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2025 · Week 12 · FBS · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 12 backtest · FBS · 58 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
47–1181%
ATS vs close
29–2950%
Model margin MAE
13.0
Market margin MAE
12.0
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
New Mexico State @ TennesseeFinal 9–42
Model
pred Tennessee 31.3 · actual Tennessee 33
winner Tennessee ✓
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico State +41.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.7 · mkt 8.5 · closer
UCLA @ Ohio StateFinal 10–48
Model
pred Ohio State 26.4 · actual Ohio State 38
winner Ohio State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UCLA +33.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.6 · mkt 5.0 · mkt closer
App State @ James MadisonFinal 10–58
Model
pred James Madison 22.3 · actual James Madison 48
winner James Madison ✓
ATS vs close
leaned James Madison -21.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 25.7 · mkt 27.0 · closer
Minnesota @ OregonFinal 13–42
Model
pred Oregon 19.0 · actual Oregon 29
winner Oregon ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Minnesota +26.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.0 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
UCF @ Texas TechFinal 9–48
Model
pred Texas Tech 17.6 · actual Texas Tech 39
winner Texas Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UCF +24.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 21.4 · mkt 14.5 · mkt closer
South Carolina @ Texas A&MFinal 30–31
Model
pred Texas A&M 15.9 · actual Texas A&M 1
winner Texas A&M ✓
ATS vs close
leaned South Carolina +16.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.9 · mkt 15.5 · closer
Utah State @ UNLVFinal 26–29
Model
pred UNLV 14.1 · actual UNLV 3
winner UNLV ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UNLV -4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.1 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Kent State @ AkronFinal 42–35
Model
pred Akron 13.6 · actual Kent State 7
winner Akron ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Akron -7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.6 · mkt 14.5 · mkt closer
NC State @ MiamiFinal 7–41
Model
pred Miami 13.5 · actual Miami 34
winner Miami ✓
ATS vs close
leaned NC State +16.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.5 · mkt 17.5 · mkt closer
Air Force @ UConnFinal 16–26
Model
pred UConn 13.2 · actual UConn 10
winner UConn ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UConn -7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.2 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Florida Atlantic @ TulaneFinal 24–35
Model
pred Tulane 12.0 · actual Tulane 11
winner Tulane ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Florida Atlantic +16.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.0 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Wisconsin @ IndianaFinal 7–31
Model
pred Indiana 11.6 · actual Indiana 24
winner Indiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Wisconsin +28.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 12.4 · mkt 4.0 · mkt closer
Maryland @ IllinoisFinal 6–24
Model
pred Illinois 11.6 · actual Illinois 18
winner Illinois ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Maryland +16.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 6.4 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
West Virginia @ Arizona StateFinal 23–25
Model
pred Arizona State 10.8 · actual Arizona State 2
winner Arizona State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arizona State -10.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.8 · mkt 8.0 · mkt closer
Kennesaw State @ Jacksonville StateFinal 26–35
Model
pred Jacksonville State 9.8 · actual Jacksonville State 9
winner Jacksonville State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Jacksonville State +3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.8 · mkt 12.5 · closer
UTEP @ Missouri StateFinal 24–38
Model
pred Missouri State 9.7 · actual Missouri State 14
winner Missouri State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Missouri State -6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.3 · mkt 7.5 · closer
Middle Tennessee @ Western KentuckyFinal 26–42
Model
pred Western Kentucky 9.5 · actual Western Kentucky 16
winner Western Kentucky ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Middle Tennessee +13.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 6.5 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Oklahoma @ AlabamaFinal 23–21
Model
pred Alabama 9.5 · actual Oklahoma 2
winner Alabama ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Alabama -6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.5 · mkt 8.5 · mkt closer
Purdue @ WashingtonFinal 13–49
Model
pred Washington 8.9 · actual Washington 36
winner Washington ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Purdue +14.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 27.1 · mkt 21.5 · mkt closer
Troy @ Old DominionFinal 0–33
Model
pred Old Dominion 8.6 · actual Old Dominion 33
winner Old Dominion ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Troy +9.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.4 · mkt 23.5 · mkt closer
Arkansas @ LSUFinal 22–23
Model
pred LSU 8.1 · actual LSU 1
winner LSU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned LSU -4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.1 · mkt 3.0 · mkt closer
Florida @ Ole MissFinal 24–34
Model
pred Ole Miss 7.6 · actual Ole Miss 10
winner Ole Miss ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Florida +10.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.4 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Mississippi State @ MissouriFinal 27–49
Model
pred Missouri 7.3 · actual Missouri 22
winner Missouri ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Mississippi State +7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.7 · mkt 14.5 · mkt closer
Wyoming @ Fresno StateFinal 3–24
Model
pred Fresno State 5.8 · actual Fresno State 21
winner Fresno State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Fresno State -3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 15.2 · mkt 18.0 · closer
Boise State @ San Diego StateFinal 7–17
Model
pred San Diego State 5.6 · actual San Diego State 10
winner San Diego State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San Diego State -2.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.4 · mkt 8.0 · closer
Iowa @ USCFinal 21–26
Model
pred USC 5.1 · actual USC 5
winner USC ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa +6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.1 · mkt 1.5 · closer
Memphis @ East CarolinaFinal 27–31
Model
pred East Carolina 4.9 · actual East Carolina 4
winner East Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned East Carolina -3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.9 · mkt 1.0 · closer
Ohio @ Western MichiganFinal 13–17
Model
pred Western Michigan 4.2 · actual Western Michigan 4
winner Western Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Western Michigan -1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.2 · mkt 2.5 · closer
North Carolina @ Wake ForestFinal 12–28
Model
pred Wake Forest 4.2 · actual Wake Forest 16
winner Wake Forest ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Wake Forest -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 11.8 · mkt 12.5 · closer
Arizona @ CincinnatiFinal 30–24
Model
pred Cincinnati 3.3 · actual Arizona 6
winner Cincinnati ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Arizona +6.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.3 · mkt 12.0 · closer
Colorado State @ New MexicoFinal 17–20
Model
pred New Mexico 3.0 · actual New Mexico 3
winner New Mexico ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado State +15.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.0 · mkt 12.5 · closer
Texas State @ Southern MissFinal 41–14
Model
pred Southern Miss 2.3 · actual Texas State 27
winner Southern Miss ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Texas State +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 29.3 · mkt 30.0 · closer
Texas @ GeorgiaFinal 10–35
Model
pred Georgia 2.0 · actual Georgia 25
winner Georgia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas +3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 23.0 · mkt 21.5 · mkt closer
TCU @ BYUFinal 13–44
Model
pred BYU 1.7 · actual BYU 31
winner BYU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned TCU +3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 29.3 · mkt 28.0 · mkt closer
South Florida @ NavyFinal 38–41
Model
pred Navy 1.0 · actual Navy 3
winner Navy ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Navy +8.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.0 · mkt 11.5 · closer
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia SouthernFinal 40–45
Model
pred Georgia Southern 0.7 · actual Georgia Southern 5
winner Georgia Southern ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Coastal Carolina +3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 4.3 · mkt 2.0 · mkt closer
Oregon State @ TulsaFinal 14–31
Model
pred Tulsa 0.5 · actual Tulsa 17
winner Tulsa ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State +1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.5 · mkt 15.5 · mkt closer
Virginia @ DukeFinal 34–17
Model
pred Duke 0.1 · actual Virginia 17
winner Duke ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Virginia +5.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 17.1 · mkt 22.5 · closer
North Texas @ UABFinal 53–24
Model
pred North Texas 1.3 · actual North Texas 29
winner North Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UAB +17.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 27.7 · mkt 11.5 · mkt closer
Eastern Michigan @ Ball StateFinal 24–9
Model
pred Eastern Michigan 1.8 · actual Eastern Michigan 15
winner Eastern Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ball State +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.2 · mkt 12.5 · mkt closer
Louisiana Tech @ Washington StateFinal 3–28
Model
pred Louisiana Tech 2.2 · actual Washington State 25
winner Louisiana Tech ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana Tech +10.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 27.2 · mkt 15.0 · mkt closer
Toledo @ Miami (OH)Final 24–3
Model
pred Toledo 2.8 · actual Toledo 21
winner Toledo ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Miami (OH) +5.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.2 · mkt 15.5 · mkt closer
Delaware @ Sam HoustonFinal 23–26
Model
pred Delaware 3.1 · actual Sam Houston 3
winner Delaware ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Sam Houston +11.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.1 · mkt 14.5 · closer
Utah @ BaylorFinal 55–28
Model
pred Utah 3.8 · actual Utah 27
winner Utah ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Baylor +9.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 23.2 · mkt 17.5 · mkt closer
Virginia Tech @ Florida StateFinal 14–34
Model
pred Virginia Tech 4.5 · actual Florida State 20
winner Virginia Tech ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Virginia Tech +14.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.5 · mkt 6.0 · mkt closer
San José State @ NevadaFinal 10–55
Model
pred San José State 4.5 · actual Nevada 45
winner San José State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Nevada +9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 49.5 · mkt 54.5 · closer
Clemson @ LouisvilleFinal 20–19
Model
pred Clemson 5.1 · actual Clemson 1
winner Clemson ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Clemson +1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.1 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Northern Illinois @ MassachusettsFinal 45–3
Model
pred Northern Illinois 7.7 · actual Northern Illinois 42
winner Northern Illinois ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Massachusetts +9.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 34.3 · mkt 32.5 · mkt closer
Buffalo @ Central MichiganFinal 19–38
Model
pred Buffalo 8.0 · actual Central Michigan 19
winner Buffalo ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Buffalo +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 27.0 · mkt 16.5 · mkt closer
Notre Dame @ PittsburghFinal 37–15
Model
pred Notre Dame 8.3 · actual Notre Dame 22
winner Notre Dame ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Pittsburgh +12.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.7 · mkt 9.5 · mkt closer
Michigan @ NorthwesternFinal 24–22
Model
pred Michigan 8.4 · actual Michigan 2
winner Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Northwestern +10.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.4 · mkt 8.0 · closer
South Alabama @ UL MonroeFinal 26–14
Model
pred South Alabama 9.2 · actual South Alabama 12
winner South Alabama ✓
ATS vs close
leaned South Alabama -4.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.8 · mkt 8.0 · closer
Liberty @ Florida InternationalFinal 27–34
Model
pred Liberty 11.2 · actual Florida International 7
winner Liberty ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Liberty -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.2 · mkt 9.5 · mkt closer
Georgia Tech @ Boston CollegeFinal 36–34
Model
pred Georgia Tech 11.5 · actual Georgia Tech 2
winner Georgia Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Boston College +16.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.5 · mkt 14.5 · closer
Marshall @ Georgia StateFinal 30–18
Model
pred Marshall 12.9 · actual Marshall 12
winner Marshall ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Marshall -9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.9 · mkt 2.5 · closer
UTSA @ CharlotteFinal 28–7
Model
pred UTSA 13.8 · actual UTSA 21
winner UTSA ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Charlotte +17.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.2 · mkt 4.0 · mkt closer
Penn State @ Michigan StateFinal 28–10
Model
pred Penn State 16.6 · actual Penn State 18
winner Penn State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Penn State -7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.4 · mkt 11.0 · closer
Kansas State @ Oklahoma StateFinal 14–6
Model
pred Kansas State 17.9 · actual Kansas State 8
winner Kansas State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma State +19.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.9 · mkt 11.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.