CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 4 · FBS · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Texas A&M @ LSU6.7 pt gap
Model vs mktTexas A&M -3.7 · mkt Texas A&M ~+3.0
LeanTexas A&M +3.0
Best priceTexas A&M +3 -110best of 1
WinTexas A&M 60%
Oregon @ USC5.4 pt gap
Model vs mktOregon -0.1 · mkt Oregon ~-5.5
LeanUSC +5.5
Best priceUSC +5.5 -110best of 1
WinOregon 50%
Texas @ Tennessee3.7 pt gap
Model vs mktTexas -2.8 · mkt Texas ~-6.5
LeanTennessee +6.5
Best priceTennessee +6.5 -110best of 1
WinTexas 58%
Oklahoma @ Georgia1.6 pt gap
Model vs mktGeorgia -11.6 · mkt Georgia ~-10.0
LeanGeorgia -10.0
Best priceGeorgia -10 -110best of 1
WinGeorgia 79%
Full Slate — FBS · Week 4 · 58 games
Texas A&M @ LSUTexas A&M 60%
Model
Texas A&M -3.7 · mkt Texas A&M ~+3.0
proj Texas A&M 28.2 · LSU 24.6
leans Texas A&M +3.0
◆ Mid 0
LSU -3 -110DraftKings
Texas A&M +3 -110DraftKings
Oregon @ USCOregon 50%
Model
Oregon -0.1 · mkt Oregon ~-5.5
proj Oregon 27.7 · USC 27.6
leans USC +5.5
◆ Mid 0
USC +5.5 -110DraftKings
Oregon -5.5 -110DraftKings
Texas @ TennesseeTexas 58%
Model
Texas -2.8 · mkt Texas ~-6.5
proj Texas 30.2 · Tennessee 27.4
leans Tennessee +6.5
◆ Mid 0
Tennessee +6.5 -110DraftKings
Texas -6.5 -110DraftKings
Oklahoma @ GeorgiaGeorgia 79%
Model
Georgia -11.6 · mkt Georgia ~-10.0
proj Oklahoma 20.0 · Georgia 31.6
leans Georgia -10.0
◆ Mid 0
Georgia -10 -110DraftKings
Oklahoma +10 -110DraftKings
Central Michigan @ MiamiMiami 100%
Model
Miami -38.7 · mkt Miami —
proj Central Michigan 7.9 · Miami 46.6
Total
proj 54.4
Sam Houston @ Texas TechTexas Tech 99%
Model
Texas Tech -35.9 · mkt Texas Tech —
proj Sam Houston 15.5 · Texas Tech 51.5
Total
proj 67.0
Missouri State @ SMUSMU 98%
Model
SMU -28.6 · mkt SMU —
proj Missouri State 13.5 · SMU 42.1
Total
proj 55.7
Delaware @ VirginiaVirginia 98%
Model
Virginia -27.9 · mkt Virginia —
proj Delaware 11.5 · Virginia 39.4
Total
proj 50.9
Tulsa @ ArkansasArkansas 94%
Model
Arkansas -22.4 · mkt Arkansas —
proj Tulsa 16.6 · Arkansas 39.0
Total
proj 55.6
Illinois @ Ohio StateOhio State 94%
Model
Ohio State -22.2 · mkt Ohio State —
proj Illinois 15.7 · Ohio State 37.8
Total
proj 53.5
Massachusetts @ Sacramento StateSacramento State 94%
Model
Sacramento State -21.9 · mkt Sacramento State —
proj Massachusetts 17.4 · Sacramento State 39.3
Total
proj 56.7
Northwestern @ IndianaIndiana 93%
Model
Indiana -21.4 · mkt Indiana —
proj Northwestern 17.2 · Indiana 38.6
Total
proj 55.9
South Alabama @ KentuckyKentucky 91%
Model
Kentucky -19.1 · mkt Kentucky —
proj South Alabama 17.5 · Kentucky 36.6
Total
proj 54.1
Wisconsin @ Penn StatePenn State 90%
Model
Penn State -18.2 · mkt Penn State —
proj Wisconsin 16.7 · Penn State 34.9
Total
proj 51.6
South Carolina @ AlabamaAlabama 86%
Model
Alabama -15.6 · mkt Alabama —
proj South Carolina 18.6 · Alabama 34.3
Total
proj 52.9
Colorado State @ UTSAUTSA 86%
Model
UTSA -15.6 · mkt UTSA —
proj Colorado State 18.7 · UTSA 34.3
Total
proj 53.1
App State @ NC StateNC State 85%
Model
NC State -14.9 · mkt NC State —
proj App State 20.2 · NC State 35.2
Total
proj 55.4
Rice @ Fresno StateFresno State 85%
Model
Fresno State -14.8 · mkt Fresno State —
proj Rice 19.3 · Fresno State 34.0
Total
proj 53.3
Southern Miss @ TulaneTulane 81%
Model
Tulane -12.5 · mkt Tulane —
proj Southern Miss 20.1 · Tulane 32.7
Total
proj 52.8
Wake Forest @ LouisvilleLouisville 78%
Model
Louisville -10.9 · mkt Louisville —
proj Wake Forest 21.3 · Louisville 32.3
Total
proj 53.6
Middle Tennessee @ Jacksonville StateJacksonville State 75%
Model
Jacksonville State -9.8 · mkt Jacksonville State —
proj Middle Tennessee 23.4 · Jacksonville State 33.2
Total
proj 56.5
Oklahoma State @ West VirginiaWest Virginia 74%
Model
West Virginia -9.3 · mkt West Virginia —
proj Oklahoma State 23.6 · West Virginia 32.9
Total
proj 56.5
Minnesota @ WashingtonWashington 71%
Model
Washington -7.8 · mkt Washington —
proj Minnesota 23.7 · Washington 31.5
Total
proj 55.2
Kennesaw State @ Arkansas StateArkansas State 68%
Model
Arkansas State -6.7 · mkt Arkansas State —
proj Kennesaw State 24.8 · Arkansas State 31.5
Total
proj 56.2
San Diego State @ ToledoToledo 65%
Model
Toledo -5.5 · mkt Toledo —
proj San Diego State 23.5 · Toledo 29.0
Total
proj 52.5
Troy @ Utah StateUtah State 65%
Model
Utah State -5.4 · mkt Utah State —
proj Troy 27.3 · Utah State 32.7
Total
proj 60.0
Colorado @ BaylorBaylor 63%
Model
Baylor -4.8 · mkt Baylor —
proj Colorado 23.8 · Baylor 28.7
Total
proj 52.5
UCLA @ MarylandMaryland 62%
Model
Maryland -4.5 · mkt Maryland —
proj UCLA 25.7 · Maryland 30.1
Total
proj 55.8
Boise State @ Western MichiganWestern Michigan 60%
Model
Western Michigan -3.7 · mkt Western Michigan —
proj Boise State 21.9 · Western Michigan 25.6
Total
proj 47.5
Ball State @ Kent StateKent State 60%
Model
Kent State -3.6 · mkt Kent State —
proj Ball State 26.9 · Kent State 30.5
Total
proj 57.4
Iowa @ MichiganMichigan 56%
Model
Michigan -2.2 · mkt Michigan —
proj Iowa 25.5 · Michigan 27.7
Total
proj 53.2
Liberty @ Coastal CarolinaCoastal Carolina 54%
Model
Coastal Carolina -1.3 · mkt Coastal Carolina —
proj Liberty 26.7 · Coastal Carolina 27.9
Total
proj 54.6
Virginia Tech @ Boston CollegeBoston College 53%
Model
Boston College -1.2 · mkt Boston College —
proj Virginia Tech 28.1 · Boston College 29.3
Total
proj 57.5
Missouri @ Mississippi StateMississippi State 53%
Model
Mississippi State -1.1 · mkt Mississippi State —
proj Missouri 29.0 · Mississippi State 30.1
Total
proj 59.1
Northern Illinois @ Georgia StateGeorgia State 52%
Model
Georgia State -0.6 · mkt Georgia State —
proj Northern Illinois 24.1 · Georgia State 24.7
Total
proj 48.8
James Madison @ Old DominionJames Madison 50%
Model
James Madison -0.1 · mkt James Madison —
proj James Madison 26.9 · Old Dominion 26.8
Total
proj 53.7
Kansas State @ CincinnatiKansas State 52%
Model
Kansas State -0.6 · mkt Kansas State —
proj Kansas State 24.9 · Cincinnati 24.4
Total
proj 49.3
Vanderbilt @ AuburnVanderbilt 53%
Model
Vanderbilt -1.0 · mkt Vanderbilt —
proj Vanderbilt 26.5 · Auburn 25.5
Total
proj 52.0
Arizona @ Washington StateArizona 56%
Model
Arizona -2.1 · mkt Arizona —
proj Arizona 28.0 · Washington State 25.9
Total
proj 53.8
Hawai'i @ WyomingHawai'i 59%
Model
Hawai'i -3.4 · mkt Hawai'i —
proj Hawai'i 30.0 · Wyoming 26.6
Total
proj 56.6
Nebraska @ Michigan StateNebraska 60%
Model
Nebraska -3.5 · mkt Nebraska —
proj Nebraska 30.3 · Michigan State 26.8
Total
proj 57.1
Oregon State @ UTEPOregon State 64%
Model
Oregon State -5.1 · mkt Oregon State —
proj Oregon State 32.9 · UTEP 27.8
Total
proj 60.8
Florida Atlantic @ UL MonroeFlorida Atlantic 64%
Model
Florida Atlantic -5.2 · mkt Florida Atlantic —
proj Florida Atlantic 30.4 · UL Monroe 25.2
Total
proj 55.5
UConn @ Miami (OH)UConn 66%
Model
UConn -5.7 · mkt UConn —
proj UConn 29.6 · Miami (OH) 23.9
Total
proj 53.4
Air Force @ NevadaAir Force 67%
Model
Air Force -6.3 · mkt Air Force —
proj Air Force 29.1 · Nevada 22.8
Total
proj 51.9
Houston @ Georgia SouthernHouston 70%
Model
Houston -7.6 · mkt Houston —
proj Houston 32.7 · Georgia Southern 25.2
Total
proj 57.9
Ole Miss @ FloridaOle Miss 73%
Model
Ole Miss -8.6 · mkt Ole Miss —
proj Ole Miss 31.8 · Florida 23.2
Total
proj 55.0
Georgia Tech @ StanfordGeorgia Tech 74%
Model
Georgia Tech -8.9 · mkt Georgia Tech —
proj Georgia Tech 31.8 · Stanford 22.8
Total
proj 54.6
Louisiana @ CharlotteLouisiana 76%
Model
Louisiana -10.1 · mkt Louisiana —
proj Louisiana 32.8 · Charlotte 22.7
Total
proj 55.6
New Mexico @ New Mexico StateNew Mexico 76%
Model
New Mexico -10.2 · mkt New Mexico —
proj New Mexico 32.9 · New Mexico State 22.7
Total
proj 55.7
Clemson @ CaliforniaClemson 79%
Model
Clemson -11.4 · mkt Clemson —
proj Clemson 33.5 · California 22.1
Total
proj 55.6
South Florida @ Bowling GreenSouth Florida 90%
Model
South Florida -18.0 · mkt South Florida —
proj South Florida 37.5 · Bowling Green 19.5
Total
proj 56.9
Notre Dame @ PurdueNotre Dame 94%
Model
Notre Dame -22.5 · mkt Notre Dame —
proj Notre Dame 36.4 · Purdue 13.8
Total
proj 50.2
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.