CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 6 · FBS · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Texas @ Oklahoma13.0 pt gap
Model vs mktOklahoma -6.8 · mkt Oklahoma ~+6.2
LeanOklahoma +6.2
Best priceOklahoma +6.5 -110best of 3
WinOklahoma 68%
USC @ Penn State6.4 pt gap
Model vs mktPenn State -4.9 · mkt Penn State ~+1.5
LeanPenn State +1.5
Best pricePenn State +1.5 -110best of 1
WinPenn State 64%
Georgia @ Alabama2.1 pt gap
Model vs mktGeorgia -4.8 · mkt Georgia ~-2.7
LeanGeorgia -2.7
Best priceGeorgia -2.5 -122best of 3
WinGeorgia 63%
Full Slate — FBS · Week 6 · 58 games
Texas @ OklahomaOklahoma 68%
Model
Oklahoma -6.8 · mkt Oklahoma ~+6.2
proj Texas 24.7 · Oklahoma 31.5
leans Oklahoma +6.2
◆ Mid 0.5
Oklahoma +6.5 -110FanDuel
Texas -6 -110DraftKings
USC @ Penn StatePenn State 64%
Model
Penn State -4.9 · mkt Penn State ~+1.5
proj USC 24.9 · Penn State 29.8
leans Penn State +1.5
◆ Mid 0
Penn State +1.5 -110DraftKings
USC -1.5 -110DraftKings
Georgia @ AlabamaGeorgia 63%
Model
Georgia -4.8 · mkt Georgia ~-2.7
proj Georgia 30.8 · Alabama 26.1
leans Georgia -2.7
◆ Mid 0.5
Alabama +3 -110DraftKings
Georgia -2.5 -122FanDuel
Maryland @ Ohio StateOhio State 99%
Model
Ohio State -34.2 · mkt Ohio State —
proj Maryland 11.0 · Ohio State 45.1
Total
proj 56.1
Stanford @ Notre DameNotre Dame 99%
Model
Notre Dame -31.0 · mkt Notre Dame —
proj Stanford 12.8 · Notre Dame 43.8
Total
proj 56.6
Charlotte @ North TexasNorth Texas 98%
Model
North Texas -29.8 · mkt North Texas —
proj Charlotte 11.5 · North Texas 41.3
Total
proj 52.8
Ball State @ NorthwesternNorthwestern 95%
Model
Northwestern -23.3 · mkt Northwestern —
proj Ball State 14.9 · Northwestern 38.2
Total
proj 53.1
Kent State @ Western MichiganWestern Michigan 92%
Model
Western Michigan -19.8 · mkt Western Michigan —
proj Kent State 16.6 · Western Michigan 36.4
Total
proj 53.1
UAB @ MemphisMemphis 91%
Model
Memphis -18.6 · mkt Memphis —
proj UAB 18.3 · Memphis 36.9
Total
proj 55.3
Rice @ East CarolinaEast Carolina 90%
Model
East Carolina -18.2 · mkt East Carolina —
proj Rice 16.7 · East Carolina 34.9
Total
proj 51.5
Sam Houston @ LibertyLiberty 89%
Model
Liberty -17.3 · mkt Liberty —
proj Sam Houston 17.4 · Liberty 34.6
Total
proj 52.0
Buffalo @ ToledoToledo 87%
Model
Toledo -16.1 · mkt Toledo —
proj Buffalo 18.9 · Toledo 34.9
Total
proj 53.8
Sacramento State @ Bowling GreenBowling Green 86%
Model
Bowling Green -15.5 · mkt Bowling Green —
proj Sacramento State 20.9 · Bowling Green 36.4
Total
proj 57.2
Syracuse @ VirginiaVirginia 86%
Model
Virginia -15.2 · mkt Virginia —
proj Syracuse 21.4 · Virginia 36.6
Total
proj 58.0
Hawai'i @ Arizona StateArizona State 85%
Model
Arizona State -14.7 · mkt Arizona State —
proj Hawai'i 19.6 · Arizona State 34.3
Total
proj 53.9
Missouri State @ Western KentuckyWestern Kentucky 83%
Model
Western Kentucky -13.5 · mkt Western Kentucky —
proj Missouri State 20.2 · Western Kentucky 33.6
Total
proj 53.8
North Carolina @ PittsburghPittsburgh 81%
Model
Pittsburgh -12.5 · mkt Pittsburgh —
proj North Carolina 20.9 · Pittsburgh 33.4
Total
proj 54.2
North Dakota State @ UNLVUNLV 78%
Model
UNLV -11.0 · mkt UNLV —
proj North Dakota State 22.5 · UNLV 33.5
Total
proj 56.0
New Mexico State @ Florida InternationalFlorida International 77%
Model
Florida International -10.4 · mkt Florida International —
proj New Mexico State 23.0 · Florida International 33.3
Total
proj 56.3
Coastal Carolina @ MarshallMarshall 75%
Model
Marshall -9.5 · mkt Marshall —
proj Coastal Carolina 22.1 · Marshall 31.7
Total
proj 53.8
Central Michigan @ OhioOhio 74%
Model
Ohio -9.2 · mkt Ohio —
proj Central Michigan 25.7 · Ohio 34.9
Total
proj 60.5
Southern Miss @ TroyTroy 71%
Model
Troy -7.7 · mkt Troy —
proj Southern Miss 24.6 · Troy 32.2
Total
proj 56.8
Duke @ Georgia TechGeorgia Tech 70%
Model
Georgia Tech -7.5 · mkt Georgia Tech —
proj Duke 21.9 · Georgia Tech 29.4
Total
proj 51.3
Louisiana @ Louisiana TechLouisiana Tech 69%
Model
Louisiana Tech -7.1 · mkt Louisiana Tech —
proj Louisiana 22.8 · Louisiana Tech 29.9
Total
proj 52.8
Houston @ Kansas StateKansas State 69%
Model
Kansas State -6.9 · mkt Kansas State —
proj Houston 23.6 · Kansas State 30.5
Total
proj 54.1
South Alabama @ Arkansas StateArkansas State 68%
Model
Arkansas State -6.6 · mkt Arkansas State —
proj South Alabama 23.9 · Arkansas State 30.5
Total
proj 54.3
Wake Forest @ NC StateNC State 67%
Model
NC State -6.1 · mkt NC State —
proj Wake Forest 24.4 · NC State 30.5
Total
proj 54.9
Florida State @ LouisvilleLouisville 65%
Model
Louisville -5.6 · mkt Louisville —
proj Florida State 24.2 · Louisville 29.8
Total
proj 54.1
South Carolina @ FloridaFlorida 65%
Model
Florida -5.5 · mkt Florida —
proj South Carolina 22.8 · Florida 28.3
Total
proj 51.1
Eastern Michigan @ AkronAkron 63%
Model
Akron -4.6 · mkt Akron —
proj Eastern Michigan 25.9 · Akron 30.5
Total
proj 56.4
Virginia Tech @ CaliforniaCalifornia 61%
Model
California -4.0 · mkt California —
proj Virginia Tech 26.2 · California 30.2
Total
proj 56.4
Boise State @ Fresno StateFresno State 55%
Model
Fresno State -1.7 · mkt Fresno State —
proj Boise State 25.3 · Fresno State 27.0
Total
proj 52.3
Wyoming @ San José StateSan José State 54%
Model
San José State -1.3 · mkt San José State —
proj Wyoming 26.9 · San José State 28.2
Total
proj 55.2
Jacksonville State @ Kennesaw StateKennesaw State 53%
Model
Kennesaw State -1.2 · mkt Kennesaw State —
proj Jacksonville State 26.6 · Kennesaw State 27.8
Total
proj 54.4
Minnesota @ PurduePurdue 50%
Model
Purdue -0.1 · mkt Purdue —
proj Minnesota 28.3 · Purdue 28.4
Total
proj 56.8
Tennessee @ ArkansasTennessee 54%
Model
Tennessee -1.6 · mkt Tennessee —
proj Tennessee 29.1 · Arkansas 27.5
Total
proj 56.5
Ole Miss @ VanderbiltOle Miss 55%
Model
Ole Miss -1.8 · mkt Ole Miss —
proj Ole Miss 30.1 · Vanderbilt 28.3
Total
proj 58.5
South Florida @ UTSASouth Florida 55%
Model
South Florida -1.9 · mkt South Florida —
proj South Florida 27.6 · UTSA 25.6
Total
proj 53.2
Washington State @ Utah StateWashington State 56%
Model
Washington State -2.3 · mkt Washington State —
proj Washington State 28.1 · Utah State 25.8
Total
proj 53.9
Texas A&M @ MissouriTexas A&M 59%
Model
Texas A&M -3.2 · mkt Texas A&M —
proj Texas A&M 29.8 · Missouri 26.6
Total
proj 56.5
UCF @ Oklahoma StateUCF 63%
Model
UCF -4.6 · mkt UCF —
proj UCF 27.5 · Oklahoma State 22.9
Total
proj 50.4
Illinois @ Michigan StateIllinois 64%
Model
Illinois -5.2 · mkt Illinois —
proj Illinois 28.9 · Michigan State 23.6
Total
proj 52.5
Air Force @ Northern IllinoisAir Force 71%
Model
Air Force -8.0 · mkt Air Force —
proj Air Force 26.6 · Northern Illinois 18.6
Total
proj 45.2
Arizona @ West VirginiaArizona 74%
Model
Arizona -9.1 · mkt Arizona —
proj Arizona 31.6 · West Virginia 22.5
Total
proj 54.1
San Diego State @ Oregon StateSan Diego State 81%
Model
San Diego State -12.7 · mkt San Diego State —
proj San Diego State 34.9 · Oregon State 22.2
Total
proj 57.0
James Madison @ Georgia SouthernJames Madison 85%
Model
James Madison -15.0 · mkt James Madison —
proj James Madison 35.2 · Georgia Southern 20.2
Total
proj 55.4
Old Dominion @ App StateOld Dominion 87%
Model
Old Dominion -16.0 · mkt Old Dominion —
proj Old Dominion 34.9 · App State 18.8
Total
proj 53.7
Indiana @ NebraskaIndiana 93%
Model
Indiana -21.2 · mkt Indiana —
proj Indiana 40.2 · Nebraska 19.0
Total
proj 59.2
Miami (OH) @ MassachusettsMiami (OH) 94%
Model
Miami (OH) -22.6 · mkt Miami (OH) —
proj Miami (OH) 40.1 · Massachusetts 17.5
Total
proj 57.7
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.