CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 9 · FBS · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — FBS · Week 9 · 56 games
Navy @ Notre DameNotre Dame 96%
Model
Notre Dame -25.6 · mkt Notre Dame —
proj Navy 16.4 · Notre Dame 42.0
Total
proj 58.3
Purdue @ Penn StatePenn State 95%
Model
Penn State -24.1 · mkt Penn State —
proj Purdue 16.3 · Penn State 40.4
Total
proj 56.7
Northwestern @ OregonOregon 95%
Model
Oregon -23.5 · mkt Oregon —
proj Northwestern 16.7 · Oregon 40.2
Total
proj 56.9
UTEP @ North Dakota StateNorth Dakota State 95%
Model
North Dakota State -23.1 · mkt North Dakota State —
proj UTEP 16.5 · North Dakota State 39.6
Total
proj 56.2
UAB @ South FloridaSouth Florida 95%
Model
South Florida -23.0 · mkt South Florida —
proj UAB 17.4 · South Florida 40.4
Total
proj 57.9
Florida Atlantic @ North TexasNorth Texas 93%
Model
North Texas -20.7 · mkt North Texas —
proj Florida Atlantic 17.3 · North Texas 37.9
Total
proj 55.2
Minnesota @ IndianaIndiana 92%
Model
Indiana -19.6 · mkt Indiana —
proj Minnesota 17.2 · Indiana 36.8
Total
proj 54.0
Northern Illinois @ UNLVUNLV 91%
Model
UNLV -19.1 · mkt UNLV —
proj Northern Illinois 19.6 · UNLV 38.7
Total
proj 58.3
Florida @ GeorgiaGeorgia 89%
Model
Georgia -17.6 · mkt Georgia —
proj Florida 16.7 · Georgia 34.4
Total
proj 51.1
Oklahoma State @ Iowa StateIowa State 88%
Model
Iowa State -16.8 · mkt Iowa State —
proj Oklahoma State 17.6 · Iowa State 34.4
Total
proj 52.0
Kent State @ Sacramento StateSacramento State 86%
Model
Sacramento State -15.5 · mkt Sacramento State —
proj Kent State 20.9 · Sacramento State 36.4
Total
proj 57.2
Mississippi State @ TexasTexas 86%
Model
Texas -15.5 · mkt Texas —
proj Mississippi State 18.2 · Texas 33.6
Total
proj 51.8
Troy @ James MadisonJames Madison 86%
Model
James Madison -15.4 · mkt James Madison —
proj Troy 21.0 · James Madison 36.4
Total
proj 57.3
Arizona @ Texas TechTexas Tech 85%
Model
Texas Tech -14.6 · mkt Texas Tech —
proj Arizona 21.2 · Texas Tech 35.9
Total
proj 57.1
Sam Houston @ Missouri StateMissouri State 84%
Model
Missouri State -14.2 · mkt Missouri State —
proj Sam Houston 21.4 · Missouri State 35.6
Total
proj 57.0
Stanford @ LouisvilleLouisville 84%
Model
Louisville -14.2 · mkt Louisville —
proj Stanford 19.7 · Louisville 33.9
Total
proj 53.5
Temple @ East CarolinaEast Carolina 82%
Model
East Carolina -13.2 · mkt East Carolina —
proj Temple 21.3 · East Carolina 34.5
Total
proj 55.8
Delaware @ Western KentuckyWestern Kentucky 82%
Model
Western Kentucky -13.0 · mkt Western Kentucky —
proj Delaware 20.4 · Western Kentucky 33.5
Total
proj 53.9
Bowling Green @ Western MichiganWestern Michigan 81%
Model
Western Michigan -12.7 · mkt Western Michigan —
proj Bowling Green 19.8 · Western Michigan 32.5
Total
proj 52.3
Boston College @ DukeDuke 77%
Model
Duke -10.7 · mkt Duke —
proj Boston College 21.8 · Duke 32.5
Total
proj 54.3
South Carolina @ OklahomaOklahoma 77%
Model
Oklahoma -10.6 · mkt Oklahoma —
proj South Carolina 21.5 · Oklahoma 32.1
Total
proj 53.5
Army @ MemphisMemphis 77%
Model
Memphis -10.6 · mkt Memphis —
proj Army 19.0 · Memphis 29.6
Total
proj 48.6
California @ NC StateNC State 74%
Model
NC State -9.3 · mkt NC State —
proj California 24.3 · NC State 33.6
Total
proj 57.9
Oregon State @ Fresno StateFresno State 74%
Model
Fresno State -9.1 · mkt Fresno State —
proj Oregon State 22.8 · Fresno State 31.8
Total
proj 54.6
Colorado State @ Utah StateUtah State 73%
Model
Utah State -8.7 · mkt Utah State —
proj Colorado State 24.1 · Utah State 32.8
Total
proj 56.9
Marshall @ Old DominionOld Dominion 72%
Model
Old Dominion -8.1 · mkt Old Dominion —
proj Marshall 21.5 · Old Dominion 29.6
Total
proj 51.1
App State @ Georgia SouthernGeorgia Southern 70%
Model
Georgia Southern -7.6 · mkt Georgia Southern —
proj App State 26.0 · Georgia Southern 33.6
Total
proj 59.6
Texas State @ Boise StateBoise State 70%
Model
Boise State -7.3 · mkt Boise State —
proj Texas State 23.1 · Boise State 30.4
Total
proj 53.5
Florida International @ LibertyLiberty 65%
Model
Liberty -5.5 · mkt Liberty —
proj Florida International 23.9 · Liberty 29.4
Total
proj 53.2
Auburn @ Ole MissOle Miss 63%
Model
Ole Miss -4.6 · mkt Ole Miss —
proj Auburn 27.2 · Ole Miss 31.7
Total
proj 58.9
UConn @ Air ForceAir Force 57%
Model
Air Force -2.6 · mkt Air Force —
proj UConn 30.6 · Air Force 33.2
Total
proj 63.8
Louisiana Tech @ South AlabamaSouth Alabama 56%
Model
South Alabama -2.1 · mkt South Alabama —
proj Louisiana Tech 27.7 · South Alabama 29.9
Total
proj 57.6
Washington State @ San Diego StateSan Diego State 55%
Model
San Diego State -1.6 · mkt San Diego State —
proj Washington State 26.2 · San Diego State 27.9
Total
proj 54.1
Georgia Tech @ PittsburghPittsburgh 55%
Model
Pittsburgh -1.6 · mkt Pittsburgh —
proj Georgia Tech 27.4 · Pittsburgh 29.1
Total
proj 56.5
Clemson @ Florida StateFlorida State 52%
Model
Florida State -0.6 · mkt Florida State —
proj Clemson 28.2 · Florida State 28.8
Total
proj 56.9
Missouri @ ArkansasArkansas 50%
Model
Arkansas -0.1 · mkt Arkansas —
proj Missouri 28.8 · Arkansas 28.9
Total
proj 57.7
Washington @ NebraskaWashington 50%
Model
Washington -0.1 · mkt Washington —
proj Washington 28.8 · Nebraska 28.7
Total
proj 57.5
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia StateCoastal Carolina 52%
Model
Coastal Carolina -0.7 · mkt Coastal Carolina —
proj Coastal Carolina 27.7 · Georgia State 27.1
Total
proj 54.8
Kennesaw State @ Middle TennesseeKennesaw State 54%
Model
Kennesaw State -1.3 · mkt Kennesaw State —
proj Kennesaw State 26.9 · Middle Tennessee 25.6
Total
proj 52.5
Virginia @ Wake ForestVirginia 56%
Model
Virginia -2.2 · mkt Virginia —
proj Virginia 29.0 · Wake Forest 26.8
Total
proj 55.9
Ohio State @ USCOhio State 62%
Model
Ohio State -4.3 · mkt Ohio State —
proj Ohio State 29.6 · USC 25.2
Total
proj 54.8
Michigan @ RutgersMichigan 62%
Model
Michigan -4.4 · mkt Michigan —
proj Michigan 30.6 · Rutgers 26.2
Total
proj 56.7
New Mexico @ San José StateNew Mexico 65%
Model
New Mexico -5.4 · mkt New Mexico —
proj New Mexico 30.4 · San José State 25.0
Total
proj 55.4
Illinois @ MarylandIllinois 66%
Model
Illinois -5.9 · mkt Illinois —
proj Illinois 31.2 · Maryland 25.3
Total
proj 56.4
Kansas State @ ColoradoKansas State 67%
Model
Kansas State -6.1 · mkt Kansas State —
proj Kansas State 29.7 · Colorado 23.6
Total
proj 53.3
Jacksonville State @ New Mexico StateJacksonville State 69%
Model
Jacksonville State -6.9 · mkt Jacksonville State —
proj Jacksonville State 32.0 · New Mexico State 25.2
Total
proj 57.2
Southern Miss @ UL MonroeSouthern Miss 75%
Model
Southern Miss -9.7 · mkt Southern Miss —
proj Southern Miss 35.2 · UL Monroe 25.5
Total
proj 60.7
Miami @ North CarolinaMiami 94%
Model
Miami -21.8 · mkt Miami —
proj Miami 36.9 · North Carolina 15.1
Total
proj 52.0
Tulane @ CharlotteTulane 96%
Model
Tulane -24.2 · mkt Tulane —
proj Tulane 39.3 · Charlotte 15.1
Total
proj 54.3
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.