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CFB Betting Edge

2025 · Week 9 · FBS · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 9 backtest · FBS · 53 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
41–1277%
ATS vs close
23–28 · 2P45%
Model margin MAE
12.9
Market margin MAE
11.2
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Florida Atlantic @ NavyFinal 32–42
Model
pred Navy 25.1 · actual Navy 10
winner Navy ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Navy -14.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 15.1 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
Oklahoma State @ Texas TechFinal 0–42
Model
pred Texas Tech 21.7 · actual Texas Tech 42
winner Texas Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma State +37.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.3 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
Syracuse @ Georgia TechFinal 16–41
Model
pred Georgia Tech 19.7 · actual Georgia Tech 25
winner Georgia Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia Tech -17.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.3 · mkt 7.5 · closer
Stanford @ MiamiFinal 7–42
Model
pred Miami 18.2 · actual Miami 35
winner Miami ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Stanford +28.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.8 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
Wisconsin @ OregonFinal 7–21
Model
pred Oregon 18.1 · actual Oregon 14
winner Oregon ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Wisconsin +31.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.1 · mkt 17.5 · closer
UCLA @ IndianaFinal 6–56
Model
pred Indiana 18.0 · actual Indiana 50
winner Indiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UCLA +27.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 32.0 · mkt 22.5 · mkt closer
Middle Tennessee @ DelawareFinal 28–31
Model
pred Delaware 17.3 · actual Delaware 3
winner Delaware ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Delaware -8.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.3 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
Akron @ BuffaloFinal 24–16
Model
pred Buffalo 16.5 · actual Akron 8
winner Buffalo ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Buffalo -10.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.5 · mkt 18.0 · mkt closer
Missouri State @ New Mexico StateFinal 24–17
Model
pred New Mexico State 15.9 · actual Missouri State 7
winner New Mexico State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico State +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 22.9 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
Northwestern @ NebraskaFinal 21–28
Model
pred Nebraska 15.4 · actual Nebraska 7
winner Nebraska ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Nebraska -7.0Push
margin err: model 8.4 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
Boston College @ LouisvilleFinal 24–38
Model
pred Louisville 15.1 · actual Louisville 14
winner Louisville ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Boston College +25.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.1 · mkt 11.5 · closer
Massachusetts @ Central MichiganFinal 13–38
Model
pred Central Michigan 12.0 · actual Central Michigan 25
winner Central Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Massachusetts +16.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.0 · mkt 8.5 · mkt closer
Ball State @ Northern IllinoisFinal 7–21
Model
pred Northern Illinois 10.4 · actual Northern Illinois 14
winner Northern Illinois ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Northern Illinois -6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.6 · mkt 7.5 · closer
Minnesota @ IowaFinal 3–41
Model
pred Iowa 10.3 · actual Iowa 38
winner Iowa ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa -7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 27.7 · mkt 30.5 · closer
NC State @ PittsburghFinal 34–53
Model
pred Pittsburgh 8.3 · actual Pittsburgh 19
winner Pittsburgh ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Pittsburgh -5.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.7 · mkt 14.0 · closer
Western Kentucky @ Louisiana TechFinal 28–27
Model
pred Louisiana Tech 8.1 · actual Western Kentucky 1
winner Louisiana Tech ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana Tech -5.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 9.1 · mkt 6.0 · mkt closer
App State @ Old DominionFinal 21–24
Model
pred Old Dominion 7.5 · actual Old Dominion 3
winner Old Dominion ✓
ATS vs close
leaned App State +13.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.5 · mkt 10.5 · closer
Colorado @ UtahFinal 7–53
Model
pred Utah 6.3 · actual Utah 46
winner Utah ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado +14.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 39.7 · mkt 32.0 · mkt closer
UL Monroe @ Southern MissFinal 21–49
Model
pred Southern Miss 5.0 · actual Southern Miss 28
winner Southern Miss ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UL Monroe +14.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 23.0 · mkt 14.0 · mkt closer
Utah State @ New MexicoFinal 14–33
Model
pred New Mexico 4.8 · actual New Mexico 19
winner New Mexico ✓
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico -3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.2 · mkt 16.0 · closer
Missouri @ VanderbiltFinal 10–17
Model
pred Vanderbilt 4.6 · actual Vanderbilt 7
winner Vanderbilt ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Vanderbilt -3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.4 · mkt 4.0 · closer
Illinois @ WashingtonFinal 25–42
Model
pred Washington 3.3 · actual Washington 17
winner Washington ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Illinois +3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.7 · mkt 13.5 · mkt closer
South Florida @ MemphisFinal 31–34
Model
pred Memphis 3.1 · actual Memphis 3
winner Memphis ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Memphis +3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.1 · mkt 6.5 · closer
Colorado State @ WyomingFinal 0–28
Model
pred Wyoming 3.0 · actual Wyoming 28
winner Wyoming ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado State +5.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 25.0 · mkt 22.5 · mkt closer
Auburn @ ArkansasFinal 33–24
Model
pred Arkansas 2.3 · actual Auburn 9
winner Arkansas ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Auburn +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 11.3 · mkt 11.5 · closer
Ole Miss @ OklahomaFinal 34–26
Model
pred Oklahoma 2.0 · actual Ole Miss 8
winner Oklahoma ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Ole Miss +5.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.0 · mkt 13.5 · closer
Georgia Southern @ Arkansas StateFinal 24–34
Model
pred Arkansas State 1.7 · actual Arkansas State 10
winner Arkansas State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arkansas State +1.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.3 · mkt 11.0 · closer
Kennesaw State @ Florida InternationalFinal 45–26
Model
pred Florida International 1.6 · actual Kennesaw State 19
winner Florida International ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Florida International +3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.6 · mkt 16.0 · mkt closer
Baylor @ CincinnatiFinal 20–41
Model
pred Cincinnati 1.2 · actual Cincinnati 21
winner Cincinnati ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Baylor +3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.8 · mkt 17.5 · mkt closer
Western Michigan @ Miami (OH)Final 17–26
Model
pred Miami (OH) 1.1 · actual Miami (OH) 9
winner Miami (OH) ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Western Michigan +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.9 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
Louisiana @ TroyFinal 23–35
Model
pred Troy 1.0 · actual Troy 12
winner Troy ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana +7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.0 · mkt 5.0 · mkt closer
California @ Virginia TechFinal 34–42
Model
pred Virginia Tech 0.5 · actual Virginia Tech 8
winner Virginia Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned California +6.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.5 · mkt 2.0 · mkt closer
Texas A&M @ LSUFinal 49–25
Model
pred LSU 0.3 · actual Texas A&M 24
winner LSU ✗
ATS vs close
leaned LSU +1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.3 · mkt 22.5 · mkt closer
Houston @ Arizona StateFinal 24–16
Model
pred Arizona State 0.1 · actual Houston 8
winner Arizona State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Houston +7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.1 · mkt 15.5 · closer
Kansas State @ KansasFinal 42–17
Model
pred Kansas State 2.9 · actual Kansas State 25
winner Kansas State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kansas State +3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 22.1 · mkt 28.5 · closer
Virginia @ North CarolinaFinal 17–16
Model
pred Virginia 3.6 · actual Virginia 1
winner Virginia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned North Carolina +11.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.6 · mkt 10.5 · closer
BYU @ Iowa StateFinal 41–27
Model
pred BYU 3.8 · actual BYU 14
winner BYU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned BYU +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.2 · mkt 16.5 · closer
Rutgers @ PurdueFinal 27–24
Model
pred Rutgers 3.8 · actual Rutgers 3
winner Rutgers ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Rutgers +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.8 · mkt 5.5 · closer
South Alabama @ Georgia StateFinal 38–31
Model
pred South Alabama 5.2 · actual South Alabama 7
winner South Alabama ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia State +6.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 1.8 · mkt 1.0 · mkt closer
Alabama @ South CarolinaFinal 29–22
Model
pred Alabama 8.4 · actual Alabama 7
winner Alabama ✓
ATS vs close
leaned South Carolina +11.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.4 · mkt 4.5 · closer
San Diego State @ Fresno StateFinal 23–0
Model
pred San Diego State 8.9 · actual San Diego State 23
winner San Diego State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San Diego State -3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.1 · mkt 20.0 · closer
Boise State @ NevadaFinal 24–3
Model
pred Boise State 9.4 · actual Boise State 21
winner Boise State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Nevada +21.0Push
margin err: model 11.6 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
Tennessee @ KentuckyFinal 56–34
Model
pred Tennessee 9.9 · actual Tennessee 22
winner Tennessee ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Tennessee -7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 12.1 · mkt 14.5 · closer
UConn @ RiceFinal 34–37
Model
pred UConn 10.1 · actual Rice 3
winner UConn ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UConn -10.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.1 · mkt 13.0 · mkt closer
Temple @ TulsaFinal 38–37
Model
pred Temple 11.0 · actual Temple 1
winner Temple ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Temple -4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.0 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
Toledo @ Washington StateFinal 7–28
Model
pred Toledo 11.6 · actual Washington State 21
winner Toledo ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Toledo -1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 32.6 · mkt 22.5 · mkt closer
Ohio @ Eastern MichiganFinal 28–21
Model
pred Ohio 11.8 · actual Ohio 7
winner Ohio ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Eastern Michigan +12.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.8 · mkt 5.0 · closer
Bowling Green @ Kent StateFinal 21–24
Model
pred Bowling Green 11.9 · actual Kent State 3
winner Bowling Green ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Bowling Green -7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.9 · mkt 10.5 · mkt closer
Michigan @ Michigan StateFinal 31–20
Model
pred Michigan 12.8 · actual Michigan 11
winner Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Michigan State +13.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.8 · mkt 2.5 · closer
SMU @ Wake ForestFinal 12–13
Model
pred SMU 13.0 · actual Wake Forest 1
winner SMU ✗
ATS vs close
leaned SMU -5.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.0 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
Texas @ Mississippi StateFinal 45–38
Model
pred Texas 13.9 · actual Texas 7
winner Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas -8.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 6.9 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
North Texas @ CharlotteFinal 54–20
Model
pred North Texas 15.8 · actual North Texas 34
winner North Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Charlotte +25.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.2 · mkt 8.5 · mkt closer
TCU @ West VirginiaFinal 23–17
Model
pred TCU 16.9 · actual TCU 6
winner TCU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned TCU -16.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.9 · mkt 10.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.