CFB
›

CFB Betting Edge

2025 · Week 7 · FBS · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Season202620252024
Week123456789101112131415
Week 7 backtest · FBS · 56 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
38–1868%
ATS vs close
28–25 · 3P53%
Model margin MAE
14.5
Market margin MAE
13.7
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Air Force @ UNLVFinal 48–51
Model
pred UNLV 25.8 · actual UNLV 3
winner UNLV ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UNLV -7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 22.8 · mkt 4.0 · mkt closer
Washington State @ Ole MissFinal 21–24
Model
pred Ole Miss 23.6 · actual Ole Miss 3
winner Ole Miss ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Washington State +33.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 20.6 · mkt 30.0 · closer
Charlotte @ ArmyFinal 7–24
Model
pred Army 20.5 · actual Army 17
winner Army ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Army -17.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 3.5 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
NC State @ Notre DameFinal 7–36
Model
pred Notre Dame 19.2 · actual Notre Dame 29
winner Notre Dame ✓
ATS vs close
leaned NC State +23.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 9.8 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
Stanford @ SMUFinal 10–34
Model
pred SMU 19.1 · actual SMU 24
winner SMU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Stanford +19.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 4.9 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
Northwestern @ Penn StateFinal 22–21
Model
pred Penn State 18.0 · actual Northwestern 1
winner Penn State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Northwestern +20.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 19.0 · mkt 21.5 · closer
Florida @ Texas A&MFinal 17–34
Model
pred Texas A&M 16.4 · actual Texas A&M 17
winner Texas A&M ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas A&M -7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.6 · mkt 10.0 · closer
Troy @ Texas StateFinal 48–41
Model
pred Texas State 16.1 · actual Troy 7
winner Texas State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Texas State -7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 23.1 · mkt 14.5 · mkt closer
New Mexico @ Boise StateFinal 25–41
Model
pred Boise State 15.6 · actual Boise State 16
winner Boise State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Boise State -14.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.4 · mkt 1.5 · closer
Ball State @ Western MichiganFinal 0–42
Model
pred Western Michigan 15.3 · actual Western Michigan 42
winner Western Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Western Michigan -9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 26.7 · mkt 32.5 · closer
Louisiana @ James MadisonFinal 14–24
Model
pred James Madison 15.2 · actual James Madison 10
winner James Madison ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana +18.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.2 · mkt 8.5 · closer
Arkansas @ TennesseeFinal 31–34
Model
pred Tennessee 14.0 · actual Tennessee 3
winner Tennessee ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Tennessee -10.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.0 · mkt 7.0 · mkt closer
Virginia Tech @ Georgia TechFinal 20–35
Model
pred Georgia Tech 13.9 · actual Georgia Tech 15
winner Georgia Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Virginia Tech +14.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 1.1 · mkt 1.0 · mkt closer
Missouri State @ Middle TennesseeFinal 22–20
Model
pred Middle Tennessee 13.7 · actual Missouri State 2
winner Middle Tennessee ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Middle Tennessee +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 15.7 · mkt 1.0 · mkt closer
UCLA @ Michigan StateFinal 38–13
Model
pred Michigan State 11.1 · actual UCLA 25
winner Michigan State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Michigan State -7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 36.1 · mkt 32.0 · mkt closer
UCF @ CincinnatiFinal 11–20
Model
pred Cincinnati 8.8 · actual Cincinnati 9
winner Cincinnati ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UCF +10.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.2 · mkt 1.5 · closer
Kansas @ Texas TechFinal 17–42
Model
pred Texas Tech 8.7 · actual Texas Tech 25
winner Texas Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kansas +13.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.3 · mkt 11.5 · mkt closer
Rice @ UTSAFinal 13–61
Model
pred UTSA 7.9 · actual UTSA 48
winner UTSA ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Rice +9.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 40.1 · mkt 38.5 · mkt closer
South Florida @ North TexasFinal 63–36
Model
pred North Texas 7.3 · actual South Florida 27
winner North Texas ✗
ATS vs close
leaned North Texas -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 34.3 · mkt 29.5 · mkt closer
Michigan @ USCFinal 13–31
Model
pred USC 7.0 · actual USC 18
winner USC ✓
ATS vs close
leaned USC -3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 11.0 · mkt 15.0 · closer
UL Monroe @ Coastal CarolinaFinal 8–23
Model
pred Coastal Carolina 5.7 · actual Coastal Carolina 15
winner Coastal Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Coastal Carolina +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.3 · mkt 18.0 · closer
South Carolina @ LSUFinal 10–20
Model
pred LSU 5.1 · actual LSU 10
winner LSU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned South Carolina +8.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 4.9 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Indiana @ OregonFinal 30–20
Model
pred Oregon 5.0 · actual Indiana 10
winner Oregon ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Indiana +7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 15.0 · mkt 17.0 · closer
Southern Miss @ Georgia SouthernFinal 38–35
Model
pred Georgia Southern 4.7 · actual Southern Miss 3
winner Georgia Southern ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia Southern +3.0Push
margin err: model 7.7 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
East Carolina @ TulaneFinal 19–26
Model
pred Tulane 3.6 · actual Tulane 7
winner Tulane ✓
ATS vs close
leaned East Carolina +7.0Push
margin err: model 3.4 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
Arizona State @ UtahFinal 10–42
Model
pred Utah 3.5 · actual Utah 32
winner Utah ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arizona State +9.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 28.5 · mkt 22.5 · mkt closer
Alabama @ MissouriFinal 27–24
Model
pred Missouri 3.4 · actual Alabama 3
winner Missouri ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Missouri +3.0Push
margin err: model 6.4 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
San José State @ WyomingFinal 28–35
Model
pred Wyoming 2.4 · actual Wyoming 7
winner Wyoming ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Wyoming +1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.6 · mkt 8.5 · closer
Pittsburgh @ Florida StateFinal 34–31
Model
pred Florida State 1.9 · actual Pittsburgh 3
winner Florida State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Pittsburgh +10.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.9 · mkt 13.5 · closer
Rutgers @ WashingtonFinal 19–38
Model
pred Washington 1.8 · actual Washington 19
winner Washington ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Rutgers +9.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.2 · mkt 9.5 · mkt closer
Old Dominion @ MarshallFinal 24–48
Model
pred Marshall 1.3 · actual Marshall 24
winner Marshall ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Marshall +14.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 22.7 · mkt 38.5 · closer
Purdue @ MinnesotaFinal 20–27
Model
pred Minnesota 0.2 · actual Minnesota 7
winner Minnesota ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Purdue +7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.8 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
UAB @ Florida AtlanticFinal 33–53
Model
pred Florida Atlantic 0.1 · actual Florida Atlantic 20
winner Florida Atlantic ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UAB +4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.9 · mkt 15.5 · mkt closer
Wake Forest @ Oregon StateFinal 39–14
Model
pred Wake Forest 0.3 · actual Wake Forest 25
winner Wake Forest ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State +1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.7 · mkt 23.5 · mkt closer
Utah State @ Hawai'iFinal 26–44
Model
pred Utah State 0.5 · actual Hawai'i 18
winner Utah State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Hawai'i +1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 18.5 · mkt 19.5 · closer
Iowa State @ ColoradoFinal 17–24
Model
pred Iowa State 1.5 · actual Colorado 7
winner Iowa State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.5 · mkt 10.0 · closer
Fresno State @ Colorado StateFinal 21–49
Model
pred Fresno State 1.7 · actual Colorado State 28
winner Fresno State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado State +5.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 29.7 · mkt 33.5 · closer
TCU @ Kansas StateFinal 28–41
Model
pred TCU 1.9 · actual Kansas State 13
winner TCU ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Kansas State +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.9 · mkt 16.0 · closer
Northern Illinois @ Eastern MichiganFinal 10–16
Model
pred Northern Illinois 2.6 · actual Eastern Michigan 6
winner Northern Illinois ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Northern Illinois -1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.6 · mkt 7.5 · mkt closer
Oklahoma @ TexasFinal 6–23
Model
pred Oklahoma 4.0 · actual Texas 17
winner Oklahoma ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 21.0 · mkt 14.5 · mkt closer
Jacksonville State @ Sam HoustonFinal 29–27
Model
pred Jacksonville State 5.1 · actual Jacksonville State 2
winner Jacksonville State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Sam Houston +7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.1 · mkt 5.0 · closer
App State @ Georgia StateFinal 41–20
Model
pred App State 5.8 · actual App State 21
winner App State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned App State -3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 15.2 · mkt 18.0 · closer
Georgia @ AuburnFinal 20–10
Model
pred Georgia 7.0 · actual Georgia 10
winner Georgia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia -4.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.0 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Iowa @ WisconsinFinal 37–0
Model
pred Iowa 7.2 · actual Iowa 37
winner Iowa ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa -5.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 29.8 · mkt 32.0 · closer
Liberty @ UTEPFinal 19–8
Model
pred Liberty 7.3 · actual Liberty 11
winner Liberty ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Liberty -1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.7 · mkt 9.5 · closer
Massachusetts @ Kent StateFinal 6–42
Model
pred Massachusetts 8.3 · actual Kent State 36
winner Massachusetts ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Massachusetts +1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 44.3 · mkt 34.5 · mkt closer
BYU @ ArizonaFinal 33–27
Model
pred BYU 8.6 · actual BYU 6
winner BYU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned BYU -2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.6 · mkt 3.5 · closer
Nebraska @ MarylandFinal 34–31
Model
pred Nebraska 9.0 · actual Nebraska 3
winner Nebraska ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Nebraska -7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 6.0 · mkt 4.0 · mkt closer
San Diego State @ NevadaFinal 44–10
Model
pred San Diego State 9.4 · actual San Diego State 34
winner San Diego State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San Diego State -6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 24.6 · mkt 27.5 · closer
Louisiana Tech @ Kennesaw StateFinal 7–35
Model
pred Louisiana Tech 10.8 · actual Kennesaw State 28
winner Louisiana Tech ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana Tech -4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 38.8 · mkt 32.5 · mkt closer
Houston @ Oklahoma StateFinal 39–17
Model
pred Houston 11.3 · actual Houston 22
winner Houston ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma State +14.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.7 · mkt 7.5 · mkt closer
Toledo @ Bowling GreenFinal 23–28
Model
pred Toledo 12.7 · actual Bowling Green 5
winner Toledo ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Toledo -10.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.7 · mkt 15.5 · mkt closer
Clemson @ Boston CollegeFinal 41–10
Model
pred Clemson 13.1 · actual Clemson 31
winner Clemson ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Boston College +14.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.9 · mkt 17.0 · mkt closer
Miami (OH) @ AkronFinal 20–7
Model
pred Miami (OH) 13.7 · actual Miami (OH) 13
winner Miami (OH) ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Miami (OH) -11.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.7 · mkt 1.5 · closer
Navy @ TempleFinal 32–31
Model
pred Navy 14.4 · actual Navy 1
winner Navy ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Navy -10.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.4 · mkt 9.0 · mkt closer
Ohio State @ IllinoisFinal 34–16
Model
pred Ohio State 21.5 · actual Ohio State 18
winner Ohio State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ohio State -15.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.5 · mkt 3.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.