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2025 · Week 13 · FBS · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 13 backtest · FBS · 60 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
44–1673%
ATS vs close
27–31 · 1P47%
Model margin MAE
13.7
Market margin MAE
12.3
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Charlotte @ GeorgiaFinal 3–35
Model
pred Georgia 42.4 · actual Georgia 32
winner Georgia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Charlotte +42.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.4 · mkt 10.5 · closer
UL Monroe @ Texas StateFinal 14–31
Model
pred Texas State 26.8 · actual Texas State 17
winner Texas State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas State -20.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 9.8 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
Syracuse @ Notre DameFinal 7–70
Model
pred Notre Dame 26.5 · actual Notre Dame 63
winner Notre Dame ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Syracuse +36.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 36.5 · mkt 26.5 · mkt closer
Massachusetts @ OhioFinal 14–42
Model
pred Ohio 26.2 · actual Ohio 28
winner Ohio ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Massachusetts +33.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.8 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Ball State @ ToledoFinal 9–38
Model
pred Toledo 24.2 · actual Toledo 29
winner Toledo ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ball State +29.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.8 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Western Kentucky @ LSUFinal 10–13
Model
pred LSU 22.1 · actual LSU 3
winner LSU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Western Kentucky +24.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 19.1 · mkt 21.5 · closer
Rutgers @ Ohio StateFinal 9–42
Model
pred Ohio State 21.2 · actual Ohio State 33
winner Ohio State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Rutgers +28.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.8 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
Delaware @ Wake ForestFinal 14–52
Model
pred Wake Forest 17.8 · actual Wake Forest 38
winner Wake Forest ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Wake Forest -17.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 20.2 · mkt 20.5 · closer
Coastal Carolina @ South CarolinaFinal 7–51
Model
pred South Carolina 17.6 · actual South Carolina 44
winner South Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Coastal Carolina +24.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 26.4 · mkt 20.0 · mkt closer
Oklahoma State @ UCFFinal 14–17
Model
pred UCF 16.7 · actual UCF 3
winner UCF ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UCF -13.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.7 · mkt 10.5 · mkt closer
Michigan State @ IowaFinal 17–20
Model
pred Iowa 16.6 · actual Iowa 3
winner Iowa ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Michigan State +17.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 13.6 · mkt 14.5 · closer
Missouri State @ Kennesaw StateFinal 34–41
Model
pred Kennesaw State 16.1 · actual Kennesaw State 7
winner Kennesaw State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kennesaw State -6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.1 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Washington State @ James MadisonFinal 20–24
Model
pred James Madison 16.0 · actual James Madison 4
winner James Madison ✓
ATS vs close
leaned James Madison -15.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.0 · mkt 11.5 · mkt closer
Kentucky @ VanderbiltFinal 17–45
Model
pred Vanderbilt 15.8 · actual Vanderbilt 28
winner Vanderbilt ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Vanderbilt -7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 12.2 · mkt 21.0 · closer
Tulsa @ ArmyFinal 26–25
Model
pred Army 15.6 · actual Tulsa 1
winner Army ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Army -10.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.6 · mkt 11.0 · mkt closer
Arkansas @ TexasFinal 37–52
Model
pred Texas 15.3 · actual Texas 15
winner Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas -8.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.3 · mkt 6.5 · closer
Georgia State @ TroyFinal 19–31
Model
pred Troy 14.7 · actual Troy 12
winner Troy ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Troy -9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.7 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Colorado State @ Boise StateFinal 21–49
Model
pred Boise State 13.2 · actual Boise State 28
winner Boise State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado State +17.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.8 · mkt 10.5 · mkt closer
San José State @ San Diego StateFinal 3–25
Model
pred San Diego State 11.8 · actual San Diego State 22
winner San Diego State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San Diego State -10.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.2 · mkt 12.0 · closer
Hawai'i @ UNLVFinal 10–38
Model
pred UNLV 9.5 · actual UNLV 28
winner UNLV ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UNLV -2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 18.5 · mkt 25.5 · closer
Kansas State @ UtahFinal 47–51
Model
pred Utah 7.4 · actual Utah 4
winner Utah ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kansas State +17.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.4 · mkt 13.5 · closer
Nevada @ WyomingFinal 13–7
Model
pred Wyoming 6.7 · actual Nevada 6
winner Wyoming ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Wyoming -6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.7 · mkt 12.5 · mkt closer
Sam Houston @ Middle TennesseeFinal 17–31
Model
pred Middle Tennessee 6.7 · actual Middle Tennessee 14
winner Middle Tennessee ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Middle Tennessee -6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.3 · mkt 7.5 · closer
USC @ OregonFinal 27–42
Model
pred Oregon 6.6 · actual Oregon 15
winner Oregon ✓
ATS vs close
leaned USC +11.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.4 · mkt 4.0 · mkt closer
Missouri @ OklahomaFinal 6–17
Model
pred Oklahoma 6.6 · actual Oklahoma 11
winner Oklahoma ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma -4.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.4 · mkt 6.5 · closer
New Mexico @ Air ForceFinal 20–3
Model
pred Air Force 6.2 · actual New Mexico 17
winner Air Force ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Air Force +3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 23.2 · mkt 13.5 · mkt closer
Akron @ Bowling GreenFinal 19–16
Model
pred Bowling Green 5.7 · actual Akron 3
winner Bowling Green ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Bowling Green -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.7 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
Kansas @ Iowa StateFinal 14–38
Model
pred Iowa State 5.7 · actual Iowa State 24
winner Iowa State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa State -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 18.3 · mkt 20.5 · closer
Minnesota @ NorthwesternFinal 35–38
Model
pred Northwestern 5.0 · actual Northwestern 3
winner Northwestern ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Northwestern -4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 2.0 · mkt 1.0 · mkt closer
New Mexico State @ UTEPFinal 34–31
Model
pred UTEP 4.9 · actual New Mexico State 3
winner UTEP ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UTEP -4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.9 · mkt 7.0 · mkt closer
Nebraska @ Penn StateFinal 10–37
Model
pred Penn State 4.8 · actual Penn State 27
winner Penn State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Nebraska +7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 22.2 · mkt 20.0 · mkt closer
Pittsburgh @ Georgia TechFinal 42–28
Model
pred Georgia Tech 4.1 · actual Pittsburgh 14
winner Georgia Tech ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia Tech -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.1 · mkt 16.5 · mkt closer
Louisville @ SMUFinal 6–38
Model
pred SMU 3.1 · actual SMU 32
winner SMU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Louisville +4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 28.9 · mkt 28.0 · mkt closer
Utah State @ Fresno StateFinal 28–17
Model
pred Fresno State 2.7 · actual Utah State 11
winner Fresno State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Fresno State -1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.7 · mkt 12.5 · mkt closer
East Carolina @ UTSAFinal 24–58
Model
pred UTSA 2.2 · actual UTSA 34
winner UTSA ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UTSA +2.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 31.8 · mkt 36.0 · closer
Tennessee @ FloridaFinal 31–11
Model
pred Florida 1.3 · actual Tennessee 20
winner Florida ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Florida +3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 21.3 · mkt 16.5 · mkt closer
Miami (OH) @ BuffaloFinal 37–20
Model
pred Buffalo 0.2 · actual Miami (OH) 17
winner Buffalo ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Buffalo +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.2 · mkt 14.5 · mkt closer
Florida State @ NC StateFinal 11–21
Model
pred NC State 0.2 · actual NC State 10
winner NC State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned NC State +6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.8 · mkt 16.5 · closer
Old Dominion @ Georgia SouthernFinal 45–10
Model
pred Old Dominion 0.6 · actual Old Dominion 35
winner Old Dominion ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia Southern +10.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 34.4 · mkt 25.0 · mkt closer
Baylor @ ArizonaFinal 17–41
Model
pred Baylor 0.8 · actual Arizona 24
winner Baylor ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Baylor +6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.8 · mkt 17.5 · mkt closer
Southern Miss @ South AlabamaFinal 35–42
Model
pred Southern Miss 1.2 · actual South Alabama 7
winner Southern Miss ✗
ATS vs close
leaned South Alabama +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.2 · mkt 9.5 · closer
Liberty @ Louisiana TechFinal 28–34
Model
pred Liberty 1.2 · actual Louisiana Tech 6
winner Liberty ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana Tech +1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.2 · mkt 7.5 · closer
Louisiana @ Arkansas StateFinal 34–30
Model
pred Louisiana 1.3 · actual Louisiana 4
winner Louisiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.7 · mkt 6.5 · closer
TCU @ HoustonFinal 17–14
Model
pred TCU 2.4 · actual TCU 3
winner TCU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned TCU -1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.6 · mkt 1.5 · closer
Illinois @ WisconsinFinal 10–27
Model
pred Illinois 2.5 · actual Wisconsin 17
winner Illinois ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Wisconsin +8.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 19.5 · mkt 25.5 · closer
Duke @ North CarolinaFinal 32–25
Model
pred Duke 3.1 · actual Duke 7
winner Duke ✓
ATS vs close
leaned North Carolina +7.0Push
margin err: model 3.9 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
Western Michigan @ Northern IllinoisFinal 35–19
Model
pred Western Michigan 3.5 · actual Western Michigan 16
winner Western Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Northern Illinois +7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.5 · mkt 9.0 · mkt closer
North Texas @ RiceFinal 56–24
Model
pred North Texas 4.3 · actual North Texas 32
winner North Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Rice +18.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 27.7 · mkt 13.5 · mkt closer
BYU @ CincinnatiFinal 26–14
Model
pred BYU 5.0 · actual BYU 12
winner BYU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned BYU -2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.0 · mkt 9.5 · closer
Arizona State @ ColoradoFinal 42–17
Model
pred Arizona State 5.7 · actual Arizona State 25
winner Arizona State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado +7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.3 · mkt 18.0 · mkt closer
Marshall @ App StateFinal 24–26
Model
pred Marshall 6.5 · actual App State 2
winner Marshall ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Marshall -4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.5 · mkt 6.0 · mkt closer
Miami @ Virginia TechFinal 34–17
Model
pred Miami 7.0 · actual Miami 17
winner Miami ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Virginia Tech +17.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.0 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Jacksonville State @ Florida InternationalFinal 21–27
Model
pred Jacksonville State 7.3 · actual Florida International 6
winner Jacksonville State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Jacksonville State +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.3 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
California @ StanfordFinal 10–31
Model
pred California 8.0 · actual Stanford 21
winner California ✗
ATS vs close
leaned California -4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 29.0 · mkt 25.5 · mkt closer
UConn @ Florida AtlanticFinal 48–45
Model
pred UConn 8.2 · actual UConn 3
winner UConn ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UConn -6.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 5.2 · mkt 3.0 · mkt closer
Washington @ UCLAFinal 48–14
Model
pred Washington 9.5 · actual Washington 34
winner Washington ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UCLA +10.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.5 · mkt 23.5 · mkt closer
Tulane @ TempleFinal 37–13
Model
pred Tulane 12.9 · actual Tulane 24
winner Tulane ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Tulane -7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 11.1 · mkt 16.5 · closer
South Florida @ UABFinal 48–18
Model
pred South Florida 13.7 · actual South Florida 30
winner South Florida ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UAB +21.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.3 · mkt 8.5 · mkt closer
Michigan @ MarylandFinal 45–20
Model
pred Michigan 14.0 · actual Michigan 25
winner Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
model matched the close — no lean
margin err: model 11.0 · mkt 11.0 · tie
Central Michigan @ Kent StateFinal 28–16
Model
pred Central Michigan 14.7 · actual Central Michigan 12
winner Central Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Central Michigan -7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.7 · mkt 4.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.