CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 8 · Mountain West · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 8 backtest · Mountain West · 6 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
3–350%
ATS vs close
1–4 · 1P20%
Model margin MAE
9.3
Market margin MAE
4.0
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Hawai'i @ Washington StateFinal 10–42
Model
pred Washington State 15.4 · actual Washington State 32
winner Washington State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Hawai'i +18.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.6 · mkt 13.5 · mkt closer
Wyoming @ San José StateFinal 14–24
Model
pred San José State 11.5 · actual San José State 10
winner San José State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Wyoming +13.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.5 · mkt 3.0 · closer
UNLV @ Oregon StateFinal 33–25
Model
pred Oregon State 6.4 · actual UNLV 8
winner Oregon State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State +6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.4 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Colorado State @ Air ForceFinal 21–13
Model
pred Air Force 2.1 · actual Colorado State 8
winner Air Force ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Air Force +6.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.1 · mkt 2.0 · mkt closer
New Mexico @ Utah StateFinal 50–45
Model
pred Utah State 0.8 · actual New Mexico 5
winner Utah State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Utah State +1.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 5.8 · mkt 4.0 · mkt closer
Fresno State @ NevadaFinal 24–21
Model
pred Fresno State 10.7 · actual Fresno State 3
winner Fresno State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Fresno State -3.0Push
margin err: model 7.7 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.