CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 5 · FBS · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Miami @ Clemson0.6 pt gap
Model vs mktMiami -7.3 · mkt Miami ~-6.7
LeanMiami -6.7
Best priceMiami -6.5 -110best of 2
WinMiami 70%
Notre Dame @ North Carolina0.3 pt gap
Model vs mktNotre Dame -23.2 · mkt Notre Dame ~-23.5
LeanNorth Carolina +23.5
Best priceNorth Carolina +23.5 -110best of 1
WinNotre Dame 95%
Full Slate — FBS · Week 5 · 56 games
Miami @ ClemsonMiami 70%
Model
Miami -7.3 · mkt Miami ~-6.7
proj Miami 30.6 · Clemson 23.3
leans Miami -6.7
◆ Mid 0.5
Clemson +7 -110DraftKings
Miami -6.5 -110BetMGM
Notre Dame @ North CarolinaNotre Dame 95%
Model
Notre Dame -23.2 · mkt Notre Dame ~-23.5
proj Notre Dame 39.1 · North Carolina 16.0
leans North Carolina +23.5
◆ Mid 0
North Carolina +23.5 -110DraftKings
Notre Dame -23.5 -110DraftKings
Wyoming @ North Dakota StateNorth Dakota State 94%
Model
North Dakota State -21.9 · mkt North Dakota State —
proj Wyoming 17.5 · North Dakota State 39.4
Total
proj 56.8
Middle Tennessee @ KansasKansas 93%
Model
Kansas -21.1 · mkt Kansas —
proj Middle Tennessee 17.7 · Kansas 38.8
Total
proj 56.5
Temple @ South FloridaSouth Florida 93%
Model
South Florida -20.5 · mkt South Florida —
proj Temple 17.0 · South Florida 37.5
Total
proj 54.5
Arkansas @ Texas A&MTexas A&M 91%
Model
Texas A&M -19.0 · mkt Texas A&M —
proj Arkansas 17.9 · Texas A&M 36.9
Total
proj 54.8
Boston College @ SMUSMU 90%
Model
SMU -18.1 · mkt SMU —
proj Boston College 16.3 · SMU 34.4
Total
proj 50.8
Vanderbilt @ GeorgiaGeorgia 89%
Model
Georgia -17.6 · mkt Georgia —
proj Vanderbilt 15.6 · Georgia 33.2
Total
proj 48.9
Purdue @ IllinoisIllinois 84%
Model
Illinois -14.1 · mkt Illinois —
proj Purdue 20.4 · Illinois 34.5
Total
proj 54.8
Utah State @ Boise StateBoise State 83%
Model
Boise State -13.7 · mkt Boise State —
proj Utah State 20.3 · Boise State 34.0
Total
proj 54.4
Maryland @ NebraskaNebraska 82%
Model
Nebraska -13.2 · mkt Nebraska —
proj Maryland 20.7 · Nebraska 33.9
Total
proj 54.6
UTEP @ New MexicoNew Mexico 82%
Model
New Mexico -13.0 · mkt New Mexico —
proj UTEP 19.9 · New Mexico 32.9
Total
proj 52.8
West Virginia @ Iowa StateIowa State 81%
Model
Iowa State -12.5 · mkt Iowa State —
proj West Virginia 19.9 · Iowa State 32.4
Total
proj 52.4
Cincinnati @ ArizonaArizona 79%
Model
Arizona -11.7 · mkt Arizona —
proj Cincinnati 22.4 · Arizona 34.1
Total
proj 56.5
Marshall @ James MadisonJames Madison 79%
Model
James Madison -11.5 · mkt James Madison —
proj Marshall 23.0 · James Madison 34.5
Total
proj 57.4
UL Monroe @ South AlabamaSouth Alabama 78%
Model
South Alabama -10.9 · mkt South Alabama —
proj UL Monroe 21.4 · South Alabama 32.2
Total
proj 53.6
San José State @ Hawai'iHawai'i 77%
Model
Hawai'i -10.7 · mkt Hawai'i —
proj San José State 24.1 · Hawai'i 34.8
Total
proj 59.0
Baylor @ Arizona StateArizona State 74%
Model
Arizona State -9.3 · mkt Arizona State —
proj Baylor 23.1 · Arizona State 32.4
Total
proj 55.5
Bowling Green @ Miami (OH)Miami (OH) 73%
Model
Miami (OH) -8.5 · mkt Miami (OH) —
proj Bowling Green 22.6 · Miami (OH) 31.1
Total
proj 53.7
Kentucky @ South CarolinaSouth Carolina 72%
Model
South Carolina -8.2 · mkt South Carolina —
proj Kentucky 22.6 · South Carolina 30.7
Total
proj 53.3
Stanford @ Wake ForestWake Forest 71%
Model
Wake Forest -7.9 · mkt Wake Forest —
proj Stanford 24.5 · Wake Forest 32.4
Total
proj 56.8
Fresno State @ Washington StateWashington State 69%
Model
Washington State -6.9 · mkt Washington State —
proj Fresno State 25.1 · Washington State 32.0
Total
proj 57.1
Florida @ MissouriMissouri 68%
Model
Missouri -6.6 · mkt Missouri —
proj Florida 25.3 · Missouri 31.8
Total
proj 57.1
Akron @ Central MichiganCentral Michigan 67%
Model
Central Michigan -6.3 · mkt Central Michigan —
proj Akron 23.1 · Central Michigan 29.4
Total
proj 52.5
Auburn @ TennesseeTennessee 66%
Model
Tennessee -5.7 · mkt Tennessee —
proj Auburn 23.0 · Tennessee 28.7
Total
proj 51.8
Virginia @ Florida StateFlorida State 64%
Model
Florida State -5.2 · mkt Florida State —
proj Virginia 24.6 · Florida State 29.8
Total
proj 54.5
Michigan State @ WisconsinWisconsin 64%
Model
Wisconsin -5.1 · mkt Wisconsin —
proj Michigan State 24.5 · Wisconsin 29.6
Total
proj 54.0
Texas State @ San Diego StateSan Diego State 60%
Model
San Diego State -3.8 · mkt San Diego State —
proj Texas State 23.7 · San Diego State 27.4
Total
proj 51.1
Arkansas State @ LouisianaLouisiana 58%
Model
Louisiana -2.9 · mkt Louisiana —
proj Arkansas State 26.9 · Louisiana 29.7
Total
proj 56.6
Oregon State @ Colorado StateColorado State 57%
Model
Colorado State -2.6 · mkt Colorado State —
proj Oregon State 25.1 · Colorado State 27.7
Total
proj 52.8
Louisville @ NC StateLouisville 51%
Model
Louisville -0.3 · mkt Louisville —
proj Louisville 27.4 · NC State 27.0
Total
proj 54.4
Western Michigan @ BuffaloWestern Michigan 54%
Model
Western Michigan -1.3 · mkt Western Michigan —
proj Western Michigan 28.0 · Buffalo 26.6
Total
proj 54.6
Army @ Louisiana TechArmy 54%
Model
Army -1.5 · mkt Army —
proj Army 26.4 · Louisiana Tech 24.9
Total
proj 51.3
Liberty @ DelawareLiberty 57%
Model
Liberty -2.6 · mkt Liberty —
proj Liberty 31.3 · Delaware 28.7
Total
proj 60.0
Georgia Southern @ Coastal CarolinaGeorgia Southern 58%
Model
Georgia Southern -2.8 · mkt Georgia Southern —
proj Georgia Southern 27.7 · Coastal Carolina 25.0
Total
proj 52.7
Pittsburgh @ Virginia TechPittsburgh 62%
Model
Pittsburgh -4.4 · mkt Pittsburgh —
proj Pittsburgh 31.2 · Virginia Tech 26.8
Total
proj 57.9
Ohio State @ IowaOhio State 70%
Model
Ohio State -7.4 · mkt Ohio State —
proj Ohio State 31.9 · Iowa 24.5
Total
proj 56.4
Michigan @ MinnesotaMichigan 74%
Model
Michigan -9.3 · mkt Michigan —
proj Michigan 32.6 · Minnesota 23.3
Total
proj 55.9
Western Kentucky @ New Mexico StateWestern Kentucky 75%
Model
Western Kentucky -9.4 · mkt Western Kentucky —
proj Western Kentucky 31.8 · New Mexico State 22.5
Total
proj 54.3
Eastern Michigan @ MassachusettsEastern Michigan 75%
Model
Eastern Michigan -9.7 · mkt Eastern Michigan —
proj Eastern Michigan 33.4 · Massachusetts 23.7
Total
proj 57.1
Alabama @ Mississippi StateAlabama 79%
Model
Alabama -11.5 · mkt Alabama —
proj Alabama 34.0 · Mississippi State 22.5
Total
proj 56.6
Penn State @ NorthwesternPenn State 83%
Model
Penn State -13.7 · mkt Penn State —
proj Penn State 35.2 · Northwestern 21.5
Total
proj 56.7
Texas Tech @ ColoradoTexas Tech 88%
Model
Texas Tech -16.5 · mkt Texas Tech —
proj Texas Tech 34.1 · Colorado 17.6
Total
proj 51.6
Old Dominion @ Georgia StateOld Dominion 89%
Model
Old Dominion -17.1 · mkt Old Dominion —
proj Old Dominion 37.9 · Georgia State 20.8
Total
proj 58.7
North Texas @ TulsaNorth Texas 89%
Model
North Texas -17.1 · mkt North Texas —
proj North Texas 36.8 · Tulsa 19.7
Total
proj 56.6
Memphis @ CharlotteMemphis 94%
Model
Memphis -22.1 · mkt Memphis —
proj Memphis 35.0 · Charlotte 12.8
Total
proj 47.8
Toledo @ Ball StateToledo 94%
Model
Toledo -22.6 · mkt Toledo —
proj Toledo 40.6 · Ball State 18.0
Total
proj 58.6
Indiana @ RutgersIndiana 96%
Model
Indiana -25.0 · mkt Indiana —
proj Indiana 41.1 · Rutgers 16.1
Total
proj 57.2
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.