CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 12 · FBS · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Full Slate — FBS · Week 12 · 66 games
Northern Illinois @ North Dakota StateNorth Dakota State 95%
Model
North Dakota State -22.8 · mkt North Dakota State —
proj Northern Illinois 16.7 · North Dakota State 39.5
Total
proj 56.2
UTEP @ Air ForceAir Force 93%
Model
Air Force -21.1 · mkt Air Force —
proj UTEP 19.6 · Air Force 40.8
Total
proj 60.4
Virginia Tech @ MiamiMiami 93%
Model
Miami -21.0 · mkt Miami —
proj Virginia Tech 17.3 · Miami 38.4
Total
proj 55.7
UCLA @ MichiganMichigan 93%
Model
Michigan -20.7 · mkt Michigan —
proj UCLA 18.0 · Michigan 38.6
Total
proj 56.6
Rutgers @ Penn StatePenn State 91%
Model
Penn State -18.7 · mkt Penn State —
proj Rutgers 17.2 · Penn State 35.9
Total
proj 53.1
Oklahoma State @ Arizona StateArizona State 87%
Model
Arizona State -16.3 · mkt Arizona State —
proj Oklahoma State 18.4 · Arizona State 34.6
Total
proj 53.0
UL Monroe @ App StateApp State 85%
Model
App State -14.7 · mkt App State —
proj UL Monroe 19.5 · App State 34.2
Total
proj 53.7
Georgia State @ MarshallMarshall 85%
Model
Marshall -14.6 · mkt Marshall —
proj Georgia State 21.3 · Marshall 35.9
Total
proj 57.1
Arkansas @ TexasTexas 84%
Model
Texas -14.4 · mkt Texas —
proj Arkansas 20.5 · Texas 34.9
Total
proj 55.5
Bowling Green @ ToledoToledo 84%
Model
Toledo -14.3 · mkt Toledo —
proj Bowling Green 20.0 · Toledo 34.3
Total
proj 54.3
SMU @ Notre DameNotre Dame 83%
Model
Notre Dame -13.8 · mkt Notre Dame —
proj SMU 21.5 · Notre Dame 35.2
Total
proj 56.7
Eastern Michigan @ Western MichiganWestern Michigan 83%
Model
Western Michigan -13.4 · mkt Western Michigan —
proj Eastern Michigan 20.5 · Western Michigan 33.9
Total
proj 54.4
Colorado State @ Fresno StateFresno State 81%
Model
Fresno State -12.7 · mkt Fresno State —
proj Colorado State 21.1 · Fresno State 33.8
Total
proj 55.0
North Carolina @ VirginiaVirginia 81%
Model
Virginia -12.4 · mkt Virginia —
proj North Carolina 20.5 · Virginia 32.9
Total
proj 53.4
Missouri State @ Jacksonville StateJacksonville State 78%
Model
Jacksonville State -11.0 · mkt Jacksonville State —
proj Missouri State 21.3 · Jacksonville State 32.3
Total
proj 53.5
Charlotte @ TulsaTulsa 74%
Model
Tulsa -8.9 · mkt Tulsa —
proj Charlotte 23.0 · Tulsa 31.9
Total
proj 54.8
Coastal Carolina @ LouisianaLouisiana 73%
Model
Louisiana -8.6 · mkt Louisiana —
proj Coastal Carolina 22.2 · Louisiana 30.8
Total
proj 52.9
NC State @ Florida StateFlorida State 72%
Model
Florida State -8.4 · mkt Florida State —
proj NC State 19.5 · Florida State 27.9
Total
proj 47.4
Syracuse @ Boston CollegeBoston College 71%
Model
Boston College -8.0 · mkt Boston College —
proj Syracuse 25.3 · Boston College 33.3
Total
proj 58.6
Kentucky @ MissouriMissouri 71%
Model
Missouri -7.9 · mkt Missouri —
proj Kentucky 23.3 · Missouri 31.2
Total
proj 54.5
Arkansas State @ Louisiana TechLouisiana Tech 71%
Model
Louisiana Tech -7.7 · mkt Louisiana Tech —
proj Arkansas State 23.0 · Louisiana Tech 30.7
Total
proj 53.7
Wake Forest @ Georgia TechGeorgia Tech 68%
Model
Georgia Tech -6.7 · mkt Georgia Tech —
proj Wake Forest 24.4 · Georgia Tech 31.1
Total
proj 55.5
Georgia Southern @ TroyTroy 67%
Model
Troy -6.4 · mkt Troy —
proj Georgia Southern 26.0 · Troy 32.4
Total
proj 58.4
Colorado @ CincinnatiCincinnati 66%
Model
Cincinnati -6.0 · mkt Cincinnati —
proj Colorado 22.9 · Cincinnati 28.9
Total
proj 51.8
Pittsburgh @ LouisvilleLouisville 66%
Model
Louisville -5.9 · mkt Louisville —
proj Pittsburgh 21.9 · Louisville 27.7
Total
proj 49.6
LSU @ TennesseeTennessee 65%
Model
Tennessee -5.5 · mkt Tennessee —
proj LSU 22.3 · Tennessee 27.8
Total
proj 50.2
South Alabama @ Southern MissSouthern Miss 64%
Model
Southern Miss -5.3 · mkt Southern Miss —
proj South Alabama 25.2 · Southern Miss 30.5
Total
proj 55.7
Stanford @ CaliforniaCalifornia 64%
Model
California -5.0 · mkt California —
proj Stanford 24.8 · California 29.8
Total
proj 54.6
Florida International @ Kennesaw StateKennesaw State 61%
Model
Kennesaw State -4.1 · mkt Kennesaw State —
proj Florida International 25.2 · Kennesaw State 29.4
Total
proj 54.6
Central Michigan @ BuffaloBuffalo 58%
Model
Buffalo -2.7 · mkt Buffalo —
proj Central Michigan 27.2 · Buffalo 29.9
Total
proj 57.1
San Diego State @ Boise StateBoise State 55%
Model
Boise State -1.6 · mkt Boise State —
proj San Diego State 25.9 · Boise State 27.6
Total
proj 53.5
Washington State @ Texas StateTexas State 54%
Model
Texas State -1.3 · mkt Texas State —
proj Washington State 22.8 · Texas State 24.1
Total
proj 46.9
Old Dominion @ UConnUConn 54%
Model
UConn -1.3 · mkt UConn —
proj Old Dominion 28.2 · UConn 29.5
Total
proj 57.7
Wisconsin @ PurduePurdue 52%
Model
Purdue -0.7 · mkt Purdue —
proj Wisconsin 27.7 · Purdue 28.4
Total
proj 56.1
East Carolina @ ArmyArmy 51%
Model
Army -0.4 · mkt Army —
proj East Carolina 25.5 · Army 25.9
Total
proj 51.3
Western Kentucky @ LibertyLiberty 50%
Model
Liberty 0.0 · mkt Liberty —
proj Western Kentucky 29.2 · Liberty 29.2
Total
proj 58.3
Texas A&M @ OklahomaTexas A&M 50%
Model
Texas A&M -0.1 · mkt Texas A&M —
proj Texas A&M 26.7 · Oklahoma 26.7
Total
proj 53.4
Delaware @ New Mexico StateDelaware 50%
Model
Delaware -0.1 · mkt Delaware —
proj Delaware 25.1 · New Mexico State 24.9
Total
proj 50.0
Arizona @ Kansas StateArizona 50%
Model
Arizona -0.2 · mkt Arizona —
proj Arizona 25.3 · Kansas State 25.2
Total
proj 50.5
Northwestern @ MinnesotaNorthwestern 51%
Model
Northwestern -0.4 · mkt Northwestern —
proj Northwestern 27.7 · Minnesota 27.2
Total
proj 54.9
Iowa State @ UCFIowa State 55%
Model
Iowa State -1.9 · mkt Iowa State —
proj Iowa State 27.8 · UCF 25.9
Total
proj 53.7
Middle Tennessee @ Sam HoustonMiddle Tennessee 56%
Model
Middle Tennessee -2.2 · mkt Middle Tennessee —
proj Middle Tennessee 28.5 · Sam Houston 26.3
Total
proj 54.8
North Texas @ TulaneNorth Texas 57%
Model
North Texas -2.4 · mkt North Texas —
proj North Texas 28.2 · Tulane 25.9
Total
proj 54.1
New Mexico @ WyomingNew Mexico 57%
Model
New Mexico -2.6 · mkt New Mexico —
proj New Mexico 29.2 · Wyoming 26.6
Total
proj 55.9
Clemson @ DukeClemson 58%
Model
Clemson -2.7 · mkt Clemson —
proj Clemson 29.7 · Duke 27.0
Total
proj 56.7
Utah State @ Oregon StateUtah State 61%
Model
Utah State -4.0 · mkt Utah State —
proj Utah State 28.3 · Oregon State 24.3
Total
proj 52.6
Vanderbilt @ FloridaVanderbilt 61%
Model
Vanderbilt -4.0 · mkt Vanderbilt —
proj Vanderbilt 26.6 · Florida 22.6
Total
proj 49.1
Houston @ West VirginiaHouston 61%
Model
Houston -4.1 · mkt Houston —
proj Houston 28.4 · West Virginia 24.3
Total
proj 52.7
Indiana @ WashingtonIndiana 62%
Model
Indiana -4.3 · mkt Indiana —
proj Indiana 28.6 · Washington 24.2
Total
proj 52.8
Hawai'i @ NevadaHawai'i 71%
Model
Hawai'i -8.0 · mkt Hawai'i —
proj Hawai'i 31.4 · Nevada 23.4
Total
proj 54.8
Akron @ MassachusettsAkron 79%
Model
Akron -11.2 · mkt Akron —
proj Akron 32.0 · Massachusetts 20.8
Total
proj 52.8
Miami (OH) @ Kent StateMiami (OH) 81%
Model
Miami (OH) -12.3 · mkt Miami (OH) —
proj Miami (OH) 34.9 · Kent State 22.6
Total
proj 57.5
UNLV @ San José StateUNLV 83%
Model
UNLV -13.7 · mkt UNLV —
proj UNLV 36.2 · San José State 22.5
Total
proj 58.7
South Florida @ Florida AtlanticSouth Florida 87%
Model
South Florida -15.8 · mkt South Florida —
proj South Florida 36.9 · Florida Atlantic 21.1
Total
proj 57.9
Georgia @ South CarolinaGeorgia 90%
Model
Georgia -17.9 · mkt Georgia —
proj Georgia 36.8 · South Carolina 18.9
Total
proj 55.8
Ohio State @ NebraskaOhio State 91%
Model
Ohio State -18.7 · mkt Ohio State —
proj Ohio State 37.4 · Nebraska 18.7
Total
proj 56.1
Texas Tech @ BaylorTexas Tech 95%
Model
Texas Tech -23.1 · mkt Texas Tech —
proj Texas Tech 40.0 · Baylor 16.8
Total
proj 56.8
Oregon @ Michigan StateOregon 96%
Model
Oregon -25.0 · mkt Oregon —
proj Oregon 42.7 · Michigan State 17.7
Total
proj 60.5
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.