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CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 13 · FBS · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Season202620252024
Week123456789101112131415
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Michigan @ Ohio State1.3 pt gap
Model vs mktOhio State -12.8 · mkt Ohio State ~-11.5
LeanOhio State -11.5
Best priceOhio State -11.5 -110best of 1
WinOhio State 82%
Full Slate — FBS · Week 13 · 65 games
Michigan @ Ohio StateOhio State 82%
Model
Ohio State -12.8 · mkt Ohio State ~-11.5
proj Michigan 19.4 · Ohio State 32.2
leans Ohio State -11.5
◆ Mid 0
Ohio State -11.5 -110FanDuel
Michigan +11.5 -110FanDuel
Purdue @ IndianaIndiana 99%
Model
Indiana -31.3 · mkt Indiana —
proj Purdue 17.9 · Indiana 49.2
Total
proj 67.1
Boston College @ MiamiMiami 98%
Model
Miami -29.4 · mkt Miami —
proj Boston College 11.0 · Miami 40.4
Total
proj 51.3
West Virginia @ UtahUtah 94%
Model
Utah -22.0 · mkt Utah —
proj West Virginia 14.7 · Utah 36.8
Total
proj 51.5
Sacramento State @ Hawai'iHawai'i 94%
Model
Hawai'i -22.0 · mkt Hawai'i —
proj Sacramento State 17.4 · Hawai'i 39.4
Total
proj 56.8
UAB @ North TexasNorth Texas 93%
Model
North Texas -20.5 · mkt North Texas —
proj UAB 16.7 · North Texas 37.2
Total
proj 53.9
Massachusetts @ Bowling GreenBowling Green 92%
Model
Bowling Green -20.2 · mkt Bowling Green —
proj Massachusetts 17.6 · Bowling Green 37.9
Total
proj 55.5
Coastal Carolina @ James MadisonJames Madison 91%
Model
James Madison -19.0 · mkt James Madison —
proj Coastal Carolina 16.6 · James Madison 35.5
Total
proj 52.1
Tulsa @ UTSAUTSA 90%
Model
UTSA -18.2 · mkt UTSA —
proj Tulsa 18.1 · UTSA 36.4
Total
proj 54.5
Georgia Tech @ GeorgiaGeorgia 90%
Model
Georgia -18.2 · mkt Georgia —
proj Georgia Tech 16.9 · Georgia 35.1
Total
proj 52.0
Florida Atlantic @ East CarolinaEast Carolina 89%
Model
East Carolina -17.7 · mkt East Carolina —
proj Florida Atlantic 19.1 · East Carolina 36.8
Total
proj 55.9
Nevada @ UNLVUNLV 88%
Model
UNLV -16.9 · mkt UNLV —
proj Nevada 20.2 · UNLV 37.1
Total
proj 57.3
Mississippi State @ Ole MissOle Miss 86%
Model
Ole Miss -15.3 · mkt Ole Miss —
proj Mississippi State 17.8 · Ole Miss 33.1
Total
proj 51.0
TCU @ Texas TechTexas Tech 84%
Model
Texas Tech -14.3 · mkt Texas Tech —
proj TCU 20.3 · Texas Tech 34.6
Total
proj 55.0
Temple @ MemphisMemphis 84%
Model
Memphis -14.0 · mkt Memphis —
proj Temple 19.0 · Memphis 33.0
Total
proj 51.9
Cincinnati @ BYUBYU 83%
Model
BYU -13.3 · mkt BYU —
proj Cincinnati 20.7 · BYU 34.1
Total
proj 54.8
Washington @ OregonOregon 81%
Model
Oregon -12.3 · mkt Oregon —
proj Washington 21.3 · Oregon 33.6
Total
proj 54.8
Sam Houston @ Florida InternationalFlorida International 80%
Model
Florida International -12.2 · mkt Florida International —
proj Sam Houston 19.5 · Florida International 31.7
Total
proj 51.3
Air Force @ New MexicoNew Mexico 79%
Model
New Mexico -11.4 · mkt New Mexico —
proj Air Force 22.3 · New Mexico 33.7
Total
proj 56.0
Southern Miss @ Old DominionOld Dominion 78%
Model
Old Dominion -10.8 · mkt Old Dominion —
proj Southern Miss 22.5 · Old Dominion 33.3
Total
proj 55.8
Nebraska @ IowaIowa 77%
Model
Iowa -10.7 · mkt Iowa —
proj Nebraska 22.0 · Iowa 32.7
Total
proj 54.6
Kennesaw State @ Western KentuckyWestern Kentucky 76%
Model
Western Kentucky -9.9 · mkt Western Kentucky —
proj Kennesaw State 21.7 · Western Kentucky 31.6
Total
proj 53.4
Kent State @ Eastern MichiganEastern Michigan 75%
Model
Eastern Michigan -9.6 · mkt Eastern Michigan —
proj Kent State 21.5 · Eastern Michigan 31.1
Total
proj 52.6
Tulane @ South FloridaSouth Florida 74%
Model
South Florida -9.0 · mkt South Florida —
proj Tulane 23.4 · South Florida 32.4
Total
proj 55.8
UTEP @ Northern IllinoisNorthern Illinois 72%
Model
Northern Illinois -8.5 · mkt Northern Illinois —
proj UTEP 22.4 · Northern Illinois 30.8
Total
proj 53.2
Baylor @ HoustonHouston 71%
Model
Houston -8.0 · mkt Houston —
proj Baylor 24.5 · Houston 32.5
Total
proj 56.9
North Dakota State @ San José StateSan José State 71%
Model
San José State -7.9 · mkt San José State —
proj North Dakota State 22.3 · San José State 30.3
Total
proj 52.6
Michigan State @ RutgersRutgers 70%
Model
Rutgers -7.7 · mkt Rutgers —
proj Michigan State 25.8 · Rutgers 33.4
Total
proj 59.2
Kansas State @ Iowa StateIowa State 69%
Model
Iowa State -7.1 · mkt Iowa State —
proj Kansas State 24.1 · Iowa State 31.2
Total
proj 55.3
Miami (OH) @ Western MichiganWestern Michigan 69%
Model
Western Michigan -7.0 · mkt Western Michigan —
proj Miami (OH) 24.3 · Western Michigan 31.3
Total
proj 55.6
New Mexico State @ Middle TennesseeMiddle Tennessee 67%
Model
Middle Tennessee -6.2 · mkt Middle Tennessee —
proj New Mexico State 24.3 · Middle Tennessee 30.5
Total
proj 54.8
Auburn @ AlabamaAlabama 67%
Model
Alabama -6.2 · mkt Alabama —
proj Auburn 25.3 · Alabama 31.6
Total
proj 56.9
South Carolina @ ClemsonClemson 65%
Model
Clemson -5.6 · mkt Clemson —
proj South Carolina 25.3 · Clemson 30.9
Total
proj 56.2
Arizona State @ ArizonaArizona 65%
Model
Arizona -5.4 · mkt Arizona —
proj Arizona State 25.0 · Arizona 30.4
Total
proj 55.4
Texas @ Texas A&MTexas A&M 64%
Model
Texas A&M -5.2 · mkt Texas A&M —
proj Texas 24.1 · Texas A&M 29.3
Total
proj 53.5
Northwestern @ IllinoisIllinois 62%
Model
Illinois -4.4 · mkt Illinois —
proj Northwestern 26.7 · Illinois 31.1
Total
proj 57.7
Tennessee @ VanderbiltVanderbilt 59%
Model
Vanderbilt -3.2 · mkt Vanderbilt —
proj Tennessee 25.1 · Vanderbilt 28.2
Total
proj 53.3
App State @ South AlabamaSouth Alabama 57%
Model
South Alabama -2.6 · mkt South Alabama —
proj App State 26.9 · South Alabama 29.5
Total
proj 56.4
Florida @ Florida StateFlorida State 57%
Model
Florida State -2.5 · mkt Florida State —
proj Florida 26.1 · Florida State 28.6
Total
proj 54.7
Minnesota @ WisconsinWisconsin 56%
Model
Wisconsin -2.1 · mkt Wisconsin —
proj Minnesota 26.1 · Wisconsin 28.2
Total
proj 54.3
Louisiana Tech @ Georgia SouthernGeorgia Southern 56%
Model
Georgia Southern -2.1 · mkt Georgia Southern —
proj Louisiana Tech 26.2 · Georgia Southern 28.3
Total
proj 54.5
Troy @ Arkansas StateArkansas State 55%
Model
Arkansas State -1.9 · mkt Arkansas State —
proj Troy 25.2 · Arkansas State 27.1
Total
proj 52.4
UCF @ ColoradoColorado 54%
Model
Colorado -1.5 · mkt Colorado —
proj UCF 23.7 · Colorado 25.2
Total
proj 48.9
Louisville @ KentuckyKentucky 53%
Model
Kentucky -0.9 · mkt Kentucky —
proj Louisville 27.3 · Kentucky 28.2
Total
proj 55.5
Oklahoma @ MissouriOklahoma 52%
Model
Oklahoma -0.8 · mkt Oklahoma —
proj Oklahoma 27.7 · Missouri 26.9
Total
proj 54.6
Duke @ Wake ForestDuke 54%
Model
Duke -1.3 · mkt Duke —
proj Duke 27.2 · Wake Forest 25.9
Total
proj 53.1
Pittsburgh @ CaliforniaPittsburgh 54%
Model
Pittsburgh -1.5 · mkt Pittsburgh —
proj Pittsburgh 27.4 · California 25.8
Total
proj 53.2
Buffalo @ AkronBuffalo 55%
Model
Buffalo -1.9 · mkt Buffalo —
proj Buffalo 28.7 · Akron 26.8
Total
proj 55.4
Liberty @ Missouri StateLiberty 55%
Model
Liberty -2.0 · mkt Liberty —
proj Liberty 28.2 · Missouri State 26.2
Total
proj 54.4
Jacksonville State @ DelawareJacksonville State 57%
Model
Jacksonville State -2.5 · mkt Jacksonville State —
proj Jacksonville State 29.0 · Delaware 26.5
Total
proj 55.5
NC State @ North CarolinaNC State 60%
Model
NC State -3.5 · mkt NC State —
proj NC State 25.6 · North Carolina 22.1
Total
proj 47.7
Toledo @ OhioToledo 60%
Model
Toledo -3.5 · mkt Toledo —
proj Toledo 31.6 · Ohio 28.1
Total
proj 59.7
Virginia @ Virginia TechVirginia 61%
Model
Virginia -3.9 · mkt Virginia —
proj Virginia 31.0 · Virginia Tech 27.1
Total
proj 58.1
Louisiana @ Georgia StateLouisiana 61%
Model
Louisiana -4.0 · mkt Louisiana —
proj Louisiana 28.4 · Georgia State 24.5
Total
proj 52.9
Central Michigan @ Ball StateCentral Michigan 61%
Model
Central Michigan -4.1 · mkt Central Michigan —
proj Central Michigan 28.4 · Ball State 24.3
Total
proj 52.7
Army @ RiceArmy 72%
Model
Army -8.2 · mkt Army —
proj Army 32.0 · Rice 23.7
Total
proj 55.7
UConn @ WyomingUConn 74%
Model
UConn -9.3 · mkt UConn —
proj UConn 31.9 · Wyoming 22.6
Total
proj 54.6
LSU @ ArkansasLSU 74%
Model
LSU -9.3 · mkt LSU —
proj LSU 31.2 · Arkansas 21.9
Total
proj 53.1
Kansas @ Oklahoma StateKansas 75%
Model
Kansas -9.7 · mkt Kansas —
proj Kansas 33.4 · Oklahoma State 23.7
Total
proj 57.1
Marshall @ UL MonroeMarshall 78%
Model
Marshall -11.2 · mkt Marshall —
proj Marshall 33.5 · UL Monroe 22.3
Total
proj 55.8
SMU @ StanfordSMU 82%
Model
SMU -12.8 · mkt SMU —
proj SMU 35.7 · Stanford 22.9
Total
proj 58.6
USC @ UCLAUSC 83%
Model
USC -13.8 · mkt USC —
proj USC 34.6 · UCLA 20.8
Total
proj 55.3
Penn State @ MarylandPenn State 86%
Model
Penn State -15.2 · mkt Penn State —
proj Penn State 38.0 · Maryland 22.8
Total
proj 60.8
Navy @ CharlotteNavy 93%
Model
Navy -20.6 · mkt Navy —
proj Navy 37.8 · Charlotte 17.2
Total
proj 54.9
Notre Dame @ SyracuseNotre Dame 96%
Model
Notre Dame -25.4 · mkt Notre Dame —
proj Notre Dame 32.2 · Syracuse 6.8
Total
proj 39.0
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.