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2025 · Week 10 · FBS · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 10 backtest · FBS · 52 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
39–1375%
ATS vs close
25–2748%
Model margin MAE
13.9
Market margin MAE
12.9
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Purdue @ MichiganFinal 16–21
Model
pred Michigan 20.3 · actual Michigan 5
winner Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Purdue +21.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 15.3 · mkt 16.0 · closer
Oklahoma State @ KansasFinal 21–38
Model
pred Kansas 15.6 · actual Kansas 17
winner Kansas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma State +24.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.4 · mkt 7.5 · closer
South Carolina @ Ole MissFinal 14–30
Model
pred Ole Miss 15.2 · actual Ole Miss 16
winner Ole Miss ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ole Miss -13.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.8 · mkt 3.0 · closer
Fresno State @ Boise StateFinal 30–7
Model
pred Boise State 14.5 · actual Fresno State 23
winner Boise State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Fresno State +17.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 37.5 · mkt 40.5 · closer
West Virginia @ HoustonFinal 45–35
Model
pred Houston 14.3 · actual West Virginia 10
winner Houston ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Houston -13.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.3 · mkt 23.0 · mkt closer
UAB @ UConnFinal 19–38
Model
pred UConn 14.2 · actual UConn 19
winner UConn ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UConn -10.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.8 · mkt 8.5 · closer
Central Michigan @ Western MichiganFinal 21–24
Model
pred Western Michigan 13.3 · actual Western Michigan 3
winner Western Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Western Michigan -5.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.3 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
New Mexico @ UNLVFinal 40–35
Model
pred UNLV 13.0 · actual New Mexico 5
winner UNLV ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UNLV -3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.0 · mkt 8.5 · mkt closer
Duke @ ClemsonFinal 46–45
Model
pred Clemson 11.7 · actual Duke 1
winner Clemson ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Clemson -4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.7 · mkt 5.0 · mkt closer
New Mexico State @ Western KentuckyFinal 16–35
Model
pred Western Kentucky 11.4 · actual Western Kentucky 19
winner Western Kentucky ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Western Kentucky -7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.6 · mkt 11.5 · closer
Wyoming @ San Diego StateFinal 7–24
Model
pred San Diego State 11.3 · actual San Diego State 17
winner San Diego State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San Diego State -10.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.7 · mkt 7.0 · closer
Penn State @ Ohio StateFinal 14–38
Model
pred Ohio State 8.4 · actual Ohio State 24
winner Ohio State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Penn State +17.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 15.6 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
Florida International @ Missouri StateFinal 21–28
Model
pred Missouri State 8.3 · actual Missouri State 7
winner Missouri State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Missouri State -3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.3 · mkt 4.0 · closer
Vanderbilt @ TexasFinal 31–34
Model
pred Texas 7.5 · actual Texas 3
winner Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas -3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 4.5 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Kentucky @ AuburnFinal 10–3
Model
pred Auburn 7.0 · actual Kentucky 7
winner Auburn ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Kentucky +11.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.0 · mkt 18.5 · closer
Delaware @ LibertyFinal 30–59
Model
pred Liberty 6.9 · actual Liberty 29
winner Liberty ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Liberty -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 22.1 · mkt 25.5 · closer
Arkansas State @ TroyFinal 23–10
Model
pred Troy 6.7 · actual Arkansas State 13
winner Troy ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Arkansas State +7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 19.7 · mkt 20.5 · closer
Wake Forest @ Florida StateFinal 7–42
Model
pred Florida State 6.0 · actual Florida State 35
winner Florida State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Wake Forest +12.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 29.0 · mkt 22.5 · mkt closer
UTEP @ Kennesaw StateFinal 20–33
Model
pred Kennesaw State 5.5 · actual Kennesaw State 13
winner Kennesaw State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UTEP +12.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.5 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Michigan State @ MinnesotaFinal 20–23
Model
pred Minnesota 5.5 · actual Minnesota 3
winner Minnesota ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Minnesota -4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 2.5 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
UCF @ BaylorFinal 3–30
Model
pred Baylor 5.4 · actual Baylor 27
winner Baylor ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Baylor -3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 21.6 · mkt 24.0 · closer
Cincinnati @ UtahFinal 14–45
Model
pred Utah 5.2 · actual Utah 31
winner Utah ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Cincinnati +11.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 25.8 · mkt 20.0 · mkt closer
Sam Houston @ Louisiana TechFinal 14–55
Model
pred Louisiana Tech 3.8 · actual Louisiana Tech 41
winner Louisiana Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Sam Houston +16.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 37.2 · mkt 24.5 · mkt closer
Louisiana @ South AlabamaFinal 31–22
Model
pred South Alabama 3.7 · actual Louisiana 9
winner South Alabama ✗
ATS vs close
leaned South Alabama -3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.7 · mkt 12.5 · mkt closer
Mississippi State @ ArkansasFinal 38–35
Model
pred Arkansas 3.3 · actual Mississippi State 3
winner Arkansas ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Mississippi State +5.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.3 · mkt 8.5 · closer
Rutgers @ IllinoisFinal 13–35
Model
pred Illinois 3.3 · actual Illinois 22
winner Illinois ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Rutgers +13.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.7 · mkt 9.0 · mkt closer
Washington State @ Oregon StateFinal 7–10
Model
pred Oregon State 3.1 · actual Oregon State 3
winner Oregon State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State +3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.1 · mkt 6.5 · closer
Tulane @ UTSAFinal 26–48
Model
pred UTSA 2.7 · actual UTSA 22
winner UTSA ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UTSA +6.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 19.3 · mkt 28.0 · closer
North Carolina @ SyracuseFinal 27–10
Model
pred Syracuse 2.6 · actual North Carolina 17
winner Syracuse ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Syracuse -1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.6 · mkt 18.5 · mkt closer
Miami @ SMUFinal 20–26
Model
pred SMU 2.0 · actual SMU 6
winner SMU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned SMU +8.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.0 · mkt 14.5 · closer
Navy @ North TexasFinal 17–31
Model
pred North Texas 2.0 · actual North Texas 14
winner North Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Navy +6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.0 · mkt 7.5 · mkt closer
Oklahoma @ TennesseeFinal 33–27
Model
pred Tennessee 1.7 · actual Oklahoma 6
winner Tennessee ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.7 · mkt 9.0 · closer
Virginia @ CaliforniaFinal 31–21
Model
pred Virginia 0.1 · actual Virginia 10
winner Virginia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned California +6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 9.9 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
Arizona State @ Iowa StateFinal 24–19
Model
pred Arizona State 0.5 · actual Arizona State 5
winner Arizona State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arizona State +7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.5 · mkt 12.5 · closer
Hawai'i @ San José StateFinal 38–45
Model
pred Hawai'i 0.9 · actual San José State 7
winner Hawai'i ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Hawai'i +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.9 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
James Madison @ Texas StateFinal 52–20
Model
pred James Madison 1.0 · actual James Madison 32
winner James Madison ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas State +7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 31.0 · mkt 24.5 · mkt closer
East Carolina @ TempleFinal 45–14
Model
pred East Carolina 1.1 · actual East Carolina 31
winner East Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Temple +5.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 29.9 · mkt 25.5 · mkt closer
Buffalo @ Bowling GreenFinal 28–3
Model
pred Buffalo 2.4 · actual Buffalo 25
winner Buffalo ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Buffalo +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 22.6 · mkt 27.5 · closer
USC @ NebraskaFinal 21–17
Model
pred USC 2.4 · actual USC 4
winner USC ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Nebraska +4.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.6 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Texas Tech @ Kansas StateFinal 43–20
Model
pred Texas Tech 3.8 · actual Texas Tech 23
winner Texas Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kansas State +7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.2 · mkt 15.5 · mkt closer
Army @ Air ForceFinal 20–17
Model
pred Army 5.3 · actual Army 3
winner Army ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Army -1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.3 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Georgia Tech @ NC StateFinal 36–48
Model
pred Georgia Tech 6.5 · actual NC State 12
winner Georgia Tech ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia Tech -4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.5 · mkt 16.5 · mkt closer
Georgia @ FloridaFinal 24–20
Model
pred Georgia 6.9 · actual Georgia 4
winner Georgia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Florida +7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.9 · mkt 3.0 · closer
Marshall @ Coastal CarolinaFinal 27–44
Model
pred Marshall 7.8 · actual Coastal Carolina 17
winner Marshall ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Marshall -7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.8 · mkt 24.0 · mkt closer
Arizona @ ColoradoFinal 52–17
Model
pred Arizona 8.4 · actual Arizona 35
winner Arizona ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arizona -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 26.6 · mkt 31.5 · closer
Louisville @ Virginia TechFinal 28–16
Model
pred Louisville 10.6 · actual Louisville 12
winner Louisville ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Louisville -10.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.4 · mkt 1.5 · closer
Old Dominion @ UL MonroeFinal 31–6
Model
pred Old Dominion 11.4 · actual Old Dominion 25
winner Old Dominion ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UL Monroe +16.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.6 · mkt 8.5 · mkt closer
Jacksonville State @ Middle TennesseeFinal 24–21
Model
pred Jacksonville State 11.7 · actual Jacksonville State 3
winner Jacksonville State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Jacksonville State -4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.7 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Memphis @ RiceFinal 38–14
Model
pred Memphis 12.7 · actual Memphis 24
winner Memphis ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Rice +14.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.3 · mkt 10.0 · mkt closer
Indiana @ MarylandFinal 55–10
Model
pred Indiana 13.2 · actual Indiana 45
winner Indiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Maryland +21.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 31.8 · mkt 24.0 · mkt closer
Pittsburgh @ StanfordFinal 35–20
Model
pred Pittsburgh 13.4 · actual Pittsburgh 15
winner Pittsburgh ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Stanford +13.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 1.6 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Notre Dame @ Boston CollegeFinal 25–10
Model
pred Notre Dame 28.5 · actual Notre Dame 15
winner Notre Dame ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Boston College +31.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 13.5 · mkt 16.0 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.