CFB
›

CFB Betting Edge

2024 · Week 8 · Big 12 · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Season202620252024
Week123456789101112131415
Week 8 backtest · Big 12 · 8 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
5–363%
ATS vs close
2–625%
Model margin MAE
19.2
Market margin MAE
16.9
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
UCF @ Iowa StateFinal 35–38
Model
pred Iowa State 19.5 · actual Iowa State 3
winner Iowa State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa State -13.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.5 · mkt 10.0 · mkt closer
Baylor @ Texas TechFinal 59–35
Model
pred Texas Tech 12.7 · actual Baylor 24
winner Texas Tech ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Texas Tech -4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 36.7 · mkt 28.5 · mkt closer
TCU @ UtahFinal 13–7
Model
pred Utah 7.1 · actual TCU 6
winner Utah ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Utah -3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.1 · mkt 9.0 · mkt closer
Oklahoma State @ BYUFinal 35–38
Model
pred BYU 4.6 · actual BYU 3
winner BYU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma State +8.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.6 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Houston @ KansasFinal 14–42
Model
pred Kansas 3.5 · actual Kansas 28
winner Kansas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Houston +4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.5 · mkt 23.5 · mkt closer
Arizona State @ CincinnatiFinal 14–24
Model
pred Cincinnati 1.9 · actual Cincinnati 10
winner Cincinnati ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arizona State +5.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.1 · mkt 5.0 · mkt closer
Colorado @ ArizonaFinal 34–7
Model
pred Arizona 1.8 · actual Colorado 27
winner Arizona ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 28.8 · mkt 29.5 · closer
Kansas State @ West VirginiaFinal 45–18
Model
pred Kansas State 2.4 · actual Kansas State 27
winner Kansas State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned West Virginia +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.6 · mkt 24.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.