CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 8 · FBS · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — FBS · Week 8 · 56 games
Massachusetts @ UConnUConn 96%
Model
UConn -24.3 · mkt UConn —
proj Massachusetts 14.3 · UConn 38.6
Total
proj 52.8
Pittsburgh @ MiamiMiami 90%
Model
Miami -17.8 · mkt Miami —
proj Pittsburgh 18.8 · Miami 36.7
Total
proj 55.5
Virginia Tech @ ClemsonClemson 88%
Model
Clemson -16.7 · mkt Clemson —
proj Virginia Tech 19.9 · Clemson 36.6
Total
proj 56.5
Boston College @ Georgia TechGeorgia Tech 85%
Model
Georgia Tech -15.0 · mkt Georgia Tech —
proj Boston College 17.5 · Georgia Tech 32.5
Total
proj 49.9
West Virginia @ TCUTCU 81%
Model
TCU -12.5 · mkt TCU —
proj West Virginia 20.4 · TCU 32.9
Total
proj 53.2
South Alabama @ MarshallMarshall 80%
Model
Marshall -11.9 · mkt Marshall —
proj South Alabama 20.9 · Marshall 32.8
Total
proj 53.7
North Dakota State @ New MexicoNew Mexico 79%
Model
New Mexico -11.6 · mkt New Mexico —
proj North Dakota State 22.2 · New Mexico 33.8
Total
proj 56.0
Eastern Michigan @ OhioOhio 78%
Model
Ohio -11.1 · mkt Ohio —
proj Eastern Michigan 22.6 · Ohio 33.7
Total
proj 56.3
Sacramento State @ Ball StateBall State 75%
Model
Ball State -9.7 · mkt Ball State —
proj Sacramento State 22.3 · Ball State 32.1
Total
proj 54.4
Georgia State @ Arkansas StateArkansas State 74%
Model
Arkansas State -9.3 · mkt Arkansas State —
proj Georgia State 24.8 · Arkansas State 34.1
Total
proj 58.9
Duke @ VirginiaVirginia 72%
Model
Virginia -8.2 · mkt Virginia —
proj Duke 23.0 · Virginia 31.2
Total
proj 54.3
Utah State @ Texas StateTexas State 71%
Model
Texas State -8.0 · mkt Texas State —
proj Utah State 22.7 · Texas State 30.7
Total
proj 53.4
Middle Tennessee @ Florida InternationalFlorida International 71%
Model
Florida International -8.0 · mkt Florida International —
proj Middle Tennessee 24.5 · Florida International 32.5
Total
proj 57.0
Syracuse @ North CarolinaNorth Carolina 70%
Model
North Carolina -7.6 · mkt North Carolina —
proj Syracuse 22.8 · North Carolina 30.4
Total
proj 53.2
Rutgers @ NorthwesternNorthwestern 70%
Model
Northwestern -7.5 · mkt Northwestern —
proj Rutgers 22.8 · Northwestern 30.3
Total
proj 53.1
Rice @ Florida AtlanticFlorida Atlantic 67%
Model
Florida Atlantic -6.1 · mkt Florida Atlantic —
proj Rice 22.9 · Florida Atlantic 29.0
Total
proj 51.9
Bowling Green @ BuffaloBuffalo 66%
Model
Buffalo -5.9 · mkt Buffalo —
proj Bowling Green 25.3 · Buffalo 31.3
Total
proj 56.6
Western Michigan @ ToledoToledo 65%
Model
Toledo -5.6 · mkt Toledo —
proj Western Michigan 23.1 · Toledo 28.7
Total
proj 51.8
Baylor @ KansasKansas 65%
Model
Kansas -5.5 · mkt Kansas —
proj Baylor 24.2 · Kansas 29.7
Total
proj 53.9
Boise State @ Washington StateWashington State 63%
Model
Washington State -4.8 · mkt Washington State —
proj Boise State 22.3 · Washington State 27.1
Total
proj 49.5
East Carolina @ MemphisMemphis 61%
Model
Memphis -4.1 · mkt Memphis —
proj East Carolina 25.6 · Memphis 29.7
Total
proj 55.4
Louisiana @ Southern MissSouthern Miss 61%
Model
Southern Miss -3.8 · mkt Southern Miss —
proj Louisiana 24.6 · Southern Miss 28.4
Total
proj 53.1
Iowa State @ ArizonaArizona 60%
Model
Arizona -3.7 · mkt Arizona —
proj Iowa State 28.4 · Arizona 32.0
Total
proj 60.4
San José State @ NevadaNevada 58%
Model
Nevada -3.0 · mkt Nevada —
proj San José State 24.4 · Nevada 27.4
Total
proj 51.8
Kansas State @ Arizona StateArizona State 57%
Model
Arizona State -2.4 · mkt Arizona State —
proj Kansas State 25.3 · Arizona State 27.7
Total
proj 53.0
Liberty @ Kennesaw StateKennesaw State 56%
Model
Kennesaw State -2.1 · mkt Kennesaw State —
proj Liberty 25.5 · Kennesaw State 27.6
Total
proj 53.2
Colorado @ Oklahoma StateOklahoma State 54%
Model
Oklahoma State -1.4 · mkt Oklahoma State —
proj Colorado 26.7 · Oklahoma State 28.1
Total
proj 54.9
North Texas @ NavyNavy 54%
Model
Navy -1.3 · mkt Navy —
proj North Texas 30.7 · Navy 32.0
Total
proj 62.7
Texas A&M @ AlabamaAlabama 54%
Model
Alabama -1.3 · mkt Alabama —
proj Texas A&M 25.3 · Alabama 26.6
Total
proj 51.8
Missouri State @ DelawareDelaware 53%
Model
Delaware -1.2 · mkt Delaware —
proj Missouri State 25.7 · Delaware 26.9
Total
proj 52.5
Michigan State @ UCLAUCLA 52%
Model
UCLA -0.7 · mkt UCLA —
proj Michigan State 26.8 · UCLA 27.6
Total
proj 54.4
Akron @ Kent StateKent State 51%
Model
Kent State -0.4 · mkt Kent State —
proj Akron 26.5 · Kent State 26.9
Total
proj 53.3
Miami (OH) @ Central MichiganMiami (OH) 51%
Model
Miami (OH) -0.4 · mkt Miami (OH) —
proj Miami (OH) 28.1 · Central Michigan 27.7
Total
proj 55.7
New Mexico State @ Sam HoustonNew Mexico State 54%
Model
New Mexico State -1.4 · mkt New Mexico State —
proj New Mexico State 27.9 · Sam Houston 26.5
Total
proj 54.4
Old Dominion @ Louisiana TechOld Dominion 55%
Model
Old Dominion -1.6 · mkt Old Dominion —
proj Old Dominion 28.0 · Louisiana Tech 26.4
Total
proj 54.4
Air Force @ WyomingAir Force 59%
Model
Air Force -3.1 · mkt Air Force —
proj Air Force 29.0 · Wyoming 25.9
Total
proj 54.9
Tennessee @ South CarolinaTennessee 65%
Model
Tennessee -5.5 · mkt Tennessee —
proj Tennessee 28.9 · South Carolina 23.4
Total
proj 52.2
Vanderbilt @ KentuckyVanderbilt 67%
Model
Vanderbilt -6.4 · mkt Vanderbilt —
proj Vanderbilt 29.0 · Kentucky 22.6
Total
proj 51.7
Hawai'i @ Northern IllinoisHawai'i 68%
Model
Hawai'i -6.7 · mkt Hawai'i —
proj Hawai'i 32.1 · Northern Illinois 25.4
Total
proj 57.5
NC State @ StanfordNC State 70%
Model
NC State -7.3 · mkt NC State —
proj NC State 30.9 · Stanford 23.6
Total
proj 54.5
Oregon @ IllinoisOregon 70%
Model
Oregon -7.5 · mkt Oregon —
proj Oregon 31.5 · Illinois 23.9
Total
proj 55.4
San Diego State @ Colorado StateSan Diego State 72%
Model
San Diego State -8.1 · mkt San Diego State —
proj San Diego State 33.4 · Colorado State 25.2
Total
proj 58.6
Oklahoma @ Mississippi StateOklahoma 74%
Model
Oklahoma -9.2 · mkt Oklahoma —
proj Oklahoma 31.8 · Mississippi State 22.6
Total
proj 54.4
Indiana @ MichiganIndiana 75%
Model
Indiana -9.5 · mkt Indiana —
proj Indiana 30.9 · Michigan 21.4
Total
proj 52.2
James Madison @ App StateJames Madison 88%
Model
James Madison -16.6 · mkt James Madison —
proj James Madison 35.0 · App State 18.5
Total
proj 53.5
Texas Tech @ CincinnatiTexas Tech 91%
Model
Texas Tech -19.1 · mkt Texas Tech —
proj Texas Tech 40.5 · Cincinnati 21.5
Total
proj 62.0
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.