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CFB Betting Edge

2024 · Week 8 · FBS · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 8 backtest · FBS · 59 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
36–2361%
ATS vs close
27–31 · 1P47%
Model margin MAE
12.3
Market margin MAE
11.0
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Rice @ TulaneFinal 10–24
Model
pred Tulane 20.5 · actual Tulane 14
winner Tulane ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Rice +21.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.5 · mkt 7.5 · closer
Virginia @ ClemsonFinal 31–48
Model
pred Clemson 19.8 · actual Clemson 17
winner Clemson ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Virginia +20.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.8 · mkt 3.0 · closer
UCF @ Iowa StateFinal 35–38
Model
pred Iowa State 19.5 · actual Iowa State 3
winner Iowa State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa State -13.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.5 · mkt 10.0 · mkt closer
Kent State @ Bowling GreenFinal 6–27
Model
pred Bowling Green 18.8 · actual Bowling Green 21
winner Bowling Green ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kent State +24.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.2 · mkt 3.0 · closer
Hawai'i @ Washington StateFinal 10–42
Model
pred Washington State 15.4 · actual Washington State 32
winner Washington State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Hawai'i +18.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.6 · mkt 13.5 · mkt closer
North Texas @ MemphisFinal 44–52
Model
pred Memphis 15.0 · actual Memphis 8
winner Memphis ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Memphis -10.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.0 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Charlotte @ NavyFinal 17–51
Model
pred Navy 14.5 · actual Navy 34
winner Navy ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Charlotte +16.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.5 · mkt 17.5 · mkt closer
East Carolina @ ArmyFinal 28–45
Model
pred Army 13.8 · actual Army 17
winner Army ✓
ATS vs close
leaned East Carolina +17.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.2 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Baylor @ Texas TechFinal 59–35
Model
pred Texas Tech 12.7 · actual Baylor 24
winner Texas Tech ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Texas Tech -4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 36.7 · mkt 28.5 · mkt closer
Auburn @ MissouriFinal 17–21
Model
pred Missouri 12.3 · actual Missouri 4
winner Missouri ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Missouri -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.3 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Wyoming @ San José StateFinal 14–24
Model
pred San José State 11.5 · actual San José State 10
winner San José State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Wyoming +13.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.5 · mkt 3.0 · closer
UAB @ South FloridaFinal 25–35
Model
pred South Florida 11.1 · actual South Florida 10
winner South Florida ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UAB +14.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.1 · mkt 4.0 · closer
Georgia @ TexasFinal 30–15
Model
pred Texas 10.3 · actual Georgia 15
winner Texas ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Texas -4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 25.3 · mkt 19.0 · mkt closer
South Carolina @ OklahomaFinal 35–9
Model
pred Oklahoma 10.2 · actual South Carolina 26
winner Oklahoma ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma +1.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 36.2 · mkt 25.0 · mkt closer
Ohio @ Miami (OH)Final 20–30
Model
pred Miami (OH) 9.4 · actual Miami (OH) 10
winner Miami (OH) ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Miami (OH) -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.6 · mkt 6.5 · closer
Boston College @ Virginia TechFinal 21–42
Model
pred Virginia Tech 8.1 · actual Virginia Tech 21
winner Virginia Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Boston College +8.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.9 · mkt 12.5 · mkt closer
Ball State @ VanderbiltFinal 14–24
Model
pred Vanderbilt 8.0 · actual Vanderbilt 10
winner Vanderbilt ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ball State +27.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.0 · mkt 17.5 · closer
NC State @ CaliforniaFinal 24–23
Model
pred California 7.2 · actual NC State 1
winner California ✗
ATS vs close
leaned NC State +9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.2 · mkt 10.5 · closer
TCU @ UtahFinal 13–7
Model
pred Utah 7.1 · actual TCU 6
winner Utah ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Utah -3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.1 · mkt 9.0 · mkt closer
Florida State @ DukeFinal 16–23
Model
pred Duke 6.9 · actual Duke 7
winner Duke ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Duke -2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.1 · mkt 4.5 · closer
UNLV @ Oregon StateFinal 33–25
Model
pred Oregon State 6.4 · actual UNLV 8
winner Oregon State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State +6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.4 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Troy @ South AlabamaFinal 9–25
Model
pred South Alabama 5.9 · actual South Alabama 16
winner South Alabama ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Troy +10.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.1 · mkt 6.0 · mkt closer
Central Michigan @ Eastern MichiganFinal 34–38
Model
pred Eastern Michigan 5.4 · actual Eastern Michigan 4
winner Eastern Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Eastern Michigan -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.4 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Kennesaw State @ Middle TennesseeFinal 5–14
Model
pred Middle Tennessee 5.2 · actual Middle Tennessee 9
winner Middle Tennessee ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kennesaw State +8.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 3.8 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Georgia State @ MarshallFinal 20–35
Model
pred Marshall 5.0 · actual Marshall 15
winner Marshall ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia State +9.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.0 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
Wake Forest @ UConnFinal 23–20
Model
pred UConn 4.9 · actual Wake Forest 3
winner UConn ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UConn +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.9 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Oklahoma State @ BYUFinal 35–38
Model
pred BYU 4.6 · actual BYU 3
winner BYU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma State +8.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.6 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Houston @ KansasFinal 14–42
Model
pred Kansas 3.5 · actual Kansas 28
winner Kansas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Houston +4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.5 · mkt 23.5 · mkt closer
Florida Atlantic @ UTSAFinal 24–38
Model
pred UTSA 3.1 · actual UTSA 14
winner UTSA ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Florida Atlantic +4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.9 · mkt 10.0 · mkt closer
Colorado State @ Air ForceFinal 21–13
Model
pred Air Force 2.1 · actual Colorado State 8
winner Air Force ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Air Force +6.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.1 · mkt 2.0 · mkt closer
Arizona State @ CincinnatiFinal 14–24
Model
pred Cincinnati 1.9 · actual Cincinnati 10
winner Cincinnati ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arizona State +5.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.1 · mkt 5.0 · mkt closer
Colorado @ ArizonaFinal 34–7
Model
pred Arizona 1.8 · actual Colorado 27
winner Arizona ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 28.8 · mkt 29.5 · closer
UCLA @ RutgersFinal 35–32
Model
pred Rutgers 1.6 · actual UCLA 3
winner Rutgers ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UCLA +4.3Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.6 · mkt 7.3 · closer
Nebraska @ IndianaFinal 7–56
Model
pred Indiana 1.3 · actual Indiana 49
winner Indiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Nebraska +6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 47.7 · mkt 42.5 · mkt closer
Western Kentucky @ Sam HoustonFinal 31–14
Model
pred Sam Houston 1.0 · actual Western Kentucky 17
winner Sam Houston ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Western Kentucky +1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 18.0 · mkt 18.5 · closer
Western Michigan @ BuffaloFinal 48–41
Model
pred Buffalo 1.0 · actual Western Michigan 7
winner Buffalo ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Buffalo +1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.0 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
New Mexico @ Utah StateFinal 50–45
Model
pred Utah State 0.8 · actual New Mexico 5
winner Utah State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Utah State +1.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 5.8 · mkt 4.0 · mkt closer
Tulsa @ TempleFinal 10–20
Model
pred Tulsa 0.2 · actual Temple 10
winner Tulsa ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Tulsa +3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.2 · mkt 7.0 · mkt closer
USC @ MarylandFinal 28–29
Model
pred USC 0.8 · actual Maryland 1
winner USC ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Maryland +6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.8 · mkt 7.5 · closer
Kentucky @ FloridaFinal 20–48
Model
pred Kentucky 1.5 · actual Florida 28
winner Kentucky ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Florida +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 29.5 · mkt 30.5 · closer
Toledo @ Northern IllinoisFinal 13–6
Model
pred Toledo 1.9 · actual Toledo 7
winner Toledo ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Toledo +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.1 · mkt 10.0 · closer
Alabama @ TennesseeFinal 17–24
Model
pred Alabama 2.3 · actual Tennessee 7
winner Alabama ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Tennessee +3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.3 · mkt 10.5 · closer
Kansas State @ West VirginiaFinal 45–18
Model
pred Kansas State 2.4 · actual Kansas State 27
winner Kansas State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned West Virginia +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.6 · mkt 24.5 · mkt closer
Louisiana @ Coastal CarolinaFinal 34–24
Model
pred Louisiana 3.7 · actual Louisiana 10
winner Louisiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Coastal Carolina +6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 6.3 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
LSU @ ArkansasFinal 34–10
Model
pred LSU 6.2 · actual LSU 24
winner LSU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned LSU -3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 17.8 · mkt 21.0 · closer
Miami @ LouisvilleFinal 52–45
Model
pred Miami 7.8 · actual Miami 7
winner Miami ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Miami -4.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.8 · mkt 2.5 · closer
Arkansas State @ Southern MissFinal 44–28
Model
pred Arkansas State 7.9 · actual Arkansas State 16
winner Arkansas State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arkansas State -7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.1 · mkt 9.0 · closer
Louisiana Tech @ New Mexico StateFinal 30–33
Model
pred Louisiana Tech 8.2 · actual New Mexico State 3
winner Louisiana Tech ✗
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico State +12.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 11.2 · mkt 15.5 · closer
Wisconsin @ NorthwesternFinal 23–3
Model
pred Wisconsin 8.4 · actual Wisconsin 20
winner Wisconsin ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Northwestern +9.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.6 · mkt 10.5 · mkt closer
Texas State @ Old DominionFinal 14–24
Model
pred Texas State 8.6 · actual Old Dominion 10
winner Texas State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Old Dominion +10.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 18.6 · mkt 20.5 · closer
Florida International @ UTEPFinal 21–30
Model
pred Florida International 10.0 · actual UTEP 9
winner Florida International ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Florida International -7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.0 · mkt 16.0 · mkt closer
Iowa @ Michigan StateFinal 20–32
Model
pred Iowa 10.5 · actual Michigan State 12
winner Iowa ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa -6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 22.5 · mkt 18.5 · mkt closer
Fresno State @ NevadaFinal 24–21
Model
pred Fresno State 10.7 · actual Fresno State 3
winner Fresno State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Fresno State -3.0Push
margin err: model 7.7 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
James Madison @ Georgia SouthernFinal 14–28
Model
pred James Madison 11.7 · actual Georgia Southern 14
winner James Madison ✗
ATS vs close
leaned James Madison -9.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 25.7 · mkt 23.5 · mkt closer
Michigan @ IllinoisFinal 7–21
Model
pred Michigan 12.9 · actual Illinois 14
winner Michigan ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Michigan -6.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 26.9 · mkt 20.0 · mkt closer
SMU @ StanfordFinal 40–10
Model
pred SMU 20.8 · actual SMU 30
winner SMU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned SMU -16.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.2 · mkt 13.5 · closer
Texas A&M @ Mississippi StateFinal 34–24
Model
pred Texas A&M 22.3 · actual Texas A&M 10
winner Texas A&M ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas A&M -21.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.3 · mkt 11.0 · mkt closer
Notre Dame @ Georgia TechFinal 31–13
Model
pred Notre Dame 25.4 · actual Notre Dame 18
winner Notre Dame ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Notre Dame -14.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.4 · mkt 4.0 · mkt closer
Oregon @ PurdueFinal 35–0
Model
pred Oregon 29.1 · actual Oregon 35
winner Oregon ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Purdue +29.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 5.9 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.