CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 1 · FBS · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge

All SEC Big Ten Big 12 ACC Pac-12 American Athletic Mountain West Sun Belt Mid-American Conference USA FBS Independents

Season2026 2025 2024

Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price

North Texas @ Indiana18.7 pt gap

Model vs mktIndiana -21.3 · mkt Indiana ~-40.0

LeanNorth Texas +40.0

Best priceNorth Texas +40.5 -110best of 7

WinIndiana 93%

Oklahoma State @ Tulsa13.8 pt gap

Model vs mktTulsa -0.8 · mkt Tulsa ~+13.0

LeanTulsa +13.0

Best priceTulsa +13.5 -115best of 7

WinTulsa 52%

Ohio @ Nebraska13.2 pt gap

Model vs mktNebraska -10.3 · mkt Nebraska ~-23.5

LeanOhio +23.5

Best priceOhio +23.5 -112best of 7

WinNebraska 76%

Jacksonville State @ North Dakota State12.4 pt gap

Model vs mktNorth Dakota State -20.4 · mkt North Dakota State ~-8.0

LeanNorth Dakota State -8.0

Best priceNorth Dakota State -7.5 -110best of 7

WinNorth Dakota State 92%

Toledo @ Michigan State12.0 pt gap

Model vs mktToledo -1.0 · mkt Toledo ~+11.0

LeanToledo +11.0

Best priceToledo +11.5 -115best of 7

WinToledo 53%

East Carolina @ Alabama11.7 pt gap

Model vs mktAlabama -14.3 · mkt Alabama ~-26.0

LeanEast Carolina +26.0

Best priceEast Carolina +26.5 -108best of 7

WinAlabama 84%

Liberty @ James Madison11.2 pt gap

Model vs mktJames Madison -17.5 · mkt James Madison ~-6.3

LeanJames Madison -6.3

Best priceJames Madison -6 -110best of 7

WinJames Madison 89%

Florida International @ South Florida9.9 pt gap

Model vs mktSouth Florida -21.9 · mkt South Florida ~-12.0

LeanSouth Florida -12.0

Best priceSouth Florida -11.5 -110best of 7

WinSouth Florida 94%

Full Slate — FBS · Week 1 · 51 games

North Texas @ IndianaIndiana 93%

Model

Indiana -21.3 · mkt Indiana ~-40.0

proj North Texas 16.1 · Indiana 37.4

leans North Texas +40.0

◆ Mid 1

Indiana -39.5 -115FanDuel

North Texas +40.5 -110DraftKings

Oklahoma State @ TulsaTulsa 52%

Model

Tulsa -0.8 · mkt Tulsa ~+13.0

proj Oklahoma State 28.5 · Tulsa 29.3

leans Tulsa +13.0

◆ Mid 1

Tulsa +13.5 -115FanDuel

Oklahoma State -12.5 -112DraftKings

Ohio @ NebraskaNebraska 76%

Model

Nebraska -10.3 · mkt Nebraska ~-23.5

proj Ohio 22.2 · Nebraska 32.5

leans Ohio +23.5

◆ Mid 0

Nebraska -23.5 -108DraftKings

Ohio +23.5 -112DraftKings

Jacksonville State @ North Dakota StateNorth Dakota State 92%

Model

North Dakota State -20.4 · mkt North Dakota State ~-8.0

proj Jacksonville State 18.4 · North Dakota State 38.8

leans North Dakota State -8.0

◆ Mid 1

North Dakota State -7.5 -110FanDuel

Jacksonville State +8.5 -108DraftKings

Toledo @ Michigan StateToledo 53%

Model

Toledo -1.0 · mkt Toledo ~+11.0

proj Toledo 29.7 · Michigan State 28.7

leans Toledo +11.0

◆ Mid 1

Michigan State -10.5 -110DraftKings

Toledo +11.5 -115FanDuel

East Carolina @ AlabamaAlabama 84%

Model

Alabama -14.3 · mkt Alabama ~-26.0

proj East Carolina 18.8 · Alabama 33.1

leans East Carolina +26.0

◆ Mid 1

Alabama -25.5 -115FanDuel

East Carolina +26.5 -108DraftKings

Liberty @ James MadisonJames Madison 89%

Model

James Madison -17.5 · mkt James Madison ~-6.3

proj Liberty 18.8 · James Madison 36.3

leans James Madison -6.3

◆ Mid 0.5

James Madison -6 -110DraftKings

Liberty +6.5 -108FanDuel

Florida International @ South FloridaSouth Florida 94%

Model

South Florida -21.9 · mkt South Florida ~-12.0

proj Florida International 16.1 · South Florida 38.0

leans South Florida -12.0

◆ Mid 1

South Florida -11.5 -110FanDuel

Florida International +12.5 -108DraftKings

Northern Illinois @ IowaIowa 100%

Model

Iowa -40.0 · mkt Iowa ~-30.5

proj Northern Illinois 6.9 · Iowa 46.9

leans Iowa -30.5

◆ Mid 0

Iowa -30.5 -105DraftKings

Northern Illinois +30.5 -115DraftKings

Clemson @ LSULSU 60%

Model

LSU -3.7 · mkt LSU ~-11.5

proj Clemson 25.3 · LSU 29.0

leans Clemson +11.5

◆ Mid 1

LSU -11 -111LowVig

Clemson +12 -109BetRivers

Washington State @ WashingtonWashington 83%

Model

Washington -13.8 · mkt Washington ~-21.5

proj Washington State 18.3 · Washington 32.1

leans Washington State +21.5

◆ Mid 0

Washington -21.5 -108DraftKings

Washington State +21.5 -112DraftKings

Colorado @ Georgia TechGeorgia Tech 85%

Model

Georgia Tech -14.7 · mkt Georgia Tech ~-7.3

proj Colorado 17.8 · Georgia Tech 32.5

leans Georgia Tech -7.3

◆ Mid 0.5

Georgia Tech -7 -106LowVig

Colorado +7.5 -112DraftKings

Louisville @ Ole MissOle Miss 81%

Model

Ole Miss -12.6 · mkt Ole Miss ~-5.5

proj Louisville 19.5 · Ole Miss 32.1

leans Ole Miss -5.5

◆ Mid 2

Ole Miss -4.5 -110BetOnline

Louisville +6.5 -108DraftKings

Marshall @ Penn StatePenn State 98%

Model

Penn State -30.0 · mkt Penn State ~-23.0

proj Marshall 11.1 · Penn State 41.2

leans Penn State -23.0

◆ Mid 1

Penn State -22.5 -106LowVig

Marshall +23.5 -112DraftKings

Western Michigan @ MichiganMichigan 91%

Model

Michigan -19.1 · mkt Michigan ~-26.0

proj Western Michigan 17.2 · Michigan 36.2

leans Western Michigan +26.0

◆ Mid 1

Michigan -25.5 -112FanDuel

Western Michigan +26.5 -108DraftKings

Miami (OH) @ PittsburghPittsburgh 75%

Model

Pittsburgh -9.5 · mkt Pittsburgh ~-16.0

proj Miami (OH) 22.2 · Pittsburgh 31.7

leans Miami (OH) +16.0

◆ Mid 1

Pittsburgh -15.5 -108DraftKings

Miami (OH) +16.5 -106LowVig

Tulane @ DukeDuke 60%

Model

Duke -3.5 · mkt Duke ~-10.0

proj Tulane 26.0 · Duke 29.4

leans Tulane +10.0

◆ Mid 1

Duke -9.5 -105DraftKings

Tulane +10.5 -105FanDuel

Massachusetts @ RutgersRutgers 99%

Model

Rutgers -36.2 · mkt Rutgers ~-30.5

proj Massachusetts 8.0 · Rutgers 44.1

leans Rutgers -30.5

◆ Mid 0

Rutgers -30.5 -110DraftKings

Massachusetts +30.5 -110DraftKings

Miami @ StanfordMiami 97%

Model

Miami -27.7 · mkt Miami ~-22.2

proj Miami 43.0 · Stanford 15.3

leans Miami -22.2

◆ Mid 1.5

Stanford +23 -101LowVig

Miami -21.5 -108DraftKings

Florida Atlantic @ FloridaFlorida 99%

Model

Florida -31.7 · mkt Florida ~-26.3

proj Florida Atlantic 12.8 · Florida 44.5

leans Florida -26.3

◆ Mid 0.5

Florida -26 -106LowVig

Florida Atlantic +26.5 -108DraftKings

Baylor @ AuburnAuburn 81%

Model

Auburn -12.6 · mkt Auburn ~-7.5

proj Baylor 21.3 · Auburn 34.0

leans Auburn -7.5

◆ Mid 1

Auburn -7 -105DraftKings

Baylor +8 -113BetRivers

North Carolina @ TCUTCU 80%

Model

TCU -12.0 · mkt TCU ~-7.0

proj North Carolina 23.4 · TCU 35.4

leans TCU -7.0

◆ Mid 1

TCU -6.5 -110DraftKings

North Carolina +7.5 -106LowVig

Missouri State @ Texas A&MTexas A&M 100%

Model

Texas A&M -43.7 · mkt Texas A&M ~-39.0

proj Missouri State 4.4 · Texas A&M 48.1

leans Texas A&M -39.0

◆ Mid 1

Texas A&M -38.5 -110DraftKings

Missouri State +39.5 -110FanDuel

Akron @ Wake ForestWake Forest 89%

Model

Wake Forest -17.8 · mkt Wake Forest ~-22.5

proj Akron 18.5 · Wake Forest 36.3

leans Akron +22.5

◆ Mid 0

Wake Forest -22.5 -108DraftKings

Akron +22.5 -112DraftKings

SMU @ Florida StateFlorida State 56%

Model

Florida State -2.0 · mkt Florida State ~+2.7

proj SMU 28.1 · Florida State 30.1

leans Florida State +2.7

◆ Mid 0.5

Florida State +3 +104LowVig

SMU -2.5 -110DraftKings

Coastal Carolina @ West VirginiaWest Virginia 83%

Model

West Virginia -13.4 · mkt West Virginia ~-18.0

proj Coastal Carolina 19.2 · West Virginia 32.6

leans Coastal Carolina +18.0

◆ Mid 1

West Virginia -17.5 -112DraftKings

Coastal Carolina +18.5 -115FanDuel

Central Michigan @ New MexicoNew Mexico 70%

Model

New Mexico -7.4 · mkt New Mexico ~-12.0

proj Central Michigan 25.3 · New Mexico 32.7

leans Central Michigan +12.0

◆ Mid 1

New Mexico -11.5 -112FanDuel

Central Michigan +12.5 -112DraftKings

Oregon State @ HoustonHouston 84%

Model

Houston -14.0 · mkt Houston ~-18.5

proj Oregon State 20.4 · Houston 34.4

leans Oregon State +18.5

◆ Mid 0

Houston -18.5 -110DraftKings

Oregon State +18.5 -110DraftKings

Sacramento State @ Eastern MichiganEastern Michigan 80%

Model

Eastern Michigan -11.8 · mkt Eastern Michigan ~-8.0

proj Sacramento State 22.1 · Eastern Michigan 33.9

leans Eastern Michigan -8.0

◆ Mid 1

Eastern Michigan -7.5 -112DraftKings

Sacramento State +8.5 -110BetMGM

Ball State @ Ohio StateOhio State 100%

Model

Ohio State -46.5 · mkt Ohio State ~-50.0

proj Ball State 11.2 · Ohio State 57.6

leans Ball State +50.0

◆ Mid 1

Ohio State -49.5 -106LowVig

Ball State +50.5 -110DraftKings

UCLA @ CaliforniaCalifornia 61%

Model

California -4.1 · mkt California ~-0.8

proj UCLA 27.3 · California 31.3

leans California -0.8

◆ Mid 1.5

California 0 -106LowVig

UCLA +1.5 -112DraftKings

Texas State @ TexasTexas 98%

Model

Texas -28.2 · mkt Texas ~-31.0

proj Texas State 13.5 · Texas 41.6

leans Texas State +31.0

◆ Mid 1

Texas -30.5 -110DraftKings

Texas State +31.5 -115FanDuel

UL Monroe @ Mississippi StateMississippi State 99%

Model

Mississippi State -30.9 · mkt Mississippi State ~-28.5

proj UL Monroe 13.0 · Mississippi State 43.8

leans Mississippi State -28.5

◆ Mid 0

Mississippi State -28.5 -108DraftKings

UL Monroe +28.5 -112DraftKings

Hawai'i @ StanfordStanford 53%

Model

Stanford -1.1 · mkt Stanford ~-3.5

proj Hawai'i 26.7 · Stanford 27.8

leans Hawai'i +3.5

◆ Mid 0

Stanford -3.5 -108DraftKings

Hawai'i +3.5 -112DraftKings

UTEP @ OklahomaOklahoma 100%

Model

Oklahoma -37.7 · mkt Oklahoma ~-40.0

proj UTEP 8.9 · Oklahoma 46.6

leans UTEP +40.0

◆ Mid 1

Oklahoma -39.5 -115FanDuel

UTEP +40.5 -108DraftKings

Fresno State @ USCUSC 93%

Model

USC -20.8 · mkt USC ~-23.0

proj Fresno State 18.5 · USC 39.3

leans Fresno State +23.0

◆ Mid 1

USC -22.5 -106LowVig

Fresno State +23.5 -110DraftKings

Western Kentucky @ NevadaWestern Kentucky 63%

Model

Western Kentucky -4.8 · mkt Western Kentucky ~-3.0

proj Western Kentucky 29.9 · Nevada 25.1

leans Western Kentucky -3.0

◆ Mid 1

Nevada +3.5 -111LowVig

Western Kentucky -2.5 -122FanDuel

NC State @ VirginiaVirginia 69%

Model

Virginia -7.2 · mkt Virginia ~-5.5

proj NC State 22.7 · Virginia 29.9

leans Virginia -5.5

◆ Mid 2

Virginia -4.5 -112DraftKings

NC State +6.5 +104LowVig

UAB @ IllinoisIllinois 97%

Model

Illinois -26.0 · mkt Illinois ~-27.5

proj UAB 12.9 · Illinois 38.8

leans UAB +27.5

◆ Mid 0

Illinois -27.5 -112DraftKings

UAB +27.5 -108DraftKings

Memphis @ UNLVUNLV 55%

Model

UNLV -1.9 · mkt UNLV ~-3.3

proj Memphis 25.8 · UNLV 27.7

leans Memphis +3.3

◆ Mid 0.5

UNLV -3 -118DraftKings

Memphis +3.5 -105FanDuel

Sam Houston @ TroyTroy 88%

Model

Troy -16.5 · mkt Troy ~-17.8

proj Sam Houston 19.4 · Troy 36.0

leans Sam Houston +17.8

◆ Mid 0.5

Troy -17.5 -105DraftKings

Sam Houston +18 -106LowVig

Boston College @ CincinnatiCincinnati 73%

Model

Cincinnati -8.7 · mkt Cincinnati ~-7.5

proj Boston College 22.3 · Cincinnati 31.1

leans Cincinnati -7.5

◆ Mid 0

Cincinnati -7.5 -110DraftKings

Boston College +7.5 -110DraftKings

Kent State @ South CarolinaSouth Carolina 99%

Model

South Carolina -35.5 · mkt South Carolina ~-34.5

proj Kent State 12.3 · South Carolina 47.7

leans South Carolina -34.5

◆ Mid 0

South Carolina -34.5 -110DraftKings

Kent State +34.5 -110DraftKings

San José State @ USCUSC 99%

Model

USC -34.6 · mkt USC ~-35.5

proj San José State 8.7 · USC 43.3

leans San José State +35.5

◆ Mid 0

USC -35.5 -112DraftKings

San José State +35.5 -108DraftKings

Boise State @ OregonOregon 95%

Model

Oregon -23.8 · mkt Oregon ~-24.5

proj Boise State 14.4 · Oregon 38.1

leans Boise State +24.5

◆ Mid 0

Oregon -24.5 -115DraftKings

Boise State +24.5 -105DraftKings

San José State @ Eastern MichiganEastern Michigan 63%

Model

Eastern Michigan -4.7 · mkt Eastern Michigan ~-4.0

proj San José State 24.3 · Eastern Michigan 29.0

leans Eastern Michigan -4.0

◆ Mid 1

Eastern Michigan -3.5 -108DraftKings

San José State +4.5 -106LowVig

Arkansas State @ MemphisMemphis 76%

Model

Memphis -9.9 · mkt Memphis ~-10.5

proj Arkansas State 20.7 · Memphis 30.6

leans Arkansas State +10.5

◆ Mid 0

Memphis -10.5 -110DraftKings

Arkansas State +10.5 -110DraftKings

New Mexico State @ Florida StateFlorida State 98%

Model

Florida State -30.8 · mkt Florida State ~-30.3

proj New Mexico State 13.1 · Florida State 43.8

leans Florida State -30.3

◆ Mid 1.5

Florida State -29.5 -108DraftKings

New Mexico State +31 -106LowVig

Wyoming @ Colorado StateColorado State 59%

Model

Colorado State -3.3 · mkt Colorado State ~-3.8

proj Wyoming 24.5 · Colorado State 27.8

leans Wyoming +3.8

◆ Mid 0.5

Colorado State -3.5 -115FanDuel

Wyoming +4 -115DraftKings

UNLV @ Hawai'iUNLV 55%

Model

UNLV -1.7 · mkt UNLV ~-1.7

proj UNLV 29.6 · Hawai'i 28.0

◆ Mid 1.5

Hawai'i +2.5 -110FanDuel

UNLV -1 -101LowVig

Notre Dame @ WisconsinNotre Dame 90%

Model

Notre Dame -18.0 · mkt Notre Dame —

proj Notre Dame 35.4 · Wisconsin 17.4

Total

proj 52.9

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.