CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 7 · FBS · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Notre Dame @ BYU9.8 pt gap
Model vs mktNotre Dame -0.7 · mkt Notre Dame ~-10.5
LeanBYU +10.5
Best priceBYU +10.5 -110best of 1
WinNotre Dame 52%
Kansas @ Kansas State3.1 pt gap
Model vs mktKansas State -5.4 · mkt Kansas State ~-8.5
LeanKansas +8.5
Best priceKansas +8.5 -110best of 1
WinKansas State 65%
Auburn @ Georgia2.5 pt gap
Model vs mktGeorgia -14.0 · mkt Georgia ~-16.5
LeanAuburn +16.5
Best priceAuburn +16.5 -110best of 1
WinGeorgia 84%
Ohio State @ Indiana1.7 pt gap
Model vs mktIndiana -3.2 · mkt Indiana ~-1.5
LeanIndiana -1.5
Best priceIndiana -1.5 -102best of 2
WinIndiana 59%
Alabama @ Tennessee0.1 pt gap
Model vs mktAlabama -1.6 · mkt Alabama ~-1.5
LeanAlabama -1.5
Best priceAlabama -1.5 -110best of 1
WinAlabama 55%
Full Slate — FBS · Week 7 · 59 games
Notre Dame @ BYUNotre Dame 52%
Model
Notre Dame -0.7 · mkt Notre Dame ~-10.5
proj Notre Dame 27.0 · BYU 26.3
leans BYU +10.5
◆ Mid 0
BYU +10.5 -110DraftKings
Notre Dame -10.5 -110DraftKings
Kansas @ Kansas StateKansas State 65%
Model
Kansas State -5.4 · mkt Kansas State ~-8.5
proj Kansas 25.1 · Kansas State 30.5
leans Kansas +8.5
◆ Mid 0
Kansas State -8.5 -110DraftKings
Kansas +8.5 -110DraftKings
Auburn @ GeorgiaGeorgia 84%
Model
Georgia -14.0 · mkt Georgia ~-16.5
proj Auburn 21.3 · Georgia 35.3
leans Auburn +16.5
◆ Mid 0
Georgia -16.5 -110DraftKings
Auburn +16.5 -110DraftKings
Ohio State @ IndianaIndiana 59%
Model
Indiana -3.2 · mkt Indiana ~-1.5
proj Ohio State 30.0 · Indiana 33.2
leans Indiana -1.5
◆ Mid 0
Indiana -1.5 -102FanDuel
Ohio State +1.5 -120FanDuel
Alabama @ TennesseeAlabama 55%
Model
Alabama -1.6 · mkt Alabama ~-1.5
proj Alabama 29.5 · Tennessee 27.8
leans Alabama -1.5
◆ Mid 0
Tennessee +1.5 -110DraftKings
Alabama -1.5 -110DraftKings
Kent State @ South FloridaSouth Florida 98%
Model
South Florida -30.8 · mkt South Florida —
proj Kent State 12.1 · South Florida 42.9
Total
proj 54.9
Georgia State @ James MadisonJames Madison 98%
Model
James Madison -28.5 · mkt James Madison —
proj Georgia State 13.9 · James Madison 42.4
Total
proj 56.2
Nevada @ North Dakota StateNorth Dakota State 94%
Model
North Dakota State -21.8 · mkt North Dakota State —
proj Nevada 17.5 · North Dakota State 39.3
Total
proj 56.9
Nebraska @ OregonOregon 90%
Model
Oregon -18.4 · mkt Oregon —
proj Nebraska 18.0 · Oregon 36.4
Total
proj 54.4
Kentucky @ OklahomaOklahoma 88%
Model
Oklahoma -16.7 · mkt Oklahoma —
proj Kentucky 19.2 · Oklahoma 35.8
Total
proj 55.0
Florida Atlantic @ ArmyArmy 88%
Model
Army -16.5 · mkt Army —
proj Florida Atlantic 17.8 · Army 34.3
Total
proj 52.1
Florida State @ MiamiMiami 87%
Model
Miami -16.0 · mkt Miami —
proj Florida State 20.0 · Miami 36.1
Total
proj 56.1
Massachusetts @ BuffaloBuffalo 85%
Model
Buffalo -14.8 · mkt Buffalo —
proj Massachusetts 21.1 · Buffalo 35.9
Total
proj 57.0
Charlotte @ TempleTemple 84%
Model
Temple -14.2 · mkt Temple —
proj Charlotte 18.7 · Temple 32.9
Total
proj 51.6
Mississippi State @ LSULSU 84%
Model
LSU -14.2 · mkt LSU —
proj Mississippi State 21.2 · LSU 35.3
Total
proj 56.5
Arizona State @ Texas TechTexas Tech 83%
Model
Texas Tech -13.4 · mkt Texas Tech —
proj Arizona State 20.6 · Texas Tech 34.1
Total
proj 54.7
Akron @ Miami (OH)Miami (OH) 81%
Model
Miami (OH) -12.3 · mkt Miami (OH) —
proj Akron 19.1 · Miami (OH) 31.4
Total
proj 50.6
Oklahoma State @ HoustonHouston 79%
Model
Houston -11.6 · mkt Houston —
proj Oklahoma State 21.4 · Houston 33.0
Total
proj 54.4
Georgia Southern @ Old DominionOld Dominion 79%
Model
Old Dominion -11.4 · mkt Old Dominion —
proj Georgia Southern 23.1 · Old Dominion 34.5
Total
proj 57.6
Missouri @ Ole MissOle Miss 79%
Model
Ole Miss -11.2 · mkt Ole Miss —
proj Missouri 24.2 · Ole Miss 35.4
Total
proj 59.6
Arkansas @ VanderbiltVanderbilt 78%
Model
Vanderbilt -10.9 · mkt Vanderbilt —
proj Arkansas 22.2 · Vanderbilt 33.1
Total
proj 55.3
Colorado State @ Texas StateTexas State 78%
Model
Texas State -10.8 · mkt Texas State —
proj Colorado State 22.4 · Texas State 33.2
Total
proj 55.7
Ball State @ Bowling GreenBowling Green 77%
Model
Bowling Green -10.7 · mkt Bowling Green —
proj Ball State 20.7 · Bowling Green 31.4
Total
proj 52.1
North Carolina @ DukeDuke 77%
Model
Duke -10.6 · mkt Duke —
proj North Carolina 23.7 · Duke 34.3
Total
proj 57.9
Ohio @ Sacramento StateSacramento State 72%
Model
Sacramento State -8.1 · mkt Sacramento State —
proj Ohio 22.7 · Sacramento State 30.9
Total
proj 53.6
Northern Illinois @ WyomingWyoming 68%
Model
Wyoming -6.8 · mkt Wyoming —
proj Northern Illinois 23.8 · Wyoming 30.6
Total
proj 54.4
Florida International @ Jacksonville StateJacksonville State 68%
Model
Jacksonville State -6.7 · mkt Jacksonville State —
proj Florida International 24.4 · Jacksonville State 31.1
Total
proj 55.6
Fresno State @ San Diego StateSan Diego State 67%
Model
San Diego State -6.3 · mkt San Diego State —
proj Fresno State 23.9 · San Diego State 30.2
Total
proj 54.1
New Mexico @ Hawai'iHawai'i 64%
Model
Hawai'i -5.3 · mkt Hawai'i —
proj New Mexico 24.5 · Hawai'i 29.8
Total
proj 54.3
Wake Forest @ CaliforniaCalifornia 62%
Model
California -4.4 · mkt California —
proj Wake Forest 25.8 · California 30.1
Total
proj 55.9
Delaware @ Middle TennesseeMiddle Tennessee 62%
Model
Middle Tennessee -4.2 · mkt Middle Tennessee —
proj Delaware 25.1 · Middle Tennessee 29.3
Total
proj 54.4
Arkansas State @ Southern MissSouthern Miss 59%
Model
Southern Miss -3.2 · mkt Southern Miss —
proj Arkansas State 26.9 · Southern Miss 30.1
Total
proj 57.0
Memphis @ TulaneTulane 58%
Model
Tulane -3.0 · mkt Tulane —
proj Memphis 26.5 · Tulane 29.4
Total
proj 55.9
UNLV @ Air ForceAir Force 55%
Model
Air Force -2.0 · mkt Air Force —
proj UNLV 31.0 · Air Force 32.9
Total
proj 63.9
Penn State @ MichiganMichigan 53%
Model
Michigan -1.2 · mkt Michigan —
proj Penn State 27.4 · Michigan 28.6
Total
proj 56.0
App State @ Coastal CarolinaCoastal Carolina 53%
Model
Coastal Carolina -1.2 · mkt Coastal Carolina —
proj App State 27.7 · Coastal Carolina 28.9
Total
proj 56.6
Troy @ LouisianaLouisiana 51%
Model
Louisiana -0.3 · mkt Louisiana —
proj Troy 26.9 · Louisiana 27.2
Total
proj 54.1
Rutgers @ MarylandRutgers 51%
Model
Rutgers -0.3 · mkt Rutgers —
proj Rutgers 26.1 · Maryland 25.7
Total
proj 51.8
Western Michigan @ Central MichiganWestern Michigan 52%
Model
Western Michigan -0.6 · mkt Western Michigan —
proj Western Michigan 28.6 · Central Michigan 28.0
Total
proj 56.7
San José State @ UTEPSan José State 54%
Model
San José State -1.6 · mkt San José State —
proj San José State 26.7 · UTEP 25.1
Total
proj 51.8
Kennesaw State @ Missouri StateKennesaw State 56%
Model
Kennesaw State -2.3 · mkt Kennesaw State —
proj Kennesaw State 26.4 · Missouri State 24.1
Total
proj 50.5
Northwestern @ Michigan StateNorthwestern 58%
Model
Northwestern -2.8 · mkt Northwestern —
proj Northwestern 27.1 · Michigan State 24.2
Total
proj 51.3
Cincinnati @ West VirginiaCincinnati 62%
Model
Cincinnati -4.5 · mkt Cincinnati —
proj Cincinnati 27.1 · West Virginia 22.7
Total
proj 49.8
Pittsburgh @ Boston CollegePittsburgh 70%
Model
Pittsburgh -7.5 · mkt Pittsburgh —
proj Pittsburgh 32.8 · Boston College 25.3
Total
proj 58.1
Louisiana Tech @ UL MonroeLouisiana Tech 74%
Model
Louisiana Tech -9.2 · mkt Louisiana Tech —
proj Louisiana Tech 34.9 · UL Monroe 25.8
Total
proj 60.7
Georgia Tech @ Virginia TechGeorgia Tech 75%
Model
Georgia Tech -9.4 · mkt Georgia Tech —
proj Georgia Tech 31.9 · Virginia Tech 22.5
Total
proj 54.3
Toledo @ Eastern MichiganToledo 76%
Model
Toledo -10.1 · mkt Toledo —
proj Toledo 32.7 · Eastern Michigan 22.6
Total
proj 55.3
Louisville @ SyracuseLouisville 82%
Model
Louisville -12.8 · mkt Louisville —
proj Louisville 35.9 · Syracuse 23.1
Total
proj 59.0
Washington State @ Oregon StateWashington State 82%
Model
Washington State -13.0 · mkt Washington State —
proj Washington State 31.1 · Oregon State 18.1
Total
proj 49.2
Washington @ PurdueWashington 83%
Model
Washington -13.5 · mkt Washington —
proj Washington 35.6 · Purdue 22.1
Total
proj 57.8
East Carolina @ UABEast Carolina 87%
Model
East Carolina -16.1 · mkt East Carolina —
proj East Carolina 34.0 · UAB 18.0
Total
proj 52.0
Western Kentucky @ Sam HoustonWestern Kentucky 92%
Model
Western Kentucky -20.2 · mkt Western Kentucky —
proj Western Kentucky 38.8 · Sam Houston 18.6
Total
proj 57.5
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.