CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 2 · FBS · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Missouri @ Kansas6.9 pt gap
Model vs mktKansas -0.2 · mkt Kansas ~+6.7
LeanKansas +6.7
Best priceKansas +7 -110best of 2
WinKansas 50%
Oregon @ Oklahoma State5.6 pt gap
Model vs mktOregon -24.1 · mkt Oregon ~-18.5
LeanOregon -18.5
Best priceOregon -17.5 -105best of 2
WinOregon 95%
Ohio State @ Texas5.5 pt gap
Model vs mktOhio State -4.7 · mkt Ohio State ~+0.8
LeanOhio State +0.8
Best priceOhio State +1.5 -108best of 4
WinOhio State 63%
Oklahoma @ Michigan4.1 pt gap
Model vs mktOklahoma -1.6 · mkt Oklahoma ~+2.5
LeanOklahoma +2.5
Best priceOklahoma +2.5 -110best of 4
WinOklahoma 54%
Arkansas @ Utah3.9 pt gap
Model vs mktUtah -13.9 · mkt Utah ~-10.0
LeanUtah -10.0
Best priceUtah -10 -110best of 1
WinUtah 84%
Arizona State @ Texas A&M2.5 pt gap
Model vs mktTexas A&M -17.0 · mkt Texas A&M ~-14.5
LeanTexas A&M -14.5
Best priceTexas A&M -14.5 -110best of 1
WinTexas A&M 88%
Iowa State @ Iowa1.4 pt gap
Model vs mktIowa -10.6 · mkt Iowa ~-12.0
LeanIowa State +12.0
Best priceIowa State +12.5 +100best of 2
WinIowa 77%
Full Slate — FBS · Week 2 · 49 games
Missouri @ KansasKansas 50%
Model
Kansas -0.2 · mkt Kansas ~+6.7
proj Missouri 29.4 · Kansas 29.5
leans Kansas +6.7
◆ Mid 0.5
Kansas +7 -110DraftKings
Missouri -6.5 -112FanDuel
Oregon @ Oklahoma StateOregon 95%
Model
Oregon -24.1 · mkt Oregon ~-18.5
proj Oregon 37.0 · Oklahoma State 12.9
leans Oregon -18.5
◆ Mid 2
Oklahoma State +19.5 -110DraftKings
Oregon -17.5 -105FanDuel
Ohio State @ TexasOhio State 63%
Model
Ohio State -4.7 · mkt Ohio State ~+0.8
proj Ohio State 28.4 · Texas 23.7
leans Ohio State +0.8
◆ Mid 1.5
Texas 0 -110DraftKings
Ohio State +1.5 -108FanDuel
Oklahoma @ MichiganOklahoma 54%
Model
Oklahoma -1.6 · mkt Oklahoma ~+2.5
proj Oklahoma 25.1 · Michigan 23.5
leans Oklahoma +2.5
◆ Mid 0
Michigan -2.5 -110DraftKings
Oklahoma +2.5 -110DraftKings
Arkansas @ UtahUtah 84%
Model
Utah -13.9 · mkt Utah ~-10.0
proj Arkansas 21.5 · Utah 35.4
leans Utah -10.0
◆ Mid 0
Utah -10 -110DraftKings
Arkansas +10 -110DraftKings
Arizona State @ Texas A&MTexas A&M 88%
Model
Texas A&M -17.0 · mkt Texas A&M ~-14.5
proj Arizona State 17.5 · Texas A&M 34.4
leans Texas A&M -14.5
◆ Mid 0
Texas A&M -14.5 -110DraftKings
Arizona State +14.5 -110DraftKings
Iowa State @ IowaIowa 77%
Model
Iowa -10.6 · mkt Iowa ~-12.0
proj Iowa State 22.0 · Iowa 32.6
leans Iowa State +12.0
◆ Mid 1
Iowa -11.5 -110DraftKings
Iowa State +12.5 +100FanDuel
Western Kentucky @ GeorgiaGeorgia 100%
Model
Georgia -42.3 · mkt Georgia —
proj Western Kentucky 6.3 · Georgia 48.6
Total
proj 54.9
Charlotte @ Ole MissOle Miss 100%
Model
Ole Miss -39.4 · mkt Ole Miss —
proj Charlotte 8.0 · Ole Miss 47.3
Total
proj 55.3
Delaware @ VanderbiltVanderbilt 100%
Model
Vanderbilt -37.1 · mkt Vanderbilt —
proj Delaware 7.9 · Vanderbilt 45.0
Total
proj 52.8
Rice @ Notre DameNotre Dame 99%
Model
Notre Dame -36.2 · mkt Notre Dame —
proj Rice 13.0 · Notre Dame 49.2
Total
proj 62.2
Southern Miss @ AuburnAuburn 98%
Model
Auburn -30.1 · mkt Auburn —
proj Southern Miss 13.5 · Auburn 43.6
Total
proj 57.1
Bowling Green @ NebraskaNebraska 95%
Model
Nebraska -23.8 · mkt Nebraska —
proj Bowling Green 12.9 · Nebraska 36.8
Total
proj 49.7
Georgia Southern @ ClemsonClemson 95%
Model
Clemson -23.8 · mkt Clemson —
proj Georgia Southern 15.4 · Clemson 39.2
Total
proj 54.5
Louisiana Tech @ LSULSU 95%
Model
LSU -23.0 · mkt LSU —
proj Louisiana Tech 14.0 · LSU 37.1
Total
proj 51.1
Utah State @ WashingtonWashington 94%
Model
Washington -22.3 · mkt Washington —
proj Utah State 18.1 · Washington 40.3
Total
proj 58.4
Sacramento State @ Fresno StateFresno State 94%
Model
Fresno State -21.9 · mkt Fresno State —
proj Sacramento State 17.5 · Fresno State 39.4
Total
proj 56.8
South Alabama @ TulaneTulane 88%
Model
Tulane -17.1 · mkt Tulane —
proj South Alabama 17.0 · Tulane 34.1
Total
proj 51.0
App State @ East CarolinaEast Carolina 88%
Model
East Carolina -16.9 · mkt East Carolina —
proj App State 19.1 · East Carolina 36.0
Total
proj 55.1
Eastern Michigan @ Michigan StateMichigan State 85%
Model
Michigan State -14.5 · mkt Michigan State —
proj Eastern Michigan 19.0 · Michigan State 33.4
Total
proj 52.4
Middle Tennessee @ MarshallMarshall 80%
Model
Marshall -11.8 · mkt Marshall —
proj Middle Tennessee 21.0 · Marshall 32.8
Total
proj 53.7
Georgia State @ Kennesaw StateKennesaw State 79%
Model
Kennesaw State -11.2 · mkt Kennesaw State —
proj Georgia State 20.6 · Kennesaw State 31.9
Total
proj 52.5
North Dakota State @ Air ForceAir Force 77%
Model
Air Force -10.7 · mkt Air Force —
proj North Dakota State 22.0 · Air Force 32.7
Total
proj 54.6
UCF @ PittsburghPittsburgh 76%
Model
Pittsburgh -10.3 · mkt Pittsburgh —
proj UCF 23.6 · Pittsburgh 33.9
Total
proj 57.5
New Mexico State @ Hawai'iHawai'i 75%
Model
Hawai'i -9.6 · mkt Hawai'i —
proj New Mexico State 22.4 · Hawai'i 32.0
Total
proj 54.4
Washington State @ Kansas StateKansas State 75%
Model
Kansas State -9.4 · mkt Kansas State —
proj Washington State 21.2 · Kansas State 30.6
Total
proj 51.7
Duke @ IllinoisIllinois 73%
Model
Illinois -8.7 · mkt Illinois —
proj Duke 22.8 · Illinois 31.5
Total
proj 54.3
UNLV @ North TexasNorth Texas 71%
Model
North Texas -7.7 · mkt North Texas —
proj UNLV 23.5 · North Texas 31.2
Total
proj 54.6
Jacksonville State @ OhioOhio 67%
Model
Ohio -6.1 · mkt Ohio —
proj Jacksonville State 25.1 · Ohio 31.3
Total
proj 56.4
Memphis @ Boise StateBoise State 59%
Model
Boise State -3.1 · mkt Boise State —
proj Memphis 25.9 · Boise State 29.0
Total
proj 54.9
Buffalo @ Florida InternationalFlorida International 57%
Model
Florida International -2.5 · mkt Florida International —
proj Buffalo 24.5 · Florida International 26.9
Total
proj 51.4
UTSA @ Texas StateTexas State 54%
Model
Texas State -1.5 · mkt Texas State —
proj UTSA 28.2 · Texas State 29.7
Total
proj 57.8
Wake Forest @ PurduePurdue 51%
Model
Purdue -0.3 · mkt Purdue —
proj Wake Forest 27.9 · Purdue 28.3
Total
proj 56.2
Mississippi State @ MinnesotaMinnesota 50%
Model
Minnesota 0.0 · mkt Minnesota —
proj Mississippi State 27.6 · Minnesota 27.6
Total
proj 55.2
California @ SyracuseCalifornia 50%
Model
California -0.1 · mkt California —
proj California 28.0 · Syracuse 27.9
Total
proj 55.9
Old Dominion @ Virginia TechOld Dominion 55%
Model
Old Dominion -1.9 · mkt Old Dominion —
proj Old Dominion 29.8 · Virginia Tech 28.0
Total
proj 57.8
Rutgers @ Boston CollegeRutgers 61%
Model
Rutgers -3.9 · mkt Rutgers —
proj Rutgers 30.2 · Boston College 26.3
Total
proj 56.5
Tulsa @ Sam HoustonTulsa 64%
Model
Tulsa -5.1 · mkt Tulsa —
proj Tulsa 29.9 · Sam Houston 24.7
Total
proj 54.6
San Diego State @ UCLASan Diego State 65%
Model
San Diego State -5.3 · mkt San Diego State —
proj San Diego State 30.1 · UCLA 24.8
Total
proj 55.0
Tennessee @ Georgia TechTennessee 68%
Model
Tennessee -6.5 · mkt Tennessee —
proj Tennessee 33.1 · Georgia Tech 26.7
Total
proj 59.8
South Florida @ ArmySouth Florida 68%
Model
South Florida -6.6 · mkt South Florida —
proj South Florida 27.9 · Army 21.3
Total
proj 49.1
Navy @ Florida AtlanticNavy 71%
Model
Navy -7.7 · mkt Navy —
proj Navy 32.6 · Florida Atlantic 24.8
Total
proj 57.4
Alabama @ KentuckyAlabama 78%
Model
Alabama -11.1 · mkt Alabama —
proj Alabama 32.4 · Kentucky 21.3
Total
proj 53.7
Texas Tech @ Oregon StateTexas Tech 92%
Model
Texas Tech -19.9 · mkt Texas Tech —
proj Texas Tech 31.3 · Oregon State 11.4
Total
proj 42.7
Penn State @ TemplePenn State 96%
Model
Penn State -24.3 · mkt Penn State —
proj Penn State 41.9 · Temple 17.5
Total
proj 59.4
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.