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CFB Betting Edge

2025 · Week 6 · FBS · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 6 backtest · FBS · 50 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
30–2060%
ATS vs close
22–27 · 1P45%
Model margin MAE
12.2
Market margin MAE
10.5
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Kent State @ OklahomaFinal 0–44
Model
pred Oklahoma 47.4 · actual Oklahoma 44
winner Oklahoma ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma -46.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 3.4 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Tulsa @ MemphisFinal 7–45
Model
pred Memphis 23.5 · actual Memphis 38
winner Memphis ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Memphis -21.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.5 · mkt 17.0 · closer
West Virginia @ BYUFinal 24–38
Model
pred BYU 22.0 · actual BYU 14
winner BYU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned BYU -19.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.0 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
Mississippi State @ Texas A&MFinal 9–31
Model
pred Texas A&M 20.4 · actual Texas A&M 22
winner Texas A&M ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas A&M -17.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.6 · mkt 4.5 · closer
Charlotte @ South FloridaFinal 26–54
Model
pred South Florida 17.5 · actual South Florida 28
winner South Florida ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Charlotte +28.0Push
margin err: model 10.5 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
Florida International @ UConnFinal 10–51
Model
pred UConn 16.9 · actual UConn 41
winner UConn ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UConn -7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 24.1 · mkt 34.0 · closer
Kentucky @ GeorgiaFinal 14–35
Model
pred Georgia 16.1 · actual Georgia 21
winner Georgia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kentucky +19.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 4.9 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Air Force @ NavyFinal 31–34
Model
pred Navy 15.8 · actual Navy 3
winner Navy ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Navy -13.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.8 · mkt 10.5 · mkt closer
Coastal Carolina @ Old DominionFinal 7–47
Model
pred Old Dominion 15.0 · actual Old Dominion 40
winner Old Dominion ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Coastal Carolina +18.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 25.0 · mkt 21.5 · mkt closer
Michigan State @ NebraskaFinal 27–38
Model
pred Nebraska 14.9 · actual Nebraska 11
winner Nebraska ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Nebraska -12.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 3.9 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Syracuse @ SMUFinal 18–31
Model
pred SMU 14.4 · actual SMU 13
winner SMU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Syracuse +17.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.4 · mkt 4.5 · closer
Minnesota @ Ohio StateFinal 3–42
Model
pred Ohio State 14.3 · actual Ohio State 39
winner Ohio State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Minnesota +23.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.7 · mkt 15.5 · mkt closer
Florida Atlantic @ RiceFinal 27–21
Model
pred Rice 13.3 · actual Florida Atlantic 6
winner Rice ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Rice -4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.3 · mkt 10.5 · mkt closer
Colorado @ TCUFinal 21–35
Model
pred TCU 12.7 · actual TCU 14
winner TCU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado +13.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 1.3 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Wisconsin @ MichiganFinal 10–24
Model
pred Michigan 12.2 · actual Michigan 14
winner Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Wisconsin +17.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.8 · mkt 3.5 · closer
Nevada @ Fresno StateFinal 17–20
Model
pred Fresno State 10.8 · actual Fresno State 3
winner Fresno State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Nevada +12.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.8 · mkt 9.5 · closer
Colorado State @ San Diego StateFinal 24–45
Model
pred San Diego State 10.7 · actual San Diego State 21
winner San Diego State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San Diego State -4.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.3 · mkt 16.5 · closer
UL Monroe @ NorthwesternFinal 7–42
Model
pred Northwestern 10.6 · actual Northwestern 35
winner Northwestern ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UL Monroe +12.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.4 · mkt 22.5 · mkt closer
Eastern Michigan @ BuffaloFinal 30–31
Model
pred Buffalo 10.1 · actual Buffalo 1
winner Buffalo ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Buffalo -9.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 9.1 · mkt 8.5 · mkt closer
Boise State @ Notre DameFinal 7–28
Model
pred Notre Dame 9.6 · actual Notre Dame 21
winner Notre Dame ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Boise State +21.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 11.4 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Oklahoma State @ ArizonaFinal 13–41
Model
pred Arizona 8.6 · actual Arizona 28
winner Arizona ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma State +21.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.4 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
Virginia @ LouisvilleFinal 30–27
Model
pred Louisville 6.9 · actual Virginia 3
winner Louisville ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Louisville -6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 9.9 · mkt 9.5 · mkt closer
Boston College @ PittsburghFinal 7–48
Model
pred Pittsburgh 5.8 · actual Pittsburgh 41
winner Pittsburgh ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Boston College +6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 35.2 · mkt 34.5 · mkt closer
Kansas State @ BaylorFinal 34–35
Model
pred Baylor 4.4 · actual Baylor 1
winner Baylor ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kansas State +4.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.4 · mkt 3.5 · closer
Miami (OH) @ Northern IllinoisFinal 25–14
Model
pred Northern Illinois 4.1 · actual Miami (OH) 11
winner Northern Illinois ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Northern Illinois +4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 15.1 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
Miami @ Florida StateFinal 28–22
Model
pred Florida State 4.0 · actual Miami 6
winner Florida State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Florida State +3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.0 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Vanderbilt @ AlabamaFinal 14–30
Model
pred Alabama 2.7 · actual Alabama 16
winner Alabama ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Vanderbilt +13.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.3 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Army @ UABFinal 31–13
Model
pred UAB 1.9 · actual Army 18
winner UAB ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UAB +6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.9 · mkt 11.5 · mkt closer
Duke @ CaliforniaFinal 45–21
Model
pred California 0.5 · actual Duke 24
winner California ✗
ATS vs close
leaned California +3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.5 · mkt 20.5 · mkt closer
Western Kentucky @ DelawareFinal 27–24
Model
pred Delaware 0.2 · actual Western Kentucky 3
winner Delaware ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Western Kentucky +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.2 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Wake Forest @ Virginia TechFinal 30–23
Model
pred Virginia Tech 0.1 · actual Wake Forest 7
winner Virginia Tech ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Wake Forest +4.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.1 · mkt 11.5 · closer
Kansas @ UCFFinal 27–20
Model
pred UCF 0.0 · actual Kansas 7
winner UCF ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UCF +4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.0 · mkt 3.0 · mkt closer
Oregon State @ App StateFinal 23–27
Model
pred Oregon State 0.2 · actual App State 4
winner Oregon State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State +2.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 4.2 · mkt 2.0 · mkt closer
Sam Houston @ New Mexico StateFinal 10–37
Model
pred Sam Houston 0.3 · actual New Mexico State 27
winner Sam Houston ✗
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico State +2.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 27.3 · mkt 29.0 · closer
South Alabama @ TroyFinal 24–31
Model
pred South Alabama 1.1 · actual Troy 7
winner South Alabama ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Troy +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.1 · mkt 9.5 · closer
Washington @ MarylandFinal 24–20
Model
pred Washington 1.1 · actual Washington 4
winner Washington ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Maryland +5.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.9 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Iowa State @ CincinnatiFinal 30–38
Model
pred Iowa State 1.7 · actual Cincinnati 8
winner Iowa State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa State +1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 9.7 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
New Mexico @ San José StateFinal 28–35
Model
pred New Mexico 1.8 · actual San José State 7
winner New Mexico ✗
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico +2.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.8 · mkt 5.0 · mkt closer
Central Michigan @ AkronFinal 22–28
Model
pred Central Michigan 2.0 · actual Akron 6
winner Central Michigan ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Akron +7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.0 · mkt 13.0 · closer
Texas Tech @ HoustonFinal 35–11
Model
pred Texas Tech 2.8 · actual Texas Tech 24
winner Texas Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Houston +13.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 21.2 · mkt 11.0 · mkt closer
UTSA @ TempleFinal 21–27
Model
pred UTSA 4.1 · actual Temple 6
winner UTSA ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Temple +6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.1 · mkt 12.5 · closer
Illinois @ PurdueFinal 43–27
Model
pred Illinois 9.9 · actual Illinois 16
winner Illinois ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Illinois -7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.1 · mkt 9.0 · closer
Texas @ FloridaFinal 21–29
Model
pred Texas 11.5 · actual Florida 8
winner Texas ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Texas -4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.5 · mkt 12.5 · mkt closer
Texas State @ Arkansas StateFinal 30–31
Model
pred Texas State 12.0 · actual Arkansas State 1
winner Texas State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Arkansas State +14.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 13.0 · mkt 15.0 · closer
UNLV @ WyomingFinal 31–17
Model
pred UNLV 12.4 · actual UNLV 14
winner UNLV ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UNLV -4.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.6 · mkt 9.5 · closer
Western Michigan @ MassachusettsFinal 21–3
Model
pred Western Michigan 13.8 · actual Western Michigan 18
winner Western Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Western Michigan -12.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.2 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Ohio @ Ball StateFinal 14–20
Model
pred Ohio 15.4 · actual Ball State 6
winner Ohio ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Ohio -14.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 21.4 · mkt 20.0 · mkt closer
Clemson @ North CarolinaFinal 38–10
Model
pred Clemson 16.2 · actual Clemson 28
winner Clemson ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Clemson -15.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 11.8 · mkt 12.5 · closer
James Madison @ Georgia StateFinal 14–7
Model
pred James Madison 21.3 · actual James Madison 7
winner James Madison ✓
ATS vs close
leaned James Madison -19.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.3 · mkt 12.5 · mkt closer
Penn State @ UCLAFinal 37–42
Model
pred Penn State 22.7 · actual UCLA 5
winner Penn State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UCLA +24.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 27.7 · mkt 29.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.