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2025 · Week 2 · FBS · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 2 backtest · FBS · 51 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
38–1375%
ATS vs close
29–20 · 2P59%
Model margin MAE
12.4
Market margin MAE
11.0
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
UL Monroe @ AlabamaFinal 0–73
Model
pred Alabama 45.4 · actual Alabama 73
winner Alabama ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Alabama -34.3Cover ✓
margin err: model 27.6 · mkt 38.7 · closer
Florida International @ Penn StateFinal 0–34
Model
pred Penn State 42.4 · actual Penn State 34
winner Penn State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Penn State -41.8Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.4 · mkt 7.8 · mkt closer
Kent State @ Texas TechFinal 14–62
Model
pred Texas Tech 40.3 · actual Texas Tech 48
winner Texas Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kent State +48.0Push
margin err: model 7.7 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
Ball State @ AuburnFinal 3–42
Model
pred Auburn 31.3 · actual Auburn 39
winner Auburn ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ball State +42.8Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.7 · mkt 3.8 · mkt closer
Kennesaw State @ IndianaFinal 9–56
Model
pred Indiana 30.3 · actual Indiana 47
winner Indiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kennesaw State +35.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.7 · mkt 11.5 · mkt closer
Troy @ ClemsonFinal 16–27
Model
pred Clemson 30.1 · actual Clemson 11
winner Clemson ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Troy +30.3Cover ✓
margin err: model 19.1 · mkt 19.3 · closer
Louisiana Tech @ LSUFinal 7–23
Model
pred LSU 28.1 · actual LSU 16
winner LSU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana Tech +36.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 12.1 · mkt 20.5 · closer
Central Michigan @ PittsburghFinal 17–45
Model
pred Pittsburgh 25.6 · actual Pittsburgh 28
winner Pittsburgh ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Pittsburgh -21.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.4 · mkt 6.5 · closer
Georgia Southern @ USCFinal 20–59
Model
pred USC 25.3 · actual USC 39
winner USC ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia Southern +28.8Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.7 · mkt 10.2 · mkt closer
Delaware @ ColoradoFinal 7–31
Model
pred Colorado 25.4 · actual Colorado 24
winner Colorado ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado -23.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.4 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Akron @ NebraskaFinal 0–68
Model
pred Nebraska 25.1 · actual Nebraska 68
winner Nebraska ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Akron +33.8Miss ✗
margin err: model 42.9 · mkt 34.2 · mkt closer
Missouri State @ MarshallFinal 21–20
Model
pred Marshall 24.3 · actual Missouri State 1
winner Marshall ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Marshall -7.3Miss ✗
margin err: model 25.3 · mkt 8.3 · mkt closer
Utah State @ Texas A&MFinal 22–44
Model
pred Texas A&M 22.2 · actual Texas A&M 22
winner Texas A&M ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Utah State +34.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.2 · mkt 12.5 · closer
San José State @ TexasFinal 7–38
Model
pred Texas 22.1 · actual Texas 31
winner Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San José State +36.8Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.9 · mkt 5.8 · mkt closer
Sacramento State @ NevadaFinal 17–20
Model
pred Nevada 20.9 · actual Nevada 3
winner Nevada ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Nevada -8.8Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.9 · mkt 5.8 · mkt closer
Middle Tennessee @ WisconsinFinal 10–42
Model
pred Wisconsin 20.2 · actual Wisconsin 32
winner Wisconsin ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Middle Tennessee +28.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.8 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
Stanford @ BYUFinal 3–27
Model
pred BYU 19.3 · actual BYU 24
winner BYU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Stanford +20.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 4.7 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
UCLA @ UNLVFinal 23–30
Model
pred UNLV 17.3 · actual UNLV 7
winner UNLV ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UNLV +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.3 · mkt 9.5 · mkt closer
South Florida @ FloridaFinal 18–16
Model
pred Florida 16.2 · actual South Florida 2
winner Florida ✗
ATS vs close
leaned South Florida +18.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 18.2 · mkt 20.5 · closer
Miami (OH) @ RutgersFinal 17–45
Model
pred Rutgers 15.2 · actual Rutgers 28
winner Rutgers ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Miami (OH) +15.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.8 · mkt 12.5 · mkt closer
Oklahoma State @ OregonFinal 3–69
Model
pred Oregon 14.0 · actual Oregon 66
winner Oregon ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma State +28.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 52.0 · mkt 37.5 · mkt closer
Arkansas State @ ArkansasFinal 14–56
Model
pred Arkansas 13.8 · actual Arkansas 42
winner Arkansas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arkansas State +24.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 28.2 · mkt 18.0 · mkt closer
James Madison @ LouisvilleFinal 14–28
Model
pred Louisville 11.1 · actual Louisville 14
winner Louisville ✓
ATS vs close
leaned James Madison +15.3Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.9 · mkt 1.3 · mkt closer
Bowling Green @ CincinnatiFinal 20–34
Model
pred Cincinnati 10.6 · actual Cincinnati 14
winner Cincinnati ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Bowling Green +22.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.4 · mkt 8.0 · closer
Army @ Kansas StateFinal 24–21
Model
pred Kansas State 10.5 · actual Army 3
winner Kansas State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Army +16.8Cover ✓
margin err: model 13.5 · mkt 19.8 · closer
UAB @ NavyFinal 24–38
Model
pred Navy 8.9 · actual Navy 14
winner Navy ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UAB +21.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.1 · mkt 7.5 · closer
North Texas @ Western MichiganFinal 33–30
Model
pred Western Michigan 8.8 · actual North Texas 3
winner Western Michigan ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Western Michigan +12.3Cover ✓
margin err: model 11.8 · mkt 9.3 · mkt closer
San Diego State @ Washington StateFinal 13–36
Model
pred Washington State 8.4 · actual Washington State 23
winner Washington State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Washington State -2.3Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.6 · mkt 20.7 · closer
Kansas @ MissouriFinal 31–42
Model
pred Missouri 7.3 · actual Missouri 11
winner Missouri ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Missouri -6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.7 · mkt 4.5 · closer
West Virginia @ OhioFinal 10–17
Model
pred Ohio 4.9 · actual Ohio 7
winner Ohio ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ohio +3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.1 · mkt 10.5 · closer
UConn @ SyracuseFinal 20–27
Model
pred Syracuse 4.7 · actual Syracuse 7
winner Syracuse ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UConn +7.3Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.3 · mkt 0.3 · mkt closer
Baylor @ SMUFinal 48–45
Model
pred SMU 4.4 · actual Baylor 3
winner SMU ✗
ATS vs close
leaned SMU -2.8Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.4 · mkt 5.8 · mkt closer
Michigan @ OklahomaFinal 13–24
Model
pred Oklahoma 4.3 · actual Oklahoma 11
winner Oklahoma ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.7 · mkt 7.5 · closer
Northern Illinois @ MarylandFinal 9–20
Model
pred Maryland 2.9 · actual Maryland 11
winner Maryland ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Northern Illinois +16.8Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.1 · mkt 5.8 · mkt closer
Tulane @ South AlabamaFinal 33–31
Model
pred South Alabama 2.8 · actual Tulane 2
winner South Alabama ✗
ATS vs close
leaned South Alabama +13.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.8 · mkt 11.5 · closer
Western Kentucky @ ToledoFinal 21–45
Model
pred Toledo 2.0 · actual Toledo 24
winner Toledo ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Western Kentucky +8.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 22.0 · mkt 16.0 · mkt closer
Vanderbilt @ Virginia TechFinal 44–20
Model
pred Virginia Tech 1.9 · actual Vanderbilt 24
winner Virginia Tech ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Vanderbilt +2.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 25.9 · mkt 26.0 · closer
Liberty @ Jacksonville StateFinal 24–34
Model
pred Jacksonville State 1.7 · actual Jacksonville State 10
winner Jacksonville State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Jacksonville State +6.3Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.3 · mkt 16.3 · closer
Tulsa @ New Mexico StateFinal 14–21
Model
pred Tulsa 0.1 · actual New Mexico State 7
winner Tulsa ✗
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico State +3.3Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.1 · mkt 10.3 · closer
Boston College @ Michigan StateFinal 40–42
Model
pred Boston College 0.5 · actual Michigan State 2
winner Boston College ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Boston College +3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.5 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Illinois @ DukeFinal 45–19
Model
pred Illinois 0.9 · actual Illinois 26
winner Illinois ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Duke +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 25.1 · mkt 23.5 · mkt closer
Sam Houston @ Hawai'iFinal 20–37
Model
pred Sam Houston 1.3 · actual Hawai'i 17
winner Sam Houston ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Sam Houston +7.3Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.3 · mkt 9.7 · mkt closer
Iowa @ Iowa StateFinal 13–16
Model
pred Iowa 1.6 · actual Iowa State 3
winner Iowa ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa +3.0Push
margin err: model 4.6 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
Ole Miss @ KentuckyFinal 30–23
Model
pred Ole Miss 2.0 · actual Ole Miss 7
winner Ole Miss ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kentucky +7.8Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.0 · mkt 0.8 · mkt closer
Fresno State @ Oregon StateFinal 36–27
Model
pred Fresno State 2.5 · actual Fresno State 9
winner Fresno State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Fresno State +1.3Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.5 · mkt 10.3 · closer
North Carolina @ CharlotteFinal 20–3
Model
pred North Carolina 3.3 · actual North Carolina 17
winner North Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Charlotte +15.8Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.7 · mkt 1.2 · mkt closer
Virginia @ NC StateFinal 31–35
Model
pred Virginia 3.9 · actual NC State 4
winner Virginia ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Virginia +2.8Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.9 · mkt 1.2 · mkt closer
Houston @ RiceFinal 35–9
Model
pred Houston 4.7 · actual Houston 26
winner Houston ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Rice +13.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 21.3 · mkt 12.5 · mkt closer
Texas State @ UTSAFinal 43–36
Model
pred Texas State 8.8 · actual Texas State 7
winner Texas State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas State +4.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.8 · mkt 11.5 · closer
Arizona State @ Mississippi StateFinal 20–24
Model
pred Arizona State 9.0 · actual Mississippi State 4
winner Arizona State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Arizona State -5.8Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.0 · mkt 9.8 · mkt closer
Memphis @ Georgia StateFinal 38–16
Model
pred Memphis 9.7 · actual Memphis 22
winner Memphis ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia State +15.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.3 · mkt 7.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.