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CFB Betting Edge

2025 · Week 8 · FBS · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 8 backtest · FBS · 59 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
46–1378%
ATS vs close
39–2066%
Model margin MAE
11.3
Market margin MAE
12.1
→ model's margins were closer than the market
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Kent State @ ToledoFinal 10–45
Model
pred Toledo 32.2 · actual Toledo 35
winner Toledo ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Toledo -25.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.8 · mkt 9.5 · closer
Michigan State @ IndianaFinal 13–38
Model
pred Indiana 22.0 · actual Indiana 25
winner Indiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Michigan State +26.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.0 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Florida Atlantic @ South FloridaFinal 13–48
Model
pred South Florida 20.8 · actual South Florida 35
winner South Florida ✓
ATS vs close
leaned South Florida -20.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.2 · mkt 14.5 · closer
Florida International @ Western KentuckyFinal 25–6
Model
pred Western Kentucky 15.1 · actual Florida International 19
winner Western Kentucky ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Western Kentucky -10.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 34.1 · mkt 29.0 · mkt closer
Georgia State @ Georgia SouthernFinal 24–41
Model
pred Georgia Southern 14.9 · actual Georgia Southern 17
winner Georgia Southern ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia Southern -6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.1 · mkt 10.5 · closer
Tulsa @ East CarolinaFinal 27–41
Model
pred East Carolina 14.4 · actual East Carolina 14
winner East Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Tulsa +16.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.4 · mkt 2.5 · closer
Northern Illinois @ OhioFinal 21–48
Model
pred Ohio 11.9 · actual Ohio 27
winner Ohio ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ohio -10.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 15.1 · mkt 16.5 · closer
Washington State @ VirginiaFinal 20–22
Model
pred Virginia 10.7 · actual Virginia 2
winner Virginia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Washington State +16.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.7 · mkt 14.5 · closer
Coastal Carolina @ App StateFinal 45–37
Model
pred App State 10.6 · actual Coastal Carolina 8
winner App State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned App State -10.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.6 · mkt 18.5 · mkt closer
Central Michigan @ Bowling GreenFinal 27–6
Model
pred Bowling Green 10.6 · actual Central Michigan 21
winner Bowling Green ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Bowling Green -3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 31.6 · mkt 24.0 · mkt closer
North Carolina @ CaliforniaFinal 18–21
Model
pred California 10.2 · actual California 3
winner California ✓
ATS vs close
leaned California -7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.2 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
Eastern Michigan @ Miami (OH)Final 30–44
Model
pred Miami (OH) 10.2 · actual Miami (OH) 14
winner Miami (OH) ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Eastern Michigan +12.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 3.8 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Tennessee @ AlabamaFinal 20–37
Model
pred Alabama 10.1 · actual Alabama 17
winner Alabama ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Alabama -8.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.9 · mkt 8.5 · closer
West Virginia @ UCFFinal 13–45
Model
pred UCF 9.1 · actual UCF 32
winner UCF ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UCF -6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 22.9 · mkt 25.5 · closer
LSU @ VanderbiltFinal 24–31
Model
pred Vanderbilt 8.8 · actual Vanderbilt 7
winner Vanderbilt ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Vanderbilt -1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.8 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Arizona @ HoustonFinal 28–31
Model
pred Houston 8.5 · actual Houston 3
winner Houston ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Houston +2.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.5 · mkt 5.0 · mkt closer
New Mexico State @ LibertyFinal 27–30
Model
pred Liberty 7.7 · actual Liberty 3
winner Liberty ✓
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico State +10.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.7 · mkt 7.5 · closer
SMU @ ClemsonFinal 35–24
Model
pred Clemson 7.2 · actual SMU 11
winner Clemson ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Clemson -3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.2 · mkt 14.5 · mkt closer
Delaware @ Jacksonville StateFinal 25–38
Model
pred Jacksonville State 7.2 · actual Jacksonville State 13
winner Jacksonville State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Jacksonville State +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.8 · mkt 16.0 · closer
Purdue @ NorthwesternFinal 0–19
Model
pred Northwestern 7.0 · actual Northwestern 19
winner Northwestern ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Northwestern -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 12.0 · mkt 15.5 · closer
Wyoming @ Air ForceFinal 21–24
Model
pred Air Force 6.3 · actual Air Force 3
winner Air Force ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Air Force -4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 3.3 · mkt 1.0 · mkt closer
Ole Miss @ GeorgiaFinal 35–43
Model
pred Georgia 6.1 · actual Georgia 8
winner Georgia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ole Miss +7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 1.9 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Nevada @ New MexicoFinal 22–24
Model
pred New Mexico 5.9 · actual New Mexico 2
winner New Mexico ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Nevada +14.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.9 · mkt 12.0 · closer
Washington @ MichiganFinal 7–24
Model
pred Michigan 5.0 · actual Michigan 17
winner Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Michigan -4.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 12.0 · mkt 13.0 · closer
UNLV @ Boise StateFinal 31–56
Model
pred Boise State 4.5 · actual Boise State 25
winner Boise State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UNLV +13.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.5 · mkt 12.0 · mkt closer
Louisville @ MiamiFinal 24–21
Model
pred Miami 4.2 · actual Louisville 3
winner Miami ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Louisville +10.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.2 · mkt 13.5 · closer
Old Dominion @ James MadisonFinal 27–63
Model
pred James Madison 4.1 · actual James Madison 36
winner James Madison ✓
ATS vs close
leaned James Madison -3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 31.9 · mkt 33.0 · closer
Baylor @ TCUFinal 36–42
Model
pred TCU 4.0 · actual TCU 6
winner TCU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned TCU -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.0 · mkt 2.5 · closer
Mississippi State @ FloridaFinal 21–23
Model
pred Florida 3.9 · actual Florida 2
winner Florida ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Mississippi State +9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.9 · mkt 7.5 · closer
Arkansas State @ South AlabamaFinal 15–14
Model
pred South Alabama 3.7 · actual Arkansas State 1
winner South Alabama ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Arkansas State +8.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.7 · mkt 9.5 · closer
Army @ TulaneFinal 17–24
Model
pred Tulane 3.6 · actual Tulane 7
winner Tulane ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Army +10.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.4 · mkt 3.0 · mkt closer
Texas State @ MarshallFinal 37–40
Model
pred Marshall 3.5 · actual Marshall 3
winner Marshall ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Marshall +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.5 · mkt 6.0 · closer
San José State @ Utah StateFinal 25–30
Model
pred Utah State 3.1 · actual Utah State 5
winner Utah State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Utah State -3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.9 · mkt 2.0 · closer
Penn State @ IowaFinal 24–25
Model
pred Iowa 3.1 · actual Iowa 1
winner Iowa ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa -3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 2.1 · mkt 2.0 · mkt closer
Akron @ Ball StateFinal 28–42
Model
pred Ball State 1.5 · actual Ball State 14
winner Ball State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ball State +2.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 12.5 · mkt 16.0 · closer
Utah @ BYUFinal 21–24
Model
pred BYU 0.8 · actual BYU 3
winner BYU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned BYU +4.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.2 · mkt 7.0 · closer
Southern Miss @ LouisianaFinal 22–10
Model
pred Louisiana 0.3 · actual Southern Miss 12
winner Louisiana ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana +4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.3 · mkt 7.5 · mkt closer
UTSA @ North TexasFinal 17–55
Model
pred North Texas 0.1 · actual North Texas 38
winner North Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UTSA +4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 37.9 · mkt 34.0 · mkt closer
USC @ Notre DameFinal 24–34
Model
pred USC 0.4 · actual Notre Dame 10
winner USC ✗
ATS vs close
leaned USC +10.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.4 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Maryland @ UCLAFinal 17–20
Model
pred Maryland 1.0 · actual UCLA 3
winner Maryland ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Maryland +4.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.0 · mkt 1.0 · mkt closer
Hawai'i @ Colorado StateFinal 31–19
Model
pred Hawai'i 1.7 · actual Hawai'i 12
winner Hawai'i ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Hawai'i +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.3 · mkt 14.5 · closer
Oklahoma @ South CarolinaFinal 26–7
Model
pred Oklahoma 2.5 · actual Oklahoma 19
winner Oklahoma ✓
ATS vs close
leaned South Carolina +4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.5 · mkt 14.5 · mkt closer
Troy @ UL MonroeFinal 37–14
Model
pred Troy 2.6 · actual Troy 23
winner Troy ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UL Monroe +4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.4 · mkt 18.5 · mkt closer
UTEP @ Sam HoustonFinal 35–17
Model
pred UTEP 2.8 · actual UTEP 18
winner UTEP ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Sam Houston +3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 15.2 · mkt 14.5 · mkt closer
Georgia Tech @ DukeFinal 27–18
Model
pred Georgia Tech 3.3 · actual Georgia Tech 9
winner Georgia Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia Tech +3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.7 · mkt 12.5 · closer
Missouri @ AuburnFinal 23–17
Model
pred Missouri 4.1 · actual Missouri 6
winner Missouri ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Missouri -1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.9 · mkt 4.5 · closer
Texas Tech @ Arizona StateFinal 22–26
Model
pred Texas Tech 4.4 · actual Arizona State 4
winner Texas Tech ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Arizona State +8.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.4 · mkt 12.0 · closer
Temple @ CharlotteFinal 49–14
Model
pred Temple 4.8 · actual Temple 35
winner Temple ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Charlotte +9.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 30.2 · mkt 25.5 · mkt closer
UConn @ Boston CollegeFinal 38–23
Model
pred UConn 5.3 · actual UConn 15
winner UConn ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UConn -2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.7 · mkt 12.5 · closer
Nebraska @ MinnesotaFinal 6–24
Model
pred Nebraska 5.5 · actual Minnesota 18
winner Nebraska ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Minnesota +7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 23.5 · mkt 25.0 · closer
Florida State @ StanfordFinal 13–20
Model
pred Florida State 6.4 · actual Stanford 7
winner Florida State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Stanford +17.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 13.4 · mkt 24.5 · closer
Pittsburgh @ SyracuseFinal 30–13
Model
pred Pittsburgh 10.1 · actual Pittsburgh 17
winner Pittsburgh ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Pittsburgh -9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.9 · mkt 7.5 · closer
Texas A&M @ ArkansasFinal 45–42
Model
pred Texas A&M 11.0 · actual Texas A&M 3
winner Texas A&M ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas A&M -7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.0 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
Buffalo @ MassachusettsFinal 28–21
Model
pred Buffalo 11.3 · actual Buffalo 7
winner Buffalo ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Massachusetts +16.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.3 · mkt 9.5 · closer
Cincinnati @ Oklahoma StateFinal 49–17
Model
pred Cincinnati 14.2 · actual Cincinnati 32
winner Cincinnati ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma State +23.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.8 · mkt 8.5 · mkt closer
Memphis @ UABFinal 24–31
Model
pred Memphis 15.8 · actual UAB 7
winner Memphis ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UAB +23.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 22.8 · mkt 30.5 · closer
Oregon @ RutgersFinal 56–10
Model
pred Oregon 19.7 · actual Oregon 46
winner Oregon ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon -17.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 26.3 · mkt 28.5 · closer
Texas @ KentuckyFinal 16–13
Model
pred Texas 21.7 · actual Texas 3
winner Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas -12.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.7 · mkt 9.5 · mkt closer
Ohio State @ WisconsinFinal 34–0
Model
pred Ohio State 23.0 · actual Ohio State 34
winner Ohio State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Wisconsin +24.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.0 · mkt 9.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.