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Playoff Odds & Projections

2026 season forecast · 12-team CFP · CFT Model

Projected CFP Bracket

projected seeds · favorites advance

First-round byes1TTU2IU3ND4OSU

First Round

8UTAH66%

9PSU34%

5UGA81%

12JMU19%

6MIA56%

11TA&M44%

7ORE61%

10MISS39%

Quarterfinals

1TTU63%

8UTAH37%

4OSU65%

5UGA35%

3ND59%

6MIA41%

2IU66%

7ORE34%

Semifinals

1TTU44%

4OSU56%

3ND31%

2IU69%

Championship

4OSU44%

2IU56%

Champion

Indiana

SEC

16

Team	W	Conf%	CFP%	SF%	Champ%
UGAGeorgia	10.0	46	82	33	5.9
MISSOle Miss	8.5	17	43	14	2.6
TA&MTexas A&M	8.8	14	37	9	0.9
ALAAlabama	8.1	5	15	1	0.1
VANVanderbilt	7.7	4	14	3	0.4
OUOklahoma	7.8	5	13	2	0.1
TEXTexas	7.4	3	8	<1	0.0
TENNTennessee	7.5	2	7	<1	0.1
AUBAuburn	7.1	<1	2	<1	0.0
LSULSU	7.0	1	2	<1	0.0
MIZMissouri	6.5	<1	2	<1	0.1
FLAFlorida	5.6	<1	<1	0	0.0
SCSouth Carolina	5.7	<1	<1	0	0.0
MSSTMississippi State	4.8	0	0	0	0.0
UKKentucky	4.7	0	0	0	0.0
ARKArkansas	4.5	0	0	0	0.0

Big Ten

18

Team	W	Conf%	CFP%	SF%	Champ%
IUIndiana	10.3	47	97	67	31.1
OSUOhio State	9.7	25	86	51	18.2
OREOregon	9.6	14	79	34	8.3
PSUPenn State	9.9	8	62	13	1.1
IOWAIowa	8.4	3	24	4	0.6
USCUSC	8.5	2	19	3	0.1
WASHWashington	7.3	<1	6	1	0.2
ILLIllinois	7.5	<1	4	<1	0.0
MICHMichigan	7.3	<1	2	<1	0.0
NEBNebraska	5.9	<1	<1	<1	0.0
NUNorthwestern	5.5	0	<1	0	0.0
RUTGRutgers	5.8	0	0	0	0.0
MINNMinnesota	5.6	<1	0	0	0.0
WISWisconsin	5.4	0	0	0	0.0
MDMaryland	4.9	0	0	0	0.0
UCLAUCLA	4.4	0	0	0	0.0
MSUMichigan State	4.1	0	0	0	0.0
PURPurdue	3.9	0	0	0	0.0

Big 12

16

Team	W	Conf%	CFP%	SF%	Champ%
TTUTexas Tech	10.8	65	97	58	15.5
UTAHUtah	9.6	25	67	21	3.1
BYUBYU	8.1	5	16	2	0.3
ARIZArizona	7.2	1	3	<1	0.0
ISUIowa State	7.2	1	2	<1	0.0
KSUKansas State	7.3	<1	2	<1	0.0
TCUTCU	7.3	<1	1	<1	0.0
HOUHouston	7.1	<1	<1	<1	0.0
KUKansas	6.9	<1	<1	0	0.0
ASUArizona State	6.6	<1	<1	<1	0.0
UCFUCF	5.9	<1	<1	0	0.0
BAYBaylor	5.1	0	<1	0	0.0
CINCincinnati	5.3	0	0	0	0.0
WVUWest Virginia	4.7	0	0	0	0.0
COLOColorado	4.1	0	0	0	0.0
OKSTOklahoma State	3.5	0	0	0	0.0

ACC

17

Team	W	Conf%	CFP%	SF%	Champ%
MIAMiami	10.3	63	87	26	3.0
SMUSMU	8.7	15	23	1	0.1
UVAVirginia	8.2	6	10	<1	0.0
CLEMClemson	8.5	4	8	<1	0.0
LOULouisville	7.5	6	7	<1	0.0
PITTPittsburgh	7.5	2	3	<1	0.0
GTGeorgia Tech	7.1	1	1	<1	0.0
NCSUNC State	7.2	1	1	0	0.0
FSUFlorida State	6.7	<1	<1	<1	0.0
DUKEDuke	6.1	<1	<1	0	0.0
WAKEWake Forest	5.5	<1	<1	0	0.0
CALCalifornia	5.5	<1	0	0	0.0
VTVirginia Tech	4.6	<1	0	0	0.0
BCBoston College	3.8	0	0	0	0.0
UNCNorth Carolina	3.7	0	0	0	0.0
STANStanford	3.6	0	0	0	0.0
SYRSyracuse	3.3	0	0	0	0.0

Pac-12

8

Team	W	Conf%	CFP%	SF%	Champ%
SDSUSan Diego State	6.9	33	2	<1	0.0
BOISBoise State	6.4	21	<1	0	0.0
WSUWashington State	6.3	23	<1	0	0.0
FRESFresno State	6.2	11	<1	0	0.0
TXSTTexas State	5.8	11	0	0	0.0
USUUtah State	4.7	2	0	0	0.0
ORSTOregon State	3.9	<1	0	0	0.0
CSUColorado State	3.6	<1	0	0	0.0

American Athletic

14

Team	W	Conf%	CFP%	SF%	Champ%
USFSouth Florida	9.6	25	37	3	0.1
UNTNorth Texas	8.4	28	20	2	0.1
ECUEast Carolina	8.4	14	9	<1	0.0
NAVYNavy	7.8	15	4	<1	0.0
MEMMemphis	7.6	6	3	<1	0.0
TULNTulane	7.5	5	3	<1	0.0
UTSAUTSA	7.4	5	1	0	0.0
ARMYArmy	7.2	3	<1	0	0.0
TLSATulsa	4.7	0	0	0	0.0
TEMTemple	4.5	<1	0	0	0.0
FAUFlorida Atlantic	4.3	0	0	0	0.0
UABUAB	3.6	0	0	0	0.0
RICERice	3.3	0	0	0	0.0
CLTCharlotte	2.4	0	0	0	0.0

Mountain West

10

Team	W	Conf%	CFP%	SF%	Champ%
UNLVUNLV	8.2	38	6	<1	0.0
HAWHawai'i	7.6	21	2	0	0.0
UNMNew Mexico	7.4	16	<1	<1	0.0
AFAir Force	7.5	13	<1	0	0.0
NDSUNorth Dakota State	7.1	11	<1	0	0.0
SJSUSan José State	5.2	<1	0	0	0.0
WYOWyoming	5.1	<1	0	0	0.0
NEVNevada	4.6	<1	0	0	0.0
NIUNorthern Illinois	4.2	<1	0	0	0.0
UTEPUTEP	3.5	<1	0	0	0.0

Sun Belt

14

Team	W	Conf%	CFP%	SF%	Champ%
JMUJames Madison	9.5	62	50	3	0.1
ODUOld Dominion	8.3	24	8	<1	0.0
MRSHMarshall	7.1	4	<1	0	0.0
LTLouisiana Tech	6.2	3	<1	0	0.0
TROYTroy	6.5	2	<1	0	0.0
ULLouisiana	6.8	1	0	0	0.0
ARSTArkansas State	6.4	2	0	0	0.0
APPApp State	5.2	<1	0	0	0.0
GASOGeorgia Southern	5.2	<1	0	0	0.0
USASouth Alabama	5.2	<1	0	0	0.0
USMSouthern Miss	5.1	<1	0	0	0.0
CCUCoastal Carolina	4.7	<1	0	0	0.0
GASTGeorgia State	3.8	0	0	0	0.0
ULMUL Monroe	3.2	0	0	0	0.0

Mid-American

13

Team	W	Conf%	CFP%	SF%	Champ%
TOLToledo	8.9	51	17	<1	0.0
WMUWestern Michigan	7.6	17	<1	0	0.0
OHIOOhio	7.2	8	<1	0	0.0
M-OHMiami (OH)	7.3	13	<1	0	0.0
SACSacramento State	5.6	2	<1	0	0.0
BUFBuffalo	6.4	3	0	0	0.0
CMUCentral Michigan	6.2	3	0	0	0.0
EMUEastern Michigan	5.6	<1	0	0	0.0
BGSUBowling Green	5.4	1	0	0	0.0
AKRAkron	4.7	<1	0	0	0.0
BALLBall State	4.0	0	0	0	0.0
KENTKent State	3.2	0	0	0	0.0
MASSMassachusetts	3.1	0	0	0	0.0

Conference USA

10

Team	W	Conf%	CFP%	SF%	Champ%
WKUWestern Kentucky	7.6	47	<1	0	0.0
KENNKennesaw State	6.7	13	<1	0	0.0
LIBLiberty	7.3	13	<1	0	0.0
JXSTJacksonville State	7.0	15	<1	0	0.0
FIUFlorida International	6.5	7	0	0	0.0
MTSUMiddle Tennessee	5.1	1	0	0	0.0
DELDelaware	4.9	1	0	0	0.0
MOSTMissouri State	4.9	2	0	0	0.0
NMSUNew Mexico State	4.3	<1	0	0	0.0
SHSUSam Houston	3.2	0	0	0	0.0

FBS Independents

2

Team	W	Conf%	CFP%	SF%	Champ%
NDNotre Dame	10.6	0	95	44	8.1
CONNUConn	7.6	0	2	<1	0.0

National Title Odds

top 14 · win it all

#	Team	%
1	IUIndiana	31.1
2	OSUOhio State	18.2
3	TTUTexas Tech	15.5
4	OREOregon	8.3
5	NDNotre Dame	8.1
6	UGAGeorgia	5.9
7	UTAHUtah	3.1
8	MIAMiami	3.0
9	MISSOle Miss	2.6
10	PSUPenn State	1.1
11	TA&MTexas A&M	0.9
12	IOWAIowa	0.6
13	VANVanderbilt	0.4
14	BYUBYU	0.3

Playoff Field Odds

top 14 · make the CFP

#	Team	%
1	TTUTexas Tech	97.4
2	IUIndiana	96.8
3	NDNotre Dame	94.5
4	MIAMiami	87.4
5	OSUOhio State	86.1
6	UGAGeorgia	82.0
7	OREOregon	79.4
8	UTAHUtah	67.3
9	PSUPenn State	62.5
10	JMUJames Madison	49.6
11	MISSOle Miss	42.7
12	TA&MTexas A&M	37.1
13	USFSouth Florida	36.8
14	IOWAIowa	24.1