CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 11 · FBS · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 11 backtest · FBS · 51 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
34–1767%
ATS vs close
28–2256%
Model margin MAE
11.9
Market margin MAE
10.9
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Navy @ Notre DameFinal 10–49
Model
pred Notre Dame 30.4 · actual Notre Dame 39
winner Notre Dame ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Navy +30.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.6 · mkt 8.5 · mkt closer
Missouri State @ LibertyFinal 21–17
Model
pred Liberty 20.9 · actual Missouri State 4
winner Liberty ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Liberty -7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.9 · mkt 11.5 · mkt closer
Charlotte @ East CarolinaFinal 22–48
Model
pred East Carolina 20.2 · actual East Carolina 26
winner East Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Charlotte +28.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.8 · mkt 2.0 · mkt closer
Syracuse @ MiamiFinal 10–38
Model
pred Miami 18.3 · actual Miami 28
winner Miami ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Syracuse +28.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.7 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Temple @ ArmyFinal 13–14
Model
pred Army 14.8 · actual Army 1
winner Army ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Army -7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.8 · mkt 6.0 · mkt closer
Georgia State @ Coastal CarolinaFinal 27–40
Model
pred Coastal Carolina 14.0 · actual Coastal Carolina 13
winner Coastal Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Coastal Carolina -7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.0 · mkt 6.0 · closer
LSU @ AlabamaFinal 9–20
Model
pred Alabama 14.0 · actual Alabama 11
winner Alabama ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Alabama -10.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.0 · mkt 1.0 · mkt closer
Florida International @ Middle TennesseeFinal 56–30
Model
pred Middle Tennessee 13.8 · actual Florida International 26
winner Middle Tennessee ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Middle Tennessee -1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 39.8 · mkt 27.5 · mkt closer
California @ LouisvilleFinal 29–26
Model
pred Louisville 12.6 · actual California 3
winner Louisville ✗
ATS vs close
leaned California +18.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 15.6 · mkt 21.5 · closer
Auburn @ VanderbiltFinal 38–45
Model
pred Vanderbilt 12.5 · actual Vanderbilt 7
winner Vanderbilt ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Vanderbilt -6.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.5 · mkt 1.0 · mkt closer
Northern Illinois @ ToledoFinal 3–42
Model
pred Toledo 11.4 · actual Toledo 39
winner Toledo ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Northern Illinois +15.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 27.6 · mkt 23.5 · mkt closer
Northwestern @ USCFinal 17–38
Model
pred USC 11.3 · actual USC 21
winner USC ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Northwestern +14.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 9.7 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
Wake Forest @ VirginiaFinal 16–9
Model
pred Virginia 9.6 · actual Wake Forest 7
winner Virginia ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Virginia -7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.6 · mkt 14.0 · mkt closer
Tulane @ MemphisFinal 38–32
Model
pred Memphis 8.7 · actual Tulane 6
winner Memphis ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Memphis -3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.7 · mkt 9.0 · mkt closer
Florida State @ ClemsonFinal 10–24
Model
pred Clemson 8.6 · actual Clemson 14
winner Clemson ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Clemson -1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.4 · mkt 12.5 · closer
Kent State @ Ball StateFinal 13–17
Model
pred Ball State 8.0 · actual Ball State 4
winner Ball State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ball State -3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.0 · mkt 1.0 · mkt closer
Iowa State @ TCUFinal 20–17
Model
pred TCU 7.6 · actual Iowa State 3
winner TCU ✗
ATS vs close
leaned TCU -7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.6 · mkt 10.5 · mkt closer
Duke @ UConnFinal 34–37
Model
pred UConn 7.5 · actual UConn 3
winner UConn ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UConn +7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.5 · mkt 10.5 · closer
UTSA @ South FloridaFinal 23–55
Model
pred South Florida 7.3 · actual South Florida 32
winner South Florida ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UTSA +14.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.7 · mkt 18.0 · mkt closer
Sam Houston @ Oregon StateFinal 21–17
Model
pred Oregon State 6.6 · actual Sam Houston 4
winner Oregon State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Sam Houston +21.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.6 · mkt 25.0 · closer
Miami (OH) @ OhioFinal 20–24
Model
pred Ohio 6.3 · actual Ohio 4
winner Ohio ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ohio -2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.3 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Nevada @ Utah StateFinal 14–51
Model
pred Utah State 6.1 · actual Utah State 37
winner Utah State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Nevada +10.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 30.9 · mkt 27.0 · mkt closer
Stanford @ North CarolinaFinal 15–20
Model
pred North Carolina 5.5 · actual North Carolina 5
winner North Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Stanford +8.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.5 · mkt 3.5 · closer
Air Force @ San José StateFinal 26–16
Model
pred San José State 5.4 · actual Air Force 10
winner San José State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Air Force +6.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 15.4 · mkt 16.0 · closer
Massachusetts @ AkronFinal 10–44
Model
pred Akron 5.3 · actual Akron 34
winner Akron ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Massachusetts +12.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 28.7 · mkt 21.5 · mkt closer
Georgia Southern @ App StateFinal 25–23
Model
pred App State 5.1 · actual Georgia Southern 2
winner App State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned App State -4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.1 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
UAB @ RiceFinal 17–24
Model
pred Rice 4.9 · actual Rice 7
winner Rice ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Rice -1.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.1 · mkt 6.0 · closer
Colorado @ West VirginiaFinal 22–29
Model
pred West Virginia 3.7 · actual West Virginia 7
winner West Virginia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado +6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 3.3 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Tulsa @ Florida AtlanticFinal 21–40
Model
pred Florida Atlantic 3.0 · actual Florida Atlantic 19
winner Florida Atlantic ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Tulsa +4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.0 · mkt 14.5 · mkt closer
Maryland @ RutgersFinal 20–35
Model
pred Rutgers 3.0 · actual Rutgers 15
winner Rutgers ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Rutgers -1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 12.0 · mkt 13.5 · closer
Kansas @ ArizonaFinal 20–24
Model
pred Arizona 2.9 · actual Arizona 4
winner Arizona ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kansas +5.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.1 · mkt 1.5 · closer
James Madison @ MarshallFinal 35–23
Model
pred Marshall 1.5 · actual James Madison 12
winner Marshall ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Marshall +13.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 13.5 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Indiana @ Penn StateFinal 27–24
Model
pred Penn State 1.5 · actual Indiana 3
winner Penn State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Penn State +14.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.5 · mkt 11.0 · closer
BYU @ Texas TechFinal 7–29
Model
pred Texas Tech 1.1 · actual Texas Tech 22
winner Texas Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned BYU +13.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.9 · mkt 8.5 · mkt closer
Bowling Green @ Eastern MichiganFinal 21–27
Model
pred Bowling Green 0.1 · actual Eastern Michigan 6
winner Bowling Green ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Bowling Green +3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 6.1 · mkt 3.0 · mkt closer
Southern Miss @ Arkansas StateFinal 27–21
Model
pred Southern Miss 0.9 · actual Southern Miss 6
winner Southern Miss ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arkansas State +6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.1 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Houston @ UCFFinal 30–27
Model
pred Houston 1.7 · actual Houston 3
winner Houston ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Houston +1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.3 · mkt 4.5 · closer
San Diego State @ Hawai'iFinal 6–38
Model
pred San Diego State 2.5 · actual Hawai'i 32
winner San Diego State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Hawai'i +6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 34.5 · mkt 38.5 · closer
Kennesaw State @ New Mexico StateFinal 24–21
Model
pred Kennesaw State 3.1 · actual Kennesaw State 3
winner Kennesaw State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico State +11.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.1 · mkt 8.5 · closer
Florida @ KentuckyFinal 7–38
Model
pred Florida 4.5 · actual Kentucky 31
winner Florida ✗
ATS vs close
model matched the close — no lean
margin err: model 35.5 · mkt 35.5 · tie
Texas A&M @ MissouriFinal 38–17
Model
pred Texas A&M 5.0 · actual Texas A&M 21
winner Texas A&M ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Missouri +7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.0 · mkt 14.0 · mkt closer
Louisiana Tech @ DelawareFinal 24–25
Model
pred Louisiana Tech 5.1 · actual Delaware 1
winner Louisiana Tech ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Delaware +5.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.1 · mkt 6.5 · closer
UNLV @ Colorado StateFinal 42–10
Model
pred UNLV 5.1 · actual UNLV 32
winner UNLV ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado State +5.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 26.9 · mkt 26.5 · mkt closer
Oregon @ IowaFinal 18–16
Model
pred Oregon 5.5 · actual Oregon 2
winner Oregon ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon -4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 3.5 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Jacksonville State @ UTEPFinal 30–27
Model
pred Jacksonville State 5.8 · actual Jacksonville State 3
winner Jacksonville State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Jacksonville State -1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.8 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Washington @ WisconsinFinal 10–13
Model
pred Washington 6.9 · actual Wisconsin 3
winner Washington ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Wisconsin +10.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.9 · mkt 13.5 · closer
Texas State @ LouisianaFinal 39–42
Model
pred Texas State 8.1 · actual Louisiana 3
winner Texas State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Texas State -3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.1 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
Nebraska @ UCLAFinal 28–21
Model
pred Nebraska 11.7 · actual Nebraska 7
winner Nebraska ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Nebraska +2.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.7 · mkt 9.0 · closer
SMU @ Boston CollegeFinal 45–13
Model
pred SMU 13.0 · actual SMU 32
winner SMU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned SMU -10.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 19.0 · mkt 21.5 · closer
Georgia @ Mississippi StateFinal 41–21
Model
pred Georgia 16.5 · actual Georgia 20
winner Georgia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia -9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.5 · mkt 10.5 · closer
Ohio State @ PurdueFinal 34–10
Model
pred Ohio State 31.7 · actual Ohio State 24
winner Ohio State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ohio State -29.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.7 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.