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CFB Betting Edge

2025 · Week 1 · FBS · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 1 backtest · FBS · 48 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
35–1373%
ATS vs close
26–2155%
Model margin MAE
13.7
Market margin MAE
12.3
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Nevada @ Penn StateFinal 11–46
Model
pred Penn State 31.6 · actual Penn State 35
winner Penn State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Nevada +43.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.4 · mkt 8.5 · closer
New Mexico @ MichiganFinal 17–34
Model
pred Michigan 31.0 · actual Michigan 17
winner Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico +34.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.0 · mkt 17.5 · closer
Georgia State @ Ole MissFinal 7–63
Model
pred Ole Miss 25.2 · actual Ole Miss 56
winner Ole Miss ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia State +33.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 30.8 · mkt 22.5 · mkt closer
Missouri State @ USCFinal 13–73
Model
pred USC 23.2 · actual USC 60
winner USC ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Missouri State +36.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 36.8 · mkt 23.5 · mkt closer
Old Dominion @ IndianaFinal 14–27
Model
pred Indiana 20.7 · actual Indiana 13
winner Indiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Old Dominion +23.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.7 · mkt 10.5 · closer
UTSA @ Texas A&MFinal 24–42
Model
pred Texas A&M 20.3 · actual Texas A&M 18
winner Texas A&M ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UTSA +23.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.3 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Buffalo @ MinnesotaFinal 10–23
Model
pred Minnesota 20.0 · actual Minnesota 13
winner Minnesota ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Minnesota -16.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.0 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
Kennesaw State @ Wake ForestFinal 9–10
Model
pred Wake Forest 18.8 · actual Wake Forest 1
winner Wake Forest ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Wake Forest -18.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.8 · mkt 17.5 · mkt closer
Marshall @ GeorgiaFinal 7–45
Model
pred Georgia 18.6 · actual Georgia 38
winner Georgia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Marshall +38.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 19.4 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Eastern Michigan @ Texas StateFinal 27–52
Model
pred Texas State 17.8 · actual Texas State 25
winner Texas State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas State -14.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.2 · mkt 11.0 · closer
Syracuse @ TennesseeFinal 26–45
Model
pred Tennessee 16.3 · actual Tennessee 19
winner Tennessee ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Tennessee -13.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.7 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Fresno State @ KansasFinal 7–31
Model
pred Kansas 15.2 · actual Kansas 24
winner Kansas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kansas -14.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.8 · mkt 10.0 · closer
Colorado State @ WashingtonFinal 21–38
Model
pred Washington 15.0 · actual Washington 17
winner Washington ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado State +22.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.0 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Ball State @ PurdueFinal 0–31
Model
pred Purdue 14.2 · actual Purdue 31
winner Purdue ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ball State +16.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.8 · mkt 14.5 · mkt closer
Florida Atlantic @ MarylandFinal 7–39
Model
pred Maryland 13.5 · actual Maryland 32
winner Maryland ✓
ATS vs close
model matched the close — no lean
margin err: model 18.5 · mkt 18.5 · tie
Central Michigan @ San José StateFinal 16–14
Model
pred San José State 13.0 · actual Central Michigan 2
winner San José State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Central Michigan +14.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 15.0 · mkt 16.5 · closer
East Carolina @ NC StateFinal 17–24
Model
pred NC State 12.9 · actual NC State 7
winner NC State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned East Carolina +13.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.9 · mkt 6.5 · closer
Northwestern @ TulaneFinal 3–23
Model
pred Tulane 11.5 · actual Tulane 20
winner Tulane ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Tulane -6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.5 · mkt 13.5 · closer
Hawai'i @ ArizonaFinal 6–40
Model
pred Arizona 9.6 · actual Arizona 34
winner Arizona ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Hawai'i +15.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.4 · mkt 18.5 · mkt closer
Toledo @ KentuckyFinal 16–24
Model
pred Kentucky 9.2 · actual Kentucky 8
winner Kentucky ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Toledo +10.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.2 · mkt 2.0 · closer
Ohio @ RutgersFinal 31–34
Model
pred Rutgers 8.9 · actual Rutgers 3
winner Rutgers ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ohio +15.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.9 · mkt 12.5 · closer
Virginia Tech @ South CarolinaFinal 11–24
Model
pred South Carolina 8.8 · actual South Carolina 13
winner South Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned South Carolina -7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.2 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Miami (OH) @ WisconsinFinal 0–17
Model
pred Wisconsin 7.3 · actual Wisconsin 17
winner Wisconsin ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Miami (OH) +18.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.7 · mkt 1.0 · mkt closer
Western Michigan @ Michigan StateFinal 6–23
Model
pred Michigan State 6.5 · actual Michigan State 17
winner Michigan State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Western Michigan +21.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.5 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
UTEP @ Utah StateFinal 16–28
Model
pred Utah State 5.9 · actual Utah State 12
winner Utah State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Utah State -4.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.1 · mkt 7.5 · closer
Auburn @ BaylorFinal 38–24
Model
pred Baylor 5.6 · actual Auburn 14
winner Baylor ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Baylor +1.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.6 · mkt 13.0 · mkt closer
Jacksonville State @ UCFFinal 10–17
Model
pred UCF 5.1 · actual UCF 7
winner UCF ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Jacksonville State +20.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.9 · mkt 13.5 · closer
LSU @ ClemsonFinal 17–10
Model
pred Clemson 4.3 · actual LSU 7
winner Clemson ✗
ATS vs close
leaned LSU +5.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 11.3 · mkt 12.5 · closer
Texas @ Ohio StateFinal 7–14
Model
pred Ohio State 3.4 · actual Ohio State 7
winner Ohio State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ohio State -2.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.6 · mkt 5.0 · closer
Iowa State @ Kansas StateFinal 24–21
Model
pred Kansas State 3.4 · actual Iowa State 3
winner Kansas State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Kansas State -3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 6.4 · mkt 6.0 · mkt closer
Georgia Tech @ ColoradoFinal 27–20
Model
pred Colorado 2.9 · actual Georgia Tech 7
winner Colorado ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado +3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 9.9 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
Coastal Carolina @ VirginiaFinal 7–48
Model
pred Virginia 2.6 · actual Virginia 41
winner Virginia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Coastal Carolina +13.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 38.4 · mkt 27.5 · mkt closer
Rice @ LouisianaFinal 14–12
Model
pred Louisiana 1.7 · actual Rice 2
winner Louisiana ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Rice +9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.7 · mkt 11.5 · closer
Stanford @ Hawai'iFinal 20–23
Model
pred Hawai'i 1.3 · actual Hawai'i 3
winner Hawai'i ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Stanford +1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 1.7 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
California @ Oregon StateFinal 34–15
Model
pred Oregon State 1.0 · actual California 19
winner Oregon State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.0 · mkt 16.5 · mkt closer
Temple @ MassachusettsFinal 42–10
Model
pred Massachusetts 0.8 · actual Temple 32
winner Massachusetts ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Massachusetts +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 32.8 · mkt 29.5 · mkt closer
Utah @ UCLAFinal 43–10
Model
pred Utah 0.5 · actual Utah 33
winner Utah ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UCLA +6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 32.5 · mkt 26.5 · mkt closer
Nebraska @ CincinnatiFinal 20–17
Model
pred Nebraska 1.1 · actual Nebraska 3
winner Nebraska ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Cincinnati +6.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.9 · mkt 3.0 · closer
Wyoming @ AkronFinal 10–0
Model
pred Wyoming 1.7 · actual Wyoming 10
winner Wyoming ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Akron +5.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.3 · mkt 5.0 · mkt closer
Sam Houston @ Western KentuckyFinal 24–41
Model
pred Sam Houston 1.8 · actual Western Kentucky 17
winner Sam Houston ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Sam Houston +9.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.8 · mkt 7.5 · mkt closer
Boise State @ South FloridaFinal 7–34
Model
pred Boise State 2.6 · actual South Florida 27
winner Boise State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned South Florida +5.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 29.6 · mkt 32.5 · closer
TCU @ North CarolinaFinal 48–14
Model
pred TCU 3.2 · actual TCU 34
winner TCU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned North Carolina +3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 30.8 · mkt 30.5 · mkt closer
App State @ CharlotteFinal 34–11
Model
pred App State 3.5 · actual App State 23
winner App State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Charlotte +8.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.5 · mkt 14.5 · mkt closer
Georgia Southern @ Fresno StateFinal 14–42
Model
pred Georgia Southern 4.7 · actual Fresno State 28
winner Georgia Southern ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia Southern +2.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 32.7 · mkt 26.0 · mkt closer
Notre Dame @ MiamiFinal 24–27
Model
pred Notre Dame 5.3 · actual Miami 3
winner Notre Dame ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Notre Dame -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.3 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
UNLV @ Sam HoustonFinal 38–21
Model
pred UNLV 9.7 · actual UNLV 17
winner UNLV ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UNLV -9.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.3 · mkt 8.0 · closer
Alabama @ Florida StateFinal 17–31
Model
pred Alabama 16.1 · actual Florida State 14
winner Alabama ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Alabama -13.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 30.1 · mkt 27.5 · mkt closer
Mississippi State @ Southern MissFinal 34–17
Model
pred Mississippi State 18.5 · actual Mississippi State 17
winner Mississippi State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Mississippi State -14.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.5 · mkt 2.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.