CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 3 · FBS · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 3 backtest · FBS · 47 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
34–1372%
ATS vs close
24–2351%
Model margin MAE
15.3
Market margin MAE
13.1
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
UTEP @ TexasFinal 10–27
Model
pred Texas 37.2 · actual Texas 17
winner Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UTEP +39.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 20.2 · mkt 22.5 · closer
Massachusetts @ IowaFinal 7–47
Model
pred Iowa 36.5 · actual Iowa 40
winner Iowa ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa -35.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.5 · mkt 4.5 · closer
Central Michigan @ MichiganFinal 3–63
Model
pred Michigan 29.1 · actual Michigan 60
winner Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Michigan -27.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 30.9 · mkt 32.5 · closer
Eastern Michigan @ KentuckyFinal 23–48
Model
pred Kentucky 23.8 · actual Kentucky 25
winner Kentucky ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Eastern Michigan +26.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.2 · mkt 1.5 · closer
Ohio @ Ohio StateFinal 9–37
Model
pred Ohio State 23.8 · actual Ohio State 28
winner Ohio State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ohio +28.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.2 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Akron @ UABFinal 28–31
Model
pred UAB 21.5 · actual UAB 3
winner UAB ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UAB -12.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.5 · mkt 9.5 · mkt closer
South Alabama @ AuburnFinal 15–31
Model
pred Auburn 19.6 · actual Auburn 16
winner Auburn ✓
ATS vs close
leaned South Alabama +26.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.6 · mkt 10.5 · closer
Oregon State @ Texas TechFinal 14–45
Model
pred Texas Tech 19.0 · actual Texas Tech 31
winner Texas Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State +24.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.0 · mkt 7.0 · mkt closer
Western Michigan @ IllinoisFinal 0–38
Model
pred Illinois 18.9 · actual Illinois 38
winner Illinois ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Western Michigan +27.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.1 · mkt 10.5 · mkt closer
Wisconsin @ AlabamaFinal 14–38
Model
pred Alabama 17.6 · actual Alabama 24
winner Alabama ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Wisconsin +18.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 6.4 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
New Mexico @ UCLAFinal 35–10
Model
pred UCLA 14.8 · actual New Mexico 25
winner UCLA ✗
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico +15.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 39.8 · mkt 40.5 · closer
Duke @ TulaneFinal 27–34
Model
pred Tulane 13.3 · actual Tulane 7
winner Tulane ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Tulane -1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.3 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
Louisiana @ MissouriFinal 10–52
Model
pred Missouri 12.0 · actual Missouri 42
winner Missouri ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana +27.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 30.0 · mkt 14.5 · mkt closer
Middle Tennessee @ NevadaFinal 14–13
Model
pred Nevada 9.9 · actual Middle Tennessee 1
winner Nevada ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Nevada -9.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.9 · mkt 10.5 · mkt closer
Kansas State @ ArizonaFinal 17–23
Model
pred Arizona 7.6 · actual Arizona 6
winner Arizona ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arizona +1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.6 · mkt 7.5 · closer
Florida @ LSUFinal 10–20
Model
pred LSU 7.1 · actual LSU 10
winner LSU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned LSU -5.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.9 · mkt 5.0 · closer
South Florida @ MiamiFinal 12–49
Model
pred Miami 6.1 · actual Miami 37
winner Miami ✓
ATS vs close
leaned South Florida +17.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 30.9 · mkt 19.5 · mkt closer
Air Force @ Utah StateFinal 30–49
Model
pred Utah State 6.0 · actual Utah State 19
winner Utah State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Utah State +4.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 13.0 · mkt 23.0 · closer
Old Dominion @ Virginia TechFinal 45–26
Model
pred Virginia Tech 5.1 · actual Old Dominion 19
winner Virginia Tech ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Old Dominion +5.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 24.1 · mkt 24.5 · closer
Texas State @ Arizona StateFinal 15–34
Model
pred Arizona State 4.3 · actual Arizona State 19
winner Arizona State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas State +18.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.7 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Florida Atlantic @ Florida InternationalFinal 28–38
Model
pred Florida International 3.9 · actual Florida International 10
winner Florida International ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Florida International -2.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.1 · mkt 8.0 · closer
Minnesota @ CaliforniaFinal 14–27
Model
pred California 3.5 · actual California 13
winner California ✓
ATS vs close
leaned California +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.5 · mkt 16.0 · closer
Colorado @ HoustonFinal 20–36
Model
pred Houston 1.7 · actual Houston 16
winner Houston ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado +4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.3 · mkt 12.0 · mkt closer
Clemson @ Georgia TechFinal 21–24
Model
pred Georgia Tech 0.7 · actual Georgia Tech 3
winner Georgia Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia Tech +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.3 · mkt 6.0 · closer
Oklahoma @ TempleFinal 42–3
Model
pred Temple 0.7 · actual Oklahoma 39
winner Temple ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Temple +23.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 39.7 · mkt 15.5 · mkt closer
Vanderbilt @ South CarolinaFinal 31–7
Model
pred Vanderbilt 2.1 · actual Vanderbilt 24
winner Vanderbilt ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Vanderbilt +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 21.9 · mkt 27.0 · closer
Arkansas @ Ole MissFinal 35–41
Model
pred Arkansas 3.6 · actual Ole Miss 6
winner Arkansas ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Arkansas +3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 9.6 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
New Mexico State @ Louisiana TechFinal 14–49
Model
pred New Mexico State 4.1 · actual Louisiana Tech 35
winner New Mexico State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico State +10.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 39.1 · mkt 25.0 · mkt closer
Liberty @ Bowling GreenFinal 13–23
Model
pred Liberty 5.3 · actual Bowling Green 10
winner Liberty ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Bowling Green +6.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 15.3 · mkt 16.0 · closer
Washington State @ North TexasFinal 10–59
Model
pred Washington State 5.6 · actual North Texas 49
winner Washington State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Washington State +6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 54.6 · mkt 42.5 · mkt closer
East Carolina @ Coastal CarolinaFinal 38–0
Model
pred East Carolina 5.9 · actual East Carolina 38
winner East Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Coastal Carolina +7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 32.1 · mkt 31.0 · mkt closer
NC State @ Wake ForestFinal 34–24
Model
pred NC State 6.0 · actual NC State 10
winner NC State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Wake Forest +7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 4.0 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Jacksonville State @ Georgia SouthernFinal 34–41
Model
pred Jacksonville State 6.3 · actual Georgia Southern 7
winner Jacksonville State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Jacksonville State +3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.3 · mkt 4.0 · mkt closer
Boston College @ StanfordFinal 20–30
Model
pred Boston College 6.5 · actual Stanford 10
winner Boston College ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Stanford +14.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 16.5 · mkt 24.0 · closer
UConn @ DelawareFinal 41–44
Model
pred UConn 9.7 · actual Delaware 3
winner UConn ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UConn -8.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.7 · mkt 11.5 · mkt closer
Texas A&M @ Notre DameFinal 41–40
Model
pred Texas A&M 9.8 · actual Texas A&M 1
winner Texas A&M ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas A&M +6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.8 · mkt 7.5 · mkt closer
Memphis @ TroyFinal 28–7
Model
pred Memphis 10.0 · actual Memphis 21
winner Memphis ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Memphis -4.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 11.0 · mkt 16.5 · closer
Pittsburgh @ West VirginiaFinal 24–31
Model
pred Pittsburgh 10.4 · actual West Virginia 7
winner Pittsburgh ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Pittsburgh -7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.4 · mkt 14.0 · mkt closer
App State @ Southern MissFinal 22–38
Model
pred App State 11.9 · actual Southern Miss 16
winner App State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned App State -3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 27.9 · mkt 19.0 · mkt closer
Georgia @ TennesseeFinal 44–41
Model
pred Georgia 12.0 · actual Georgia 3
winner Georgia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia -3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 9.0 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Navy @ TulsaFinal 42–23
Model
pred Navy 14.7 · actual Navy 19
winner Navy ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Navy -13.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.3 · mkt 5.5 · closer
SMU @ Missouri StateFinal 28–10
Model
pred SMU 15.0 · actual SMU 18
winner SMU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Missouri State +28.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.0 · mkt 10.5 · closer
USC @ PurdueFinal 33–17
Model
pred USC 15.4 · actual USC 16
winner USC ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Purdue +20.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.6 · mkt 4.5 · closer
Utah @ WyomingFinal 31–6
Model
pred Utah 16.5 · actual Utah 25
winner Utah ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Wyoming +24.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.5 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Oregon @ NorthwesternFinal 34–14
Model
pred Oregon 23.5 · actual Oregon 20
winner Oregon ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Northwestern +25.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.5 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Iowa State @ Arkansas StateFinal 24–16
Model
pred Iowa State 24.3 · actual Iowa State 8
winner Iowa State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa State -21.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.3 · mkt 13.0 · mkt closer
Buffalo @ Kent StateFinal 31–28
Model
pred Buffalo 25.5 · actual Buffalo 3
winner Buffalo ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Buffalo -24.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 22.5 · mkt 21.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.