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2025 · Week 5 · FBS · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 5 backtest · FBS · 51 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
31–2061%
ATS vs close
18–30 · 2P38%
Model margin MAE
12.2
Market margin MAE
9.1
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Massachusetts @ MissouriFinal 6–42
Model
pred Missouri 43.2 · actual Missouri 36
winner Missouri ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Massachusetts +44.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.2 · mkt 8.5 · closer
Utah State @ VanderbiltFinal 35–55
Model
pred Vanderbilt 28.2 · actual Vanderbilt 20
winner Vanderbilt ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Vanderbilt -23.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.2 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
Akron @ ToledoFinal 3–45
Model
pred Toledo 20.6 · actual Toledo 42
winner Toledo ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Akron +21.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 21.4 · mkt 20.5 · mkt closer
Rice @ NavyFinal 13–21
Model
pred Navy 19.0 · actual Navy 8
winner Navy ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Navy -14.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.0 · mkt 6.0 · mkt closer
Virginia Tech @ NC StateFinal 23–21
Model
pred NC State 14.4 · actual Virginia Tech 2
winner NC State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned NC State -10.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.4 · mkt 12.0 · mkt closer
South Alabama @ North TexasFinal 22–36
Model
pred North Texas 13.3 · actual North Texas 14
winner North Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned North Texas -13.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.7 · mkt 1.0 · closer
Georgia Southern @ James MadisonFinal 10–35
Model
pred James Madison 12.4 · actual James Madison 25
winner James Madison ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia Southern +15.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.6 · mkt 10.0 · mkt closer
Washington State @ Colorado StateFinal 20–3
Model
pred Colorado State 9.9 · actual Washington State 17
winner Colorado State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado State -4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 26.9 · mkt 21.5 · mkt closer
Cincinnati @ KansasFinal 37–34
Model
pred Kansas 9.3 · actual Cincinnati 3
winner Kansas ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Kansas -5.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.3 · mkt 8.5 · mkt closer
New Mexico State @ New MexicoFinal 20–38
Model
pred New Mexico 9.2 · actual New Mexico 18
winner New Mexico ✓
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico State +16.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.8 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
LSU @ Ole MissFinal 19–24
Model
pred Ole Miss 9.1 · actual Ole Miss 5
winner Ole Miss ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ole Miss -2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.1 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Liberty @ Old DominionFinal 7–21
Model
pred Old Dominion 8.1 · actual Old Dominion 14
winner Old Dominion ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Liberty +14.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.9 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
App State @ Boise StateFinal 14–47
Model
pred Boise State 8.1 · actual Boise State 33
winner Boise State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned App State +16.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.9 · mkt 16.5 · mkt closer
Auburn @ Texas A&MFinal 10–16
Model
pred Texas A&M 7.8 · actual Texas A&M 6
winner Texas A&M ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas A&M -6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 1.8 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Army @ East CarolinaFinal 6–28
Model
pred East Carolina 7.4 · actual East Carolina 22
winner East Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned East Carolina -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.6 · mkt 18.5 · closer
Bowling Green @ OhioFinal 20–35
Model
pred Ohio 6.6 · actual Ohio 15
winner Ohio ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Bowling Green +7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.4 · mkt 7.5 · mkt closer
California @ Boston CollegeFinal 28–24
Model
pred Boston College 6.0 · actual California 4
winner Boston College ✗
ATS vs close
model matched the close — no lean
margin err: model 10.0 · mkt 10.0 · tie
UCLA @ NorthwesternFinal 14–17
Model
pred Northwestern 5.8 · actual Northwestern 3
winner Northwestern ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UCLA +6.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.8 · mkt 3.0 · closer
San José State @ StanfordFinal 29–30
Model
pred Stanford 5.2 · actual Stanford 1
winner Stanford ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Stanford -3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 4.2 · mkt 2.0 · mkt closer
Oregon @ Penn StateFinal 30–24
Model
pred Penn State 5.0 · actual Oregon 6
winner Penn State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Penn State -4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.0 · mkt 10.0 · mkt closer
Hawai'i @ Air ForceFinal 44–35
Model
pred Air Force 4.0 · actual Hawai'i 9
winner Air Force ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Hawai'i +7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 13.0 · mkt 16.0 · closer
Duke @ SyracuseFinal 38–3
Model
pred Syracuse 3.9 · actual Duke 35
winner Syracuse ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Syracuse +4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 38.9 · mkt 31.0 · mkt closer
Ohio State @ WashingtonFinal 24–6
Model
pred Washington 2.6 · actual Ohio State 18
winner Washington ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Washington +9.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.6 · mkt 8.5 · mkt closer
Notre Dame @ ArkansasFinal 56–13
Model
pred Arkansas 1.3 · actual Notre Dame 43
winner Arkansas ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Arkansas +5.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 44.3 · mkt 37.5 · mkt closer
Kentucky @ South CarolinaFinal 13–35
Model
pred South Carolina 1.1 · actual South Carolina 22
winner South Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kentucky +5.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.9 · mkt 16.5 · mkt closer
Rutgers @ MinnesotaFinal 28–31
Model
pred Rutgers 1.1 · actual Minnesota 3
winner Rutgers ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Rutgers +3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.1 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
UConn @ BuffaloFinal 20–17
Model
pred UConn 1.7 · actual UConn 3
winner UConn ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Buffalo +3.0Push
margin err: model 1.3 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
UCF @ Kansas StateFinal 20–34
Model
pred UCF 1.8 · actual Kansas State 14
winner UCF ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UCF +6.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 15.8 · mkt 8.0 · mkt closer
TCU @ Arizona StateFinal 24–27
Model
pred TCU 1.9 · actual Arizona State 3
winner TCU ✗
ATS vs close
leaned TCU +3.0Push
margin err: model 4.9 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
Arizona @ Iowa StateFinal 14–39
Model
pred Arizona 2.6 · actual Iowa State 25
winner Arizona ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Arizona +4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 27.6 · mkt 21.0 · mkt closer
Eastern Michigan @ Central MichiganFinal 13–24
Model
pred Eastern Michigan 2.7 · actual Central Michigan 11
winner Eastern Michigan ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Eastern Michigan +3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.7 · mkt 8.0 · mkt closer
Indiana @ IowaFinal 20–15
Model
pred Indiana 2.9 · actual Indiana 5
winner Indiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa +9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.1 · mkt 4.5 · closer
Middle Tennessee @ Kennesaw StateFinal 16–24
Model
pred Middle Tennessee 3.4 · actual Kennesaw State 8
winner Middle Tennessee ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Middle Tennessee +7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.4 · mkt 1.0 · mkt closer
Alabama @ GeorgiaFinal 24–21
Model
pred Alabama 3.5 · actual Alabama 3
winner Alabama ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Alabama +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.5 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Marshall @ LouisianaFinal 51–54
Model
pred Marshall 4.0 · actual Louisiana 3
winner Marshall ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Marshall -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.0 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
Florida State @ VirginiaFinal 38–46
Model
pred Florida State 4.2 · actual Virginia 8
winner Florida State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Virginia +7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 12.2 · mkt 15.0 · closer
Louisiana Tech @ UTEPFinal 30–11
Model
pred Louisiana Tech 5.0 · actual Louisiana Tech 19
winner Louisiana Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana Tech -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.0 · mkt 15.5 · closer
Louisville @ PittsburghFinal 34–27
Model
pred Louisville 5.2 · actual Louisville 7
winner Louisville ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Louisville -3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.8 · mkt 4.0 · closer
BYU @ ColoradoFinal 24–21
Model
pred BYU 7.5 · actual BYU 3
winner BYU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned BYU -6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 4.5 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
Arkansas State @ UL MonroeFinal 16–28
Model
pred Arkansas State 8.0 · actual UL Monroe 12
winner Arkansas State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Arkansas State +1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.0 · mkt 10.5 · mkt closer
Tennessee @ Mississippi StateFinal 41–34
Model
pred Tennessee 8.2 · actual Tennessee 7
winner Tennessee ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Tennessee -7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 1.2 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Jacksonville State @ Southern MissFinal 25–42
Model
pred Jacksonville State 8.8 · actual Southern Miss 17
winner Jacksonville State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Jacksonville State +4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 25.8 · mkt 12.5 · mkt closer
Utah @ West VirginiaFinal 48–14
Model
pred Utah 9.3 · actual Utah 34
winner Utah ✓
ATS vs close
leaned West Virginia +13.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.7 · mkt 20.5 · mkt closer
USC @ IllinoisFinal 32–34
Model
pred USC 10.1 · actual Illinois 2
winner USC ✗
ATS vs close
leaned USC -6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.1 · mkt 8.5 · mkt closer
Tulane @ TulsaFinal 31–14
Model
pred Tulane 10.5 · actual Tulane 17
winner Tulane ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Tulsa +14.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 6.5 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Georgia Tech @ Wake ForestFinal 30–29
Model
pred Georgia Tech 11.4 · actual Georgia Tech 1
winner Georgia Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Wake Forest +13.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.4 · mkt 12.0 · closer
Western Kentucky @ Missouri StateFinal 27–22
Model
pred Western Kentucky 13.1 · actual Western Kentucky 5
winner Western Kentucky ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Western Kentucky -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.1 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
San Diego State @ Northern IllinoisFinal 6–3
Model
pred San Diego State 13.5 · actual San Diego State 3
winner San Diego State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San Diego State -1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.5 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Baylor @ Oklahoma StateFinal 45–27
Model
pred Baylor 13.6 · actual Baylor 18
winner Baylor ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma State +21.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.4 · mkt 3.0 · mkt closer
Memphis @ Florida AtlanticFinal 55–26
Model
pred Memphis 17.6 · actual Memphis 29
winner Memphis ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Memphis -14.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 11.4 · mkt 15.0 · closer
Houston @ Oregon StateFinal 27–24
Model
pred Houston 19.9 · actual Houston 3
winner Houston ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Houston -11.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.9 · mkt 8.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.