CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 3 · FBS · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
LSU @ Ole Miss8.2 pt gap
Model vs mktOle Miss -10.2 · mkt Ole Miss ~-2.0
LeanOle Miss -2.0
Best priceOle Miss -1.5 -110best of 3
WinOle Miss 76%
Florida @ Auburn7.7 pt gap
Model vs mktAuburn -7.7 · mkt Auburn ~0.0
LeanAuburn 0.0
Best priceAuburn 0 -110best of 1
WinAuburn 71%
SMU @ Louisville1.3 pt gap
Model vs mktLouisville -2.8 · mkt Louisville ~-1.5
LeanLouisville -1.5
Best priceLouisville -1.5 -110best of 1
WinLouisville 58%
Florida State @ Alabama0.1 pt gap
Model vs mktAlabama -15.6 · mkt Alabama ~-15.5
LeanAlabama -15.5
Best priceAlabama -15.5 -110best of 1
WinAlabama 86%
Full Slate — FBS · Week 3 · 57 games
LSU @ Ole MissOle Miss 76%
Model
Ole Miss -10.2 · mkt Ole Miss ~-2.0
proj LSU 24.0 · Ole Miss 34.2
leans Ole Miss -2.0
◆ Mid 1
Ole Miss -1.5 -110DraftKings
LSU +2.5 -110FanDuel
Florida @ AuburnAuburn 71%
Model
Auburn -7.7 · mkt Auburn ~0.0
proj Florida 24.4 · Auburn 32.1
leans Auburn 0.0
◆ Mid 0
Auburn 0 -110DraftKings
Florida 0 -110DraftKings
SMU @ LouisvilleLouisville 58%
Model
Louisville -2.8 · mkt Louisville ~-1.5
proj SMU 27.3 · Louisville 30.1
leans Louisville -1.5
◆ Mid 0
Louisville -1.5 -110DraftKings
SMU +1.5 -110DraftKings
Florida State @ AlabamaAlabama 86%
Model
Alabama -15.6 · mkt Alabama ~-15.5
proj Florida State 19.4 · Alabama 35.0
leans Alabama -15.5
◆ Mid 0
Alabama -15.5 -110DraftKings
Florida State +15.5 -110DraftKings
Kent State @ Ohio StateOhio State 100%
Model
Ohio State -48.0 · mkt Ohio State —
proj Kent State 9.3 · Ohio State 57.3
Total
proj 66.6
UTEP @ MichiganMichigan 100%
Model
Michigan -38.9 · mkt Michigan —
proj UTEP 5.4 · Michigan 44.3
Total
proj 49.7
Buffalo @ Penn StatePenn State 99%
Model
Penn State -35.4 · mkt Penn State —
proj Buffalo 8.0 · Penn State 43.4
Total
proj 51.4
Kennesaw State @ TennesseeTennessee 98%
Model
Tennessee -30.3 · mkt Tennessee —
proj Kennesaw State 10.6 · Tennessee 40.9
Total
proj 51.6
New Mexico @ OklahomaOklahoma 97%
Model
Oklahoma -26.3 · mkt Oklahoma —
proj New Mexico 14.0 · Oklahoma 40.3
Total
proj 54.3
Troy @ MissouriMissouri 96%
Model
Missouri -25.0 · mkt Missouri —
proj Troy 15.5 · Missouri 40.5
Total
proj 55.9
Akron @ MinnesotaMinnesota 96%
Model
Minnesota -24.4 · mkt Minnesota —
proj Akron 16.2 · Minnesota 40.6
Total
proj 56.8
Northern Illinois @ ArizonaArizona 95%
Model
Arizona -23.7 · mkt Arizona —
proj Northern Illinois 14.4 · Arizona 38.2
Total
proj 52.6
Western Kentucky @ IndianaIndiana 94%
Model
Indiana -21.8 · mkt Indiana —
proj Western Kentucky 15.4 · Indiana 37.2
Total
proj 52.7
Arkansas State @ TCUTCU 93%
Model
TCU -20.9 · mkt TCU —
proj Arkansas State 17.3 · TCU 38.2
Total
proj 55.5
Bowling Green @ Iowa StateIowa State 92%
Model
Iowa State -20.0 · mkt Iowa State —
proj Bowling Green 17.0 · Iowa State 37.0
Total
proj 54.1
Michigan State @ Notre DameNotre Dame 92%
Model
Notre Dame -19.5 · mkt Notre Dame —
proj Michigan State 18.2 · Notre Dame 37.7
Total
proj 55.9
North Carolina @ ClemsonClemson 91%
Model
Clemson -19.0 · mkt Clemson —
proj North Carolina 18.1 · Clemson 37.1
Total
proj 55.2
Eastern Michigan @ WisconsinWisconsin 90%
Model
Wisconsin -18.6 · mkt Wisconsin —
proj Eastern Michigan 14.4 · Wisconsin 33.0
Total
proj 47.3
Kentucky @ Texas A&MTexas A&M 89%
Model
Texas A&M -17.8 · mkt Texas A&M —
proj Kentucky 17.1 · Texas A&M 34.9
Total
proj 52.0
Temple @ ToledoToledo 87%
Model
Toledo -16.3 · mkt Toledo —
proj Temple 22.0 · Toledo 38.3
Total
proj 60.4
Georgia State @ UCFUCF 86%
Model
UCF -15.4 · mkt UCF —
proj Georgia State 18.1 · UCF 33.5
Total
proj 51.7
Houston @ Texas TechTexas Tech 85%
Model
Texas Tech -15.0 · mkt Texas Tech —
proj Houston 18.8 · Texas Tech 33.8
Total
proj 52.5
Syracuse @ PittsburghPittsburgh 84%
Model
Pittsburgh -14.2 · mkt Pittsburgh —
proj Syracuse 21.9 · Pittsburgh 36.1
Total
proj 57.9
Ball State @ LibertyLiberty 84%
Model
Liberty -14.1 · mkt Liberty —
proj Ball State 20.9 · Liberty 35.0
Total
proj 56.0
Louisiana Tech @ BaylorBaylor 82%
Model
Baylor -12.8 · mkt Baylor —
proj Louisiana Tech 20.4 · Baylor 33.2
Total
proj 53.6
NC State @ VanderbiltVanderbilt 78%
Model
Vanderbilt -10.9 · mkt Vanderbilt —
proj NC State 20.3 · Vanderbilt 31.1
Total
proj 51.4
Colorado @ NorthwesternNorthwestern 76%
Model
Northwestern -10.2 · mkt Northwestern —
proj Colorado 17.5 · Northwestern 27.6
Total
proj 45.1
UAB @ LouisianaLouisiana 75%
Model
Louisiana -9.6 · mkt Louisiana —
proj UAB 21.3 · Louisiana 30.9
Total
proj 52.2
Charlotte @ App StateApp State 73%
Model
App State -8.7 · mkt App State —
proj Charlotte 23.2 · App State 31.9
Total
proj 55.2
North Dakota State @ Sacramento StateSacramento State 71%
Model
Sacramento State -7.9 · mkt Sacramento State —
proj North Dakota State 22.3 · Sacramento State 30.3
Total
proj 52.6
Tulane @ Kansas StateKansas State 69%
Model
Kansas State -7.0 · mkt Kansas State —
proj Tulane 22.5 · Kansas State 29.5
Total
proj 52.0
Georgia Southern @ Jacksonville StateJacksonville State 69%
Model
Jacksonville State -6.9 · mkt Jacksonville State —
proj Georgia Southern 24.2 · Jacksonville State 31.1
Total
proj 55.2
Coastal Carolina @ DelawareDelaware 68%
Model
Delaware -6.7 · mkt Delaware —
proj Coastal Carolina 26.1 · Delaware 32.8
Total
proj 58.9
Mississippi State @ South CarolinaSouth Carolina 67%
Model
South Carolina -6.3 · mkt South Carolina —
proj Mississippi State 23.3 · South Carolina 29.5
Total
proj 52.8
Miami (OH) @ CincinnatiCincinnati 66%
Model
Cincinnati -5.7 · mkt Cincinnati —
proj Miami (OH) 23.6 · Cincinnati 29.4
Total
proj 53.0
Virginia Tech @ MarylandMaryland 65%
Model
Maryland -5.6 · mkt Maryland —
proj Virginia Tech 27.2 · Maryland 32.8
Total
proj 59.9
Wyoming @ Central MichiganCentral Michigan 64%
Model
Central Michigan -5.2 · mkt Central Michigan —
proj Wyoming 25.6 · Central Michigan 30.8
Total
proj 56.3
Florida International @ Florida AtlanticFlorida Atlantic 56%
Model
Florida Atlantic -2.3 · mkt Florida Atlantic —
proj Florida International 26.1 · Florida Atlantic 28.4
Total
proj 54.6
Kansas @ Arizona StateArizona State 55%
Model
Arizona State -1.7 · mkt Arizona State —
proj Kansas 24.9 · Arizona State 26.6
Total
proj 51.5
James Madison @ San Diego StateJames Madison 52%
Model
James Madison -0.8 · mkt James Madison —
proj James Madison 25.4 · San Diego State 24.6
Total
proj 50.0
Marshall @ Missouri StateMarshall 53%
Model
Marshall -1.2 · mkt Marshall —
proj Marshall 31.9 · Missouri State 30.7
Total
proj 62.7
Nevada @ Middle TennesseeNevada 54%
Model
Nevada -1.5 · mkt Nevada —
proj Nevada 27.4 · Middle Tennessee 25.9
Total
proj 53.3
East Carolina @ Old DominionEast Carolina 55%
Model
East Carolina -1.6 · mkt East Carolina —
proj East Carolina 28.7 · Old Dominion 27.0
Total
proj 55.7
North Texas @ Texas StateNorth Texas 55%
Model
North Texas -1.9 · mkt North Texas —
proj North Texas 26.8 · Texas State 25.0
Total
proj 51.8
Ohio @ South AlabamaOhio 56%
Model
Ohio -2.3 · mkt Ohio —
proj Ohio 28.9 · South Alabama 26.6
Total
proj 55.5
UConn @ Southern MissUConn 60%
Model
UConn -3.8 · mkt UConn —
proj UConn 28.7 · Southern Miss 24.9
Total
proj 53.6
Virginia @ West VirginiaVirginia 65%
Model
Virginia -5.6 · mkt Virginia —
proj Virginia 29.3 · West Virginia 23.7
Total
proj 53.0
Fresno State @ San José StateFresno State 67%
Model
Fresno State -6.1 · mkt Fresno State —
proj Fresno State 33.5 · San José State 27.4
Total
proj 60.8
Western Michigan @ RiceWestern Michigan 71%
Model
Western Michigan -7.8 · mkt Western Michigan —
proj Western Michigan 32.0 · Rice 24.2
Total
proj 56.2
Georgia @ ArkansasGeorgia 85%
Model
Georgia -14.9 · mkt Georgia —
proj Georgia 36.7 · Arkansas 21.8
Total
proj 58.5
Miami @ Wake ForestMiami 88%
Model
Miami -16.4 · mkt Miami —
proj Miami 35.8 · Wake Forest 19.5
Total
proj 55.3
BYU @ Colorado StateBYU 94%
Model
BYU -22.5 · mkt BYU —
proj BYU 41.0 · Colorado State 18.5
Total
proj 59.5
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.