CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 11 · FBS · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — FBS · Week 11 · 67 games
Massachusetts @ ToledoToledo 99%
Model
Toledo -34.6 · mkt Toledo —
proj Massachusetts 14.0 · Toledo 48.5
Total
proj 62.5
Boston College @ Notre DameNotre Dame 99%
Model
Notre Dame -32.3 · mkt Notre Dame —
proj Boston College 11.2 · Notre Dame 43.6
Total
proj 54.8
Northwestern @ Ohio StateOhio State 96%
Model
Ohio State -24.3 · mkt Ohio State —
proj Northwestern 14.2 · Ohio State 38.4
Total
proj 52.6
San José State @ Air ForceAir Force 91%
Model
Air Force -18.9 · mkt Air Force —
proj San José State 22.0 · Air Force 40.9
Total
proj 62.9
Minnesota @ Penn StatePenn State 88%
Model
Penn State -16.6 · mkt Penn State —
proj Minnesota 18.7 · Penn State 35.3
Total
proj 54.0
Colorado State @ Washington StateWashington State 88%
Model
Washington State -16.5 · mkt Washington State —
proj Colorado State 18.9 · Washington State 35.4
Total
proj 54.3
Sacramento State @ Central MichiganCentral Michigan 87%
Model
Central Michigan -15.8 · mkt Central Michigan —
proj Sacramento State 20.5 · Central Michigan 36.3
Total
proj 56.8
USC @ IndianaIndiana 86%
Model
Indiana -15.1 · mkt Indiana —
proj USC 19.7 · Indiana 34.8
Total
proj 54.4
Missouri @ GeorgiaGeorgia 84%
Model
Georgia -14.4 · mkt Georgia —
proj Missouri 20.7 · Georgia 35.1
Total
proj 55.8
Syracuse @ NC StateNC State 82%
Model
NC State -13.2 · mkt NC State —
proj Syracuse 21.3 · NC State 34.5
Total
proj 55.8
California @ VirginiaVirginia 80%
Model
Virginia -11.8 · mkt Virginia —
proj California 20.0 · Virginia 31.8
Total
proj 51.9
Oregon State @ Boise StateBoise State 78%
Model
Boise State -11.2 · mkt Boise State —
proj Oregon State 22.8 · Boise State 34.0
Total
proj 56.8
App State @ MarshallMarshall 78%
Model
Marshall -10.9 · mkt Marshall —
proj App State 21.7 · Marshall 32.6
Total
proj 54.3
Michigan @ OregonOregon 77%
Model
Oregon -10.5 · mkt Oregon —
proj Michigan 21.5 · Oregon 32.0
Total
proj 53.5
Utah State @ San Diego StateSan Diego State 77%
Model
San Diego State -10.4 · mkt San Diego State —
proj Utah State 21.5 · San Diego State 31.9
Total
proj 53.5
Jacksonville State @ Western KentuckyWestern Kentucky 76%
Model
Western Kentucky -10.2 · mkt Western Kentucky —
proj Jacksonville State 20.9 · Western Kentucky 31.0
Total
proj 51.9
North Dakota State @ Hawai'iHawai'i 75%
Model
Hawai'i -9.7 · mkt Hawai'i —
proj North Dakota State 22.3 · Hawai'i 32.0
Total
proj 54.3
Cincinnati @ Iowa StateIowa State 75%
Model
Iowa State -9.7 · mkt Iowa State —
proj Cincinnati 22.9 · Iowa State 32.7
Total
proj 55.6
Georgia Tech @ ClemsonClemson 72%
Model
Clemson -8.5 · mkt Clemson —
proj Georgia Tech 23.5 · Clemson 32.0
Total
proj 55.5
Kent State @ Bowling GreenBowling Green 72%
Model
Bowling Green -8.3 · mkt Bowling Green —
proj Kent State 21.6 · Bowling Green 29.8
Total
proj 51.4
Memphis @ South FloridaSouth Florida 72%
Model
South Florida -8.3 · mkt South Florida —
proj Memphis 23.5 · South Florida 31.8
Total
proj 55.3
Tennessee @ Texas A&MTexas A&M 70%
Model
Texas A&M -7.6 · mkt Texas A&M —
proj Tennessee 22.9 · Texas A&M 30.6
Total
proj 53.5
Middle Tennessee @ LibertyLiberty 70%
Model
Liberty -7.5 · mkt Liberty —
proj Middle Tennessee 23.5 · Liberty 31.0
Total
proj 54.5
Southern Miss @ Louisiana TechLouisiana Tech 69%
Model
Louisiana Tech -6.9 · mkt Louisiana Tech —
proj Southern Miss 24.8 · Louisiana Tech 31.8
Total
proj 56.6
Ohio @ Miami (OH)Miami (OH) 67%
Model
Miami (OH) -6.4 · mkt Miami (OH) —
proj Ohio 24.6 · Miami (OH) 31.0
Total
proj 55.6
Stanford @ Virginia TechVirginia Tech 63%
Model
Virginia Tech -4.8 · mkt Virginia Tech —
proj Stanford 26.4 · Virginia Tech 31.2
Total
proj 57.6
New Mexico State @ Missouri StateMissouri State 63%
Model
Missouri State -4.5 · mkt Missouri State —
proj New Mexico State 27.9 · Missouri State 32.5
Total
proj 60.4
Florida Atlantic @ TulsaTulsa 61%
Model
Tulsa -3.8 · mkt Tulsa —
proj Florida Atlantic 26.2 · Tulsa 30.0
Total
proj 56.2
Florida State @ PittsburghPittsburgh 57%
Model
Pittsburgh -2.3 · mkt Pittsburgh —
proj Florida State 28.1 · Pittsburgh 30.4
Total
proj 58.6
Nevada @ Northern IllinoisNorthern Illinois 55%
Model
Northern Illinois -1.8 · mkt Northern Illinois —
proj Nevada 26.4 · Northern Illinois 28.1
Total
proj 54.5
Fresno State @ Texas StateTexas State 53%
Model
Texas State -1.2 · mkt Texas State —
proj Fresno State 25.0 · Texas State 26.2
Total
proj 51.3
Troy @ South AlabamaSouth Alabama 53%
Model
South Alabama -1.0 · mkt South Alabama —
proj Troy 28.5 · South Alabama 29.5
Total
proj 58.0
Florida International @ DelawareDelaware 53%
Model
Delaware -1.0 · mkt Delaware —
proj Florida International 29.3 · Delaware 30.2
Total
proj 59.5
Wisconsin @ MarylandMaryland 52%
Model
Maryland -0.6 · mkt Maryland —
proj Wisconsin 28.2 · Maryland 28.9
Total
proj 57.1
Alabama @ VanderbiltAlabama 50%
Model
Alabama -0.1 · mkt Alabama —
proj Alabama 28.9 · Vanderbilt 28.8
Total
proj 57.7
Nebraska @ RutgersNebraska 51%
Model
Nebraska -0.3 · mkt Nebraska —
proj Nebraska 29.2 · Rutgers 28.9
Total
proj 58.1
Florida @ KentuckyFlorida 53%
Model
Florida -0.9 · mkt Florida —
proj Florida 28.9 · Kentucky 28.0
Total
proj 56.9
Arkansas State @ Coastal CarolinaArkansas State 53%
Model
Arkansas State -0.9 · mkt Arkansas State —
proj Arkansas State 27.2 · Coastal Carolina 26.3
Total
proj 53.5
South Carolina @ ArkansasSouth Carolina 57%
Model
South Carolina -2.6 · mkt South Carolina —
proj South Carolina 28.1 · Arkansas 25.5
Total
proj 53.6
Wyoming @ UTEPWyoming 58%
Model
Wyoming -2.7 · mkt Wyoming —
proj Wyoming 28.5 · UTEP 25.8
Total
proj 54.3
North Texas @ UTSANorth Texas 58%
Model
North Texas -2.7 · mkt North Texas —
proj North Texas 27.6 · UTSA 24.9
Total
proj 52.5
Auburn @ Mississippi StateAuburn 58%
Model
Auburn -2.8 · mkt Auburn —
proj Auburn 29.8 · Mississippi State 27.0
Total
proj 56.8
Buffalo @ Ball StateBuffalo 59%
Model
Buffalo -3.1 · mkt Buffalo —
proj Buffalo 27.9 · Ball State 24.8
Total
proj 52.7
Ole Miss @ OklahomaOle Miss 60%
Model
Ole Miss -3.5 · mkt Ole Miss —
proj Ole Miss 28.4 · Oklahoma 25.0
Total
proj 53.4
Georgia Southern @ Georgia StateGeorgia Southern 60%
Model
Georgia Southern -3.7 · mkt Georgia Southern —
proj Georgia Southern 28.1 · Georgia State 24.3
Total
proj 52.4
James Madison @ UConnJames Madison 62%
Model
James Madison -4.3 · mkt James Madison —
proj James Madison 27.6 · UConn 23.3
Total
proj 50.9
Houston @ ColoradoHouston 63%
Model
Houston -4.5 · mkt Houston —
proj Houston 27.2 · Colorado 22.7
Total
proj 50.0
Louisiana @ UL MonroeLouisiana 64%
Model
Louisiana -5.1 · mkt Louisiana —
proj Louisiana 31.0 · UL Monroe 25.9
Total
proj 56.9
Kansas @ West VirginiaKansas 65%
Model
Kansas -5.5 · mkt Kansas —
proj Kansas 30.6 · West Virginia 25.1
Total
proj 55.6
Western Michigan @ AkronWestern Michigan 65%
Model
Western Michigan -5.6 · mkt Western Michigan —
proj Western Michigan 30.8 · Akron 25.3
Total
proj 56.1
Illinois @ UCLAIllinois 72%
Model
Illinois -8.3 · mkt Illinois —
proj Illinois 32.7 · UCLA 24.4
Total
proj 57.1
Louisville @ North CarolinaLouisville 72%
Model
Louisville -8.4 · mkt Louisville —
proj Louisville 33.4 · North Carolina 25.1
Total
proj 58.5
Washington @ Michigan StateWashington 76%
Model
Washington -10.2 · mkt Washington —
proj Washington 32.9 · Michigan State 22.7
Total
proj 55.6
Kennesaw State @ Sam HoustonKennesaw State 87%
Model
Kennesaw State -15.9 · mkt Kennesaw State —
proj Kennesaw State 34.8 · Sam Houston 18.9
Total
proj 53.7
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma StateTexas Tech 92%
Model
Texas Tech -20.3 · mkt Texas Tech —
proj Texas Tech 31.8 · Oklahoma State 11.5
Total
proj 43.3
East Carolina @ CharlotteEast Carolina 93%
Model
East Carolina -20.8 · mkt East Carolina —
proj East Carolina 36.0 · Charlotte 15.1
Total
proj 51.1
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.