CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 10 · FBS · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Miami @ Notre Dame1.6 pt gap
Model vs mktNotre Dame -4.9 · mkt Notre Dame ~-6.5
LeanMiami +6.5
Best priceMiami +6.5 -110best of 1
WinNotre Dame 64%
Full Slate — FBS · Week 10 · 62 games
Miami @ Notre DameNotre Dame 64%
Model
Notre Dame -4.9 · mkt Notre Dame ~-6.5
proj Miami 26.3 · Notre Dame 31.3
leans Miami +6.5
◆ Mid 0
Notre Dame -6.5 -110FanDuel
Miami +6.5 -110FanDuel
West Virginia @ Texas TechTexas Tech 93%
Model
Texas Tech -21.2 · mkt Texas Tech —
proj West Virginia 16.9 · Texas Tech 38.1
Total
proj 54.9
Michigan State @ MichiganMichigan 92%
Model
Michigan -19.7 · mkt Michigan —
proj Michigan State 18.0 · Michigan 37.7
Total
proj 55.7
Rice @ North TexasNorth Texas 91%
Model
North Texas -19.5 · mkt North Texas —
proj Rice 17.9 · North Texas 37.4
Total
proj 55.3
UL Monroe @ Arkansas StateArkansas State 91%
Model
Arkansas State -18.6 · mkt Arkansas State —
proj UL Monroe 17.3 · Arkansas State 35.9
Total
proj 53.2
Oklahoma State @ Kansas StateKansas State 90%
Model
Kansas State -17.8 · mkt Kansas State —
proj Oklahoma State 20.3 · Kansas State 38.1
Total
proj 58.3
Kentucky @ TennesseeTennessee 84%
Model
Tennessee -14.2 · mkt Tennessee —
proj Kentucky 18.8 · Tennessee 33.0
Total
proj 51.7
Virginia Tech @ SMUSMU 83%
Model
SMU -13.5 · mkt SMU —
proj Virginia Tech 21.2 · SMU 34.7
Total
proj 55.9
Sam Houston @ Jacksonville StateJacksonville State 81%
Model
Jacksonville State -12.3 · mkt Jacksonville State —
proj Sam Houston 18.7 · Jacksonville State 30.9
Total
proj 49.6
Arkansas @ AuburnAuburn 78%
Model
Auburn -10.9 · mkt Auburn —
proj Arkansas 22.1 · Auburn 33.0
Total
proj 55.1
Georgia State @ App StateApp State 77%
Model
App State -10.3 · mkt App State —
proj Georgia State 23.7 · App State 34.0
Total
proj 57.8
Colorado @ Arizona StateArizona State 76%
Model
Arizona State -9.9 · mkt Arizona State —
proj Colorado 22.2 · Arizona State 32.1
Total
proj 54.2
Oregon @ Ohio StateOhio State 74%
Model
Ohio State -9.3 · mkt Ohio State —
proj Oregon 17.7 · Ohio State 27.0
Total
proj 44.7
UCLA @ MinnesotaMinnesota 73%
Model
Minnesota -8.6 · mkt Minnesota —
proj UCLA 22.9 · Minnesota 31.5
Total
proj 54.4
Missouri State @ Florida InternationalFlorida International 72%
Model
Florida International -8.2 · mkt Florida International —
proj Missouri State 23.4 · Florida International 31.5
Total
proj 54.9
Delaware @ Kennesaw StateKennesaw State 71%
Model
Kennesaw State -7.9 · mkt Kennesaw State —
proj Delaware 21.7 · Kennesaw State 29.7
Total
proj 51.4
Buffalo @ Miami (OH)Miami (OH) 68%
Model
Miami (OH) -6.6 · mkt Miami (OH) —
proj Buffalo 23.2 · Miami (OH) 29.8
Total
proj 53.1
Duke @ NC StateNC State 64%
Model
NC State -5.2 · mkt NC State —
proj Duke 24.1 · NC State 29.3
Total
proj 53.4
South Alabama @ LouisianaLouisiana 64%
Model
Louisiana -5.2 · mkt Louisiana —
proj South Alabama 23.5 · Louisiana 28.7
Total
proj 52.2
Toledo @ Sacramento StateSacramento State 64%
Model
Sacramento State -5.2 · mkt Sacramento State —
proj Toledo 23.6 · Sacramento State 28.8
Total
proj 52.5
Cincinnati @ HoustonHouston 63%
Model
Houston -4.8 · mkt Houston —
proj Cincinnati 23.3 · Houston 28.1
Total
proj 51.3
Nebraska @ IllinoisIllinois 62%
Model
Illinois -4.2 · mkt Illinois —
proj Nebraska 27.7 · Illinois 31.9
Total
proj 59.7
North Carolina @ UConnUConn 60%
Model
UConn -3.7 · mkt UConn —
proj North Carolina 26.1 · UConn 29.8
Total
proj 55.8
Louisville @ Georgia TechGeorgia Tech 59%
Model
Georgia Tech -3.1 · mkt Georgia Tech —
proj Louisville 24.6 · Georgia Tech 27.6
Total
proj 52.2
South Florida @ East CarolinaEast Carolina 56%
Model
East Carolina -2.2 · mkt East Carolina —
proj South Florida 27.5 · East Carolina 29.7
Total
proj 57.3
Marshall @ Georgia SouthernGeorgia Southern 56%
Model
Georgia Southern -2.1 · mkt Georgia Southern —
proj Marshall 26.1 · Georgia Southern 28.3
Total
proj 54.4
Fresno State @ Utah StateUtah State 56%
Model
Utah State -2.1 · mkt Utah State —
proj Fresno State 27.4 · Utah State 29.5
Total
proj 56.9
Louisiana Tech @ TroyTroy 55%
Model
Troy -1.8 · mkt Troy —
proj Louisiana Tech 26.2 · Troy 28.0
Total
proj 54.1
Northern Illinois @ San José StateSan José State 55%
Model
San José State -1.6 · mkt San José State —
proj Northern Illinois 25.1 · San José State 26.8
Total
proj 51.9
Maryland @ PurduePurdue 53%
Model
Purdue -1.1 · mkt Purdue —
proj Maryland 28.6 · Purdue 29.7
Total
proj 58.3
Texas @ MissouriMissouri 52%
Model
Missouri -0.9 · mkt Missouri —
proj Texas 25.7 · Missouri 26.6
Total
proj 52.3
Central Michigan @ Eastern MichiganEastern Michigan 51%
Model
Eastern Michigan -0.5 · mkt Eastern Michigan —
proj Central Michigan 26.4 · Eastern Michigan 26.9
Total
proj 53.3
Penn State @ WashingtonWashington 51%
Model
Washington -0.2 · mkt Washington —
proj Penn State 26.5 · Washington 26.7
Total
proj 53.2
Iowa State @ BaylorBaylor 50%
Model
Baylor 0.0 · mkt Baylor —
proj Iowa State 27.9 · Baylor 27.9
Total
proj 55.7
Ball State @ MassachusettsBall State 53%
Model
Ball State -1.0 · mkt Ball State —
proj Ball State 29.8 · Massachusetts 28.7
Total
proj 58.5
Georgia @ Ole MissGeorgia 54%
Model
Georgia -1.5 · mkt Georgia —
proj Georgia 30.7 · Ole Miss 29.2
Total
proj 59.9
Rutgers @ WisconsinRutgers 54%
Model
Rutgers -1.6 · mkt Rutgers —
proj Rutgers 25.0 · Wisconsin 23.4
Total
proj 48.4
Oklahoma @ FloridaOklahoma 57%
Model
Oklahoma -2.5 · mkt Oklahoma —
proj Oklahoma 28.2 · Florida 25.7
Total
proj 53.8
New Mexico @ NevadaNew Mexico 59%
Model
New Mexico -3.1 · mkt New Mexico —
proj New Mexico 30.0 · Nevada 26.9
Total
proj 56.8
Texas State @ Oregon StateTexas State 59%
Model
Texas State -3.3 · mkt Texas State —
proj Texas State 25.7 · Oregon State 22.3
Total
proj 48.0
Iowa @ NorthwesternIowa 61%
Model
Iowa -4.0 · mkt Iowa —
proj Iowa 30.0 · Northwestern 26.0
Total
proj 55.9
Western Kentucky @ Middle TennesseeWestern Kentucky 64%
Model
Western Kentucky -5.1 · mkt Western Kentucky —
proj Western Kentucky 30.1 · Middle Tennessee 25.0
Total
proj 55.1
Liberty @ New Mexico StateLiberty 65%
Model
Liberty -5.4 · mkt Liberty —
proj Liberty 32.0 · New Mexico State 26.6
Total
proj 58.7
UTSA @ Florida AtlanticUTSA 67%
Model
UTSA -6.3 · mkt UTSA —
proj UTSA 32.8 · Florida Atlantic 26.5
Total
proj 59.3
Texas A&M @ South CarolinaTexas A&M 69%
Model
Texas A&M -7.2 · mkt Texas A&M —
proj Texas A&M 28.4 · South Carolina 21.2
Total
proj 49.7
Hawai'i @ UTEPHawai'i 72%
Model
Hawai'i -8.2 · mkt Hawai'i —
proj Hawai'i 30.6 · UTEP 22.4
Total
proj 53.0
Old Dominion @ Coastal CarolinaOld Dominion 76%
Model
Old Dominion -9.9 · mkt Old Dominion —
proj Old Dominion 31.1 · Coastal Carolina 21.2
Total
proj 52.4
Florida State @ Boston CollegeFlorida State 77%
Model
Florida State -10.6 · mkt Florida State —
proj Florida State 31.9 · Boston College 21.4
Total
proj 53.3
Boise State @ Colorado StateBoise State 77%
Model
Boise State -10.7 · mkt Boise State —
proj Boise State 32.8 · Colorado State 22.0
Total
proj 54.8
Vanderbilt @ Mississippi StateVanderbilt 81%
Model
Vanderbilt -12.3 · mkt Vanderbilt —
proj Vanderbilt 33.9 · Mississippi State 21.6
Total
proj 55.5
James Madison @ Southern MissJames Madison 82%
Model
James Madison -13.1 · mkt James Madison —
proj James Madison 33.6 · Southern Miss 20.5
Total
proj 54.1
Clemson @ SyracuseClemson 88%
Model
Clemson -16.9 · mkt Clemson —
proj Clemson 38.2 · Syracuse 21.4
Total
proj 59.6
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.