CFB
›

CFB Betting Edge

2025 · Week 14 · FBS · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Season202620252024
Week123456789101112131415
Week 14 backtest · FBS · 67 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
52–1578%
ATS vs close
37–25 · 4P60%
Model margin MAE
13.1
Market margin MAE
12.6
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Charlotte @ TulaneFinal 0–27
Model
pred Tulane 23.7 · actual Tulane 27
winner Tulane ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Charlotte +31.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.3 · mkt 4.0 · closer
Ball State @ Miami (OH)Final 24–45
Model
pred Miami (OH) 21.9 · actual Miami (OH) 21
winner Miami (OH) ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Miami (OH) -16.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.9 · mkt 4.5 · closer
Rice @ South FloridaFinal 3–52
Model
pred South Florida 20.1 · actual South Florida 49
winner South Florida ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Rice +28.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 28.9 · mkt 20.5 · mkt closer
UCLA @ USCFinal 10–29
Model
pred USC 19.4 · actual USC 19
winner USC ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UCLA +21.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.4 · mkt 2.5 · closer
Georgia State @ Old DominionFinal 10–27
Model
pred Old Dominion 18.0 · actual Old Dominion 17
winner Old Dominion ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia State +28.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.0 · mkt 11.5 · closer
Temple @ North TexasFinal 25–52
Model
pred North Texas 15.6 · actual North Texas 27
winner North Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Temple +20.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.4 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
Kent State @ Northern IllinoisFinal 35–31
Model
pred Northern Illinois 15.4 · actual Kent State 4
winner Northern Illinois ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Northern Illinois -5.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.4 · mkt 9.0 · mkt closer
Kennesaw State @ LibertyFinal 48–42
Model
pred Liberty 13.4 · actual Kennesaw State 6
winner Liberty ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Liberty +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.4 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
Colorado @ Kansas StateFinal 14–24
Model
pred Kansas State 13.3 · actual Kansas State 10
winner Kansas State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado +16.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.3 · mkt 6.5 · closer
UCF @ BYUFinal 21–41
Model
pred BYU 13.3 · actual BYU 20
winner BYU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UCF +17.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 6.7 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
UL Monroe @ LouisianaFinal 27–30
Model
pred Louisiana 12.9 · actual Louisiana 3
winner Louisiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana -11.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 9.9 · mkt 8.0 · mkt closer
UTEP @ DelawareFinal 31–61
Model
pred Delaware 12.8 · actual Delaware 30
winner Delaware ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Delaware -4.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 17.2 · mkt 25.5 · closer
South Alabama @ Texas StateFinal 26–49
Model
pred Texas State 12.4 · actual Texas State 23
winner Texas State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas State -9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.6 · mkt 13.5 · closer
Kentucky @ LouisvilleFinal 0–41
Model
pred Louisville 12.2 · actual Louisville 41
winner Louisville ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Louisville +1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 28.8 · mkt 42.5 · closer
North Carolina @ NC StateFinal 19–42
Model
pred NC State 11.8 · actual NC State 23
winner NC State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned NC State -7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 11.2 · mkt 16.0 · closer
Georgia Southern @ MarshallFinal 24–19
Model
pred Marshall 9.1 · actual Georgia Southern 5
winner Marshall ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia Southern +10.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.1 · mkt 15.5 · closer
Air Force @ Colorado StateFinal 42–21
Model
pred Colorado State 6.9 · actual Air Force 21
winner Colorado State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado State +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 27.9 · mkt 18.5 · mkt closer
Navy @ MemphisFinal 28–17
Model
pred Memphis 6.8 · actual Navy 11
winner Memphis ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Memphis -3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.8 · mkt 14.5 · mkt closer
Wyoming @ Hawai'iFinal 7–27
Model
pred Hawai'i 6.8 · actual Hawai'i 20
winner Hawai'i ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Wyoming +8.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.2 · mkt 11.5 · mkt closer
Western Kentucky @ Jacksonville StateFinal 34–37
Model
pred Jacksonville State 6.0 · actual Jacksonville State 3
winner Jacksonville State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Jacksonville State +1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.0 · mkt 4.5 · closer
Wisconsin @ MinnesotaFinal 7–17
Model
pred Minnesota 5.9 · actual Minnesota 10
winner Minnesota ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Minnesota +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.1 · mkt 12.5 · closer
Florida State @ FloridaFinal 21–40
Model
pred Florida 4.8 · actual Florida 19
winner Florida ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Florida +1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.2 · mkt 20.5 · closer
Northwestern @ IllinoisFinal 13–20
Model
pred Illinois 4.8 · actual Illinois 7
winner Illinois ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Northwestern +7.0Push
margin err: model 2.2 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
Virginia Tech @ VirginiaFinal 7–27
Model
pred Virginia 4.2 · actual Virginia 20
winner Virginia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Virginia Tech +8.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 15.8 · mkt 11.5 · mkt closer
Oregon State @ Washington StateFinal 8–32
Model
pred Washington State 4.0 · actual Washington State 24
winner Washington State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State +14.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.0 · mkt 10.0 · mkt closer
Cincinnati @ TCUFinal 23–45
Model
pred TCU 3.6 · actual TCU 22
winner TCU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned TCU -3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 18.4 · mkt 19.0 · closer
UAB @ TulsaFinal 31–24
Model
pred Tulsa 3.2 · actual UAB 7
winner Tulsa ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UAB +9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.2 · mkt 16.5 · closer
Wake Forest @ DukeFinal 32–49
Model
pred Duke 3.0 · actual Duke 17
winner Duke ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Duke -2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.0 · mkt 14.5 · closer
Texas A&M @ TexasFinal 17–27
Model
pred Texas 2.7 · actual Texas 10
winner Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.3 · mkt 12.5 · closer
Arkansas State @ App StateFinal 30–29
Model
pred App State 2.7 · actual Arkansas State 1
winner App State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned App State +1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.7 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
LSU @ OklahomaFinal 13–17
Model
pred Oklahoma 2.6 · actual Oklahoma 4
winner Oklahoma ✓
ATS vs close
leaned LSU +11.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.4 · mkt 7.5 · closer
Middle Tennessee @ New Mexico StateFinal 31–24
Model
pred New Mexico State 2.6 · actual Middle Tennessee 7
winner New Mexico State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Middle Tennessee +3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.6 · mkt 10.5 · closer
Maryland @ Michigan StateFinal 28–38
Model
pred Michigan State 2.5 · actual Michigan State 10
winner Michigan State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Maryland +4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.5 · mkt 6.0 · mkt closer
Houston @ BaylorFinal 31–24
Model
pred Baylor 1.5 · actual Houston 7
winner Baylor ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Houston +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.5 · mkt 9.5 · closer
Arizona @ Arizona StateFinal 23–7
Model
pred Arizona State 1.2 · actual Arizona 16
winner Arizona State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Arizona State +2.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.2 · mkt 14.0 · mkt closer
Army @ UTSAFinal 27–24
Model
pred UTSA 0.6 · actual Army 3
winner UTSA ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Army +8.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.6 · mkt 11.5 · closer
Troy @ Southern MissFinal 28–18
Model
pred Southern Miss 0.6 · actual Troy 10
winner Southern Miss ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Troy +7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.6 · mkt 17.0 · closer
Fresno State @ San José StateFinal 41–14
Model
pred San José State 0.5 · actual Fresno State 27
winner San José State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned San José State +3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 27.5 · mkt 23.5 · mkt closer
Vanderbilt @ TennesseeFinal 45–24
Model
pred Vanderbilt 0.2 · actual Vanderbilt 21
winner Vanderbilt ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Vanderbilt +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 20.8 · mkt 23.5 · closer
Florida International @ Sam HoustonFinal 56–16
Model
pred Florida International 0.4 · actual Florida International 40
winner Florida International ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Sam Houston +10.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 39.6 · mkt 29.5 · mkt closer
Western Michigan @ Eastern MichiganFinal 31–21
Model
pred Western Michigan 1.0 · actual Western Michigan 10
winner Western Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Eastern Michigan +10.0Push
margin err: model 9.0 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
San Diego State @ New MexicoFinal 17–23
Model
pred San Diego State 2.2 · actual New Mexico 6
winner San Diego State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned San Diego State -1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.2 · mkt 7.5 · mkt closer
Boston College @ SyracuseFinal 34–12
Model
pred Boston College 2.4 · actual Boston College 22
winner Boston College ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Syracuse +3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.6 · mkt 19.0 · mkt closer
Clemson @ South CarolinaFinal 28–14
Model
pred Clemson 3.6 · actual Clemson 14
winner Clemson ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Clemson +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.4 · mkt 16.5 · closer
Louisiana Tech @ Missouri StateFinal 42–30
Model
pred Louisiana Tech 3.6 · actual Louisiana Tech 12
winner Louisiana Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana Tech +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.4 · mkt 14.5 · closer
Missouri @ ArkansasFinal 31–17
Model
pred Missouri 4.0 · actual Missouri 14
winner Missouri ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arkansas +4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.0 · mkt 9.5 · mkt closer
Ohio @ BuffaloFinal 31–26
Model
pred Ohio 5.3 · actual Ohio 5
winner Ohio ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Buffalo +7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.3 · mkt 2.0 · closer
Iowa @ NebraskaFinal 40–16
Model
pred Iowa 6.1 · actual Iowa 24
winner Iowa ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa -5.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 17.9 · mkt 18.5 · closer
Utah @ KansasFinal 31–21
Model
pred Utah 6.5 · actual Utah 10
winner Utah ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kansas +10.0Push
margin err: model 3.5 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
Boise State @ Utah StateFinal 25–24
Model
pred Boise State 6.8 · actual Boise State 1
winner Boise State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Boise State -1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 5.8 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Bowling Green @ MassachusettsFinal 45–14
Model
pred Bowling Green 7.0 · actual Bowling Green 31
winner Bowling Green ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Massachusetts +14.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.0 · mkt 17.0 · mkt closer
James Madison @ Coastal CarolinaFinal 59–10
Model
pred James Madison 7.0 · actual James Madison 49
winner James Madison ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Coastal Carolina +24.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 42.0 · mkt 25.0 · mkt closer
UNLV @ NevadaFinal 42–17
Model
pred UNLV 7.5 · actual UNLV 25
winner UNLV ✓
ATS vs close
model matched the close — no lean
margin err: model 17.5 · mkt 17.5 · tie
Miami @ PittsburghFinal 38–7
Model
pred Miami 7.9 · actual Miami 31
winner Miami ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Miami -6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 23.1 · mkt 24.5 · closer
East Carolina @ Florida AtlanticFinal 42–3
Model
pred East Carolina 9.5 · actual East Carolina 39
winner East Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned East Carolina -7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 29.5 · mkt 32.0 · closer
Oregon @ WashingtonFinal 26–14
Model
pred Oregon 12.5 · actual Oregon 12
winner Oregon ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon -6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.5 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Penn State @ RutgersFinal 40–36
Model
pred Penn State 13.1 · actual Penn State 4
winner Penn State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Rutgers +14.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.1 · mkt 10.0 · closer
Ohio State @ MichiganFinal 27–9
Model
pred Ohio State 13.3 · actual Ohio State 18
winner Ohio State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ohio State -9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.7 · mkt 8.5 · closer
Ole Miss @ Mississippi StateFinal 38–19
Model
pred Ole Miss 13.8 · actual Ole Miss 19
winner Ole Miss ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ole Miss -7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.2 · mkt 11.5 · closer
Georgia @ Georgia TechFinal 16–9
Model
pred Georgia 14.2 · actual Georgia 7
winner Georgia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia Tech +16.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.2 · mkt 9.5 · closer
SMU @ CaliforniaFinal 35–38
Model
pred SMU 15.3 · actual California 3
winner SMU ✗
ATS vs close
leaned SMU -13.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.3 · mkt 16.5 · mkt closer
Toledo @ Central MichiganFinal 21–3
Model
pred Toledo 16.0 · actual Toledo 18
winner Toledo ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Toledo -11.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.0 · mkt 6.5 · closer
Texas Tech @ West VirginiaFinal 49–0
Model
pred Texas Tech 16.0 · actual Texas Tech 49
winner Texas Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned West Virginia +24.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 33.0 · mkt 24.5 · mkt closer
Alabama @ AuburnFinal 27–20
Model
pred Alabama 16.3 · actual Alabama 7
winner Alabama ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Alabama -7.0Push
margin err: model 9.3 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
Indiana @ PurdueFinal 56–3
Model
pred Indiana 17.7 · actual Indiana 53
winner Indiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Purdue +28.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 35.3 · mkt 24.5 · mkt closer
Iowa State @ Oklahoma StateFinal 20–13
Model
pred Iowa State 20.4 · actual Iowa State 7
winner Iowa State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa State -14.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.4 · mkt 7.0 · mkt closer
Notre Dame @ StanfordFinal 49–20
Model
pred Notre Dame 23.7 · actual Notre Dame 29
winner Notre Dame ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Stanford +32.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.3 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.