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2025 · Week 4 · FBS · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 4 backtest · FBS · 50 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
34–1668%
ATS vs close
22–26 · 1P46%
Model margin MAE
13.8
Market margin MAE
12.1
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Sam Houston @ TexasFinal 0–55
Model
pred Texas 34.7 · actual Texas 55
winner Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Sam Houston +39.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.3 · mkt 15.5 · mkt closer
Kent State @ Florida StateFinal 10–66
Model
pred Florida State 34.0 · actual Florida State 56
winner Florida State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kent State +45.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 22.0 · mkt 11.0 · mkt closer
Georgia State @ VanderbiltFinal 21–70
Model
pred Vanderbilt 32.3 · actual Vanderbilt 49
winner Vanderbilt ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Vanderbilt -27.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 16.7 · mkt 21.5 · closer
Oregon State @ OregonFinal 7–41
Model
pred Oregon 31.9 · actual Oregon 34
winner Oregon ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State +34.0Push
margin err: model 2.1 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
UAB @ TennesseeFinal 24–56
Model
pred Tennessee 28.6 · actual Tennessee 32
winner Tennessee ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UAB +39.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.4 · mkt 7.0 · closer
Michigan State @ USCFinal 31–45
Model
pred USC 23.9 · actual USC 14
winner USC ✓
ATS vs close
leaned USC -18.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 9.9 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
Coastal Carolina @ South AlabamaFinal 38–20
Model
pred South Alabama 23.1 · actual Coastal Carolina 18
winner South Alabama ✗
ATS vs close
leaned South Alabama -14.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 41.1 · mkt 32.5 · mkt closer
UL Monroe @ UTEPFinal 31–25
Model
pred UTEP 21.7 · actual UL Monroe 6
winner UTEP ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UTEP -5.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 27.7 · mkt 11.5 · mkt closer
Ball State @ UConnFinal 25–31
Model
pred UConn 21.4 · actual UConn 6
winner UConn ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UConn -21.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 15.4 · mkt 15.0 · mkt closer
Bowling Green @ LouisvilleFinal 17–40
Model
pred Louisville 21.0 · actual Louisville 23
winner Louisville ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Bowling Green +26.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.0 · mkt 3.5 · closer
Syracuse @ ClemsonFinal 34–21
Model
pred Clemson 17.8 · actual Syracuse 13
winner Clemson ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Clemson -17.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 30.8 · mkt 30.5 · mkt closer
Stanford @ VirginiaFinal 20–48
Model
pred Virginia 17.2 · actual Virginia 28
winner Virginia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Virginia -16.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.8 · mkt 11.5 · closer
Tulane @ Ole MissFinal 10–45
Model
pred Ole Miss 15.2 · actual Ole Miss 35
winner Ole Miss ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ole Miss -12.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 19.8 · mkt 22.5 · closer
Temple @ Georgia TechFinal 24–45
Model
pred Georgia Tech 14.9 · actual Georgia Tech 21
winner Georgia Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Temple +24.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.1 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
South Carolina @ MissouriFinal 20–29
Model
pred Missouri 13.8 · actual Missouri 9
winner Missouri ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Missouri -10.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 4.8 · mkt 1.0 · mkt closer
SMU @ TCUFinal 24–35
Model
pred TCU 13.7 · actual TCU 11
winner TCU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned TCU -6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.7 · mkt 4.5 · closer
Wyoming @ ColoradoFinal 20–37
Model
pred Colorado 13.7 · actual Colorado 17
winner Colorado ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado -12.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.3 · mkt 4.5 · closer
Northern Illinois @ Mississippi StateFinal 10–38
Model
pred Mississippi State 11.7 · actual Mississippi State 28
winner Mississippi State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Northern Illinois +24.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.3 · mkt 4.0 · mkt closer
Southern Miss @ Louisiana TechFinal 20–30
Model
pred Louisiana Tech 10.8 · actual Louisiana Tech 10
winner Louisiana Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana Tech -3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.8 · mkt 7.0 · closer
Florida @ MiamiFinal 7–26
Model
pred Miami 10.7 · actual Miami 19
winner Miami ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Miami -8.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.3 · mkt 10.5 · closer
West Virginia @ KansasFinal 10–41
Model
pred Kansas 10.4 · actual Kansas 31
winner Kansas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned West Virginia +12.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.6 · mkt 18.5 · mkt closer
James Madison @ LibertyFinal 31–13
Model
pred Liberty 10.4 · actual James Madison 18
winner Liberty ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Liberty +7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 28.4 · mkt 10.5 · mkt closer
Delaware @ Florida InternationalFinal 38–16
Model
pred Florida International 9.9 · actual Delaware 22
winner Florida International ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Florida International -4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 31.9 · mkt 26.0 · mkt closer
North Carolina @ UCFFinal 9–34
Model
pred UCF 9.6 · actual UCF 25
winner UCF ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UCF -7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 15.4 · mkt 18.0 · closer
Troy @ BuffaloFinal 21–17
Model
pred Buffalo 9.3 · actual Troy 4
winner Buffalo ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Buffalo -5.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.3 · mkt 9.5 · mkt closer
Purdue @ Notre DameFinal 30–56
Model
pred Notre Dame 8.0 · actual Notre Dame 26
winner Notre Dame ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Purdue +24.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.0 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Michigan @ NebraskaFinal 30–27
Model
pred Nebraska 7.1 · actual Michigan 3
winner Nebraska ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Nebraska +1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.1 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Tulsa @ Oklahoma StateFinal 19–12
Model
pred Oklahoma State 5.2 · actual Tulsa 7
winner Oklahoma State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Tulsa +10.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 12.2 · mkt 17.0 · closer
Nevada @ Western KentuckyFinal 16–31
Model
pred Western Kentucky 5.0 · actual Western Kentucky 15
winner Western Kentucky ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Nevada +7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.0 · mkt 7.5 · mkt closer
Illinois @ IndianaFinal 10–63
Model
pred Indiana 4.5 · actual Indiana 53
winner Indiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Illinois +7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 48.5 · mkt 46.0 · mkt closer
Auburn @ OklahomaFinal 17–24
Model
pred Oklahoma 4.5 · actual Oklahoma 7
winner Oklahoma ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Auburn +6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 2.5 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Boise State @ Air ForceFinal 49–37
Model
pred Air Force 3.6 · actual Boise State 12
winner Air Force ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Air Force +11.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 15.6 · mkt 1.0 · mkt closer
Maryland @ WisconsinFinal 27–10
Model
pred Wisconsin 1.8 · actual Maryland 17
winner Wisconsin ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Maryland +10.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 18.8 · mkt 27.5 · closer
Arkansas @ MemphisFinal 31–32
Model
pred Arkansas 0.1 · actual Memphis 1
winner Arkansas ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Memphis +7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.1 · mkt 8.0 · closer
Marshall @ Middle TennesseeFinal 42–28
Model
pred Marshall 0.8 · actual Marshall 14
winner Marshall ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Middle Tennessee +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.2 · mkt 11.5 · mkt closer
North Texas @ ArmyFinal 45–38
Model
pred North Texas 2.3 · actual North Texas 7
winner North Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Army +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 4.7 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
Fresno State @ Hawai'iFinal 23–21
Model
pred Fresno State 2.5 · actual Fresno State 2
winner Fresno State ✓
ATS vs close
model matched the close — no lean
margin err: model 0.5 · mkt 0.5 · tie
UNLV @ Miami (OH)Final 41–38
Model
pred UNLV 3.8 · actual UNLV 3
winner UNLV ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UNLV -1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.8 · mkt 1.5 · closer
Arizona State @ BaylorFinal 27–24
Model
pred Arizona State 4.0 · actual Arizona State 3
winner Arizona State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arizona State +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.0 · mkt 6.0 · closer
UTSA @ Colorado StateFinal 17–16
Model
pred UTSA 4.0 · actual UTSA 1
winner UTSA ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado State +5.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.0 · mkt 4.0 · closer
Iowa @ RutgersFinal 38–28
Model
pred Iowa 4.1 · actual Iowa 10
winner Iowa ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa -2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.9 · mkt 7.5 · closer
Louisiana @ Eastern MichiganFinal 31–34
Model
pred Louisiana 4.7 · actual Eastern Michigan 3
winner Louisiana ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.7 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
Arkansas State @ Kennesaw StateFinal 21–28
Model
pred Arkansas State 5.0 · actual Kennesaw State 7
winner Arkansas State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Arkansas State -4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.0 · mkt 11.5 · mkt closer
Texas Tech @ UtahFinal 34–10
Model
pred Texas Tech 7.7 · actual Texas Tech 24
winner Texas Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas Tech +3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 16.3 · mkt 27.5 · closer
Rice @ CharlotteFinal 28–17
Model
pred Rice 7.9 · actual Rice 11
winner Rice ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Rice -1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.1 · mkt 9.5 · closer
Toledo @ Western MichiganFinal 13–14
Model
pred Toledo 8.3 · actual Western Michigan 1
winner Toledo ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Western Michigan +13.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.3 · mkt 14.0 · closer
NC State @ DukeFinal 33–45
Model
pred NC State 12.3 · actual Duke 12
winner NC State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned NC State +3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.3 · mkt 9.0 · mkt closer
BYU @ East CarolinaFinal 34–13
Model
pred BYU 12.8 · actual BYU 21
winner BYU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned BYU -6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.2 · mkt 14.5 · closer
Washington @ Washington StateFinal 59–24
Model
pred Washington 14.9 · actual Washington 35
winner Washington ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Washington State +21.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.1 · mkt 14.0 · mkt closer
California @ San Diego StateFinal 0–34
Model
pred California 16.7 · actual San Diego State 34
winner California ✗
ATS vs close
leaned California -14.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 50.7 · mkt 48.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.