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CFB Betting Edge

2024 · Week 9 · FBS · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 9 backtest · FBS · 56 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
46–1082%
ATS vs close
31–23 · 2P57%
Model margin MAE
12.4
Market margin MAE
11.6
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Nebraska @ Ohio StateFinal 17–21
Model
pred Ohio State 28.9 · actual Ohio State 4
winner Ohio State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ohio State -25.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.9 · mkt 21.0 · mkt closer
Michigan State @ MichiganFinal 17–24
Model
pred Michigan 24.7 · actual Michigan 7
winner Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Michigan -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 17.7 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
Southern Miss @ James MadisonFinal 15–32
Model
pred James Madison 23.0 · actual James Madison 17
winner James Madison ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Southern Miss +24.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.0 · mkt 7.0 · closer
Illinois @ OregonFinal 9–38
Model
pred Oregon 22.1 · actual Oregon 29
winner Oregon ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Illinois +22.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 6.9 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
Middle Tennessee @ Jacksonville StateFinal 20–42
Model
pred Jacksonville State 18.2 · actual Jacksonville State 22
winner Jacksonville State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Middle Tennessee +20.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 3.8 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Kent State @ Western MichiganFinal 21–52
Model
pred Western Michigan 18.0 · actual Western Michigan 31
winner Western Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kent State +19.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.0 · mkt 12.0 · mkt closer
Oklahoma @ Ole MissFinal 14–26
Model
pred Ole Miss 16.9 · actual Ole Miss 12
winner Ole Miss ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma +19.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.9 · mkt 7.5 · closer
Charlotte @ MemphisFinal 28–33
Model
pred Memphis 16.8 · actual Memphis 5
winner Memphis ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Charlotte +17.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 11.8 · mkt 12.0 · closer
Florida State @ MiamiFinal 14–36
Model
pred Miami 15.9 · actual Miami 22
winner Miami ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Florida State +22.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.1 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Rutgers @ USCFinal 20–42
Model
pred USC 12.4 · actual USC 22
winner USC ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Rutgers +13.8Miss ✗
margin err: model 9.6 · mkt 8.2 · mkt closer
UL Monroe @ South AlabamaFinal 17–46
Model
pred South Alabama 12.1 · actual South Alabama 29
winner South Alabama ✓
ATS vs close
leaned South Alabama -7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 16.9 · mkt 22.0 · closer
Georgia Tech @ Virginia TechFinal 6–21
Model
pred Virginia Tech 11.9 · actual Virginia Tech 15
winner Virginia Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Virginia Tech -11.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.1 · mkt 4.0 · closer
Northwestern @ IowaFinal 14–40
Model
pred Iowa 11.1 · actual Iowa 26
winner Iowa ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Northwestern +16.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.9 · mkt 9.5 · mkt closer
Temple @ East CarolinaFinal 34–56
Model
pred East Carolina 10.1 · actual East Carolina 22
winner East Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned East Carolina -8.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 11.9 · mkt 13.5 · closer
Washington @ IndianaFinal 17–31
Model
pred Indiana 10.1 · actual Indiana 14
winner Indiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Indiana -5.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.9 · mkt 8.5 · closer
Central Michigan @ Miami (OH)Final 7–46
Model
pred Miami (OH) 9.7 · actual Miami (OH) 39
winner Miami (OH) ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Central Michigan +10.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 29.3 · mkt 28.5 · mkt closer
Missouri @ AlabamaFinal 0–34
Model
pred Alabama 9.4 · actual Alabama 34
winner Alabama ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Missouri +16.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.6 · mkt 18.0 · mkt closer
UTEP @ Louisiana TechFinal 10–14
Model
pred Louisiana Tech 9.1 · actual Louisiana Tech 4
winner Louisiana Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana Tech -6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 5.1 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Kansas @ Kansas StateFinal 27–29
Model
pred Kansas State 8.7 · actual Kansas State 2
winner Kansas State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kansas +10.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.7 · mkt 8.0 · closer
Utah State @ WyomingFinal 27–25
Model
pred Wyoming 8.7 · actual Utah State 2
winner Wyoming ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Wyoming +2.0Push
margin err: model 10.7 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
Syracuse @ PittsburghFinal 13–41
Model
pred Pittsburgh 7.4 · actual Pittsburgh 28
winner Pittsburgh ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Pittsburgh -5.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 20.6 · mkt 23.0 · closer
Bowling Green @ ToledoFinal 41–26
Model
pred Toledo 7.2 · actual Bowling Green 15
winner Toledo ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Toledo -2.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 22.2 · mkt 17.0 · mkt closer
Georgia State @ App StateFinal 26–33
Model
pred App State 5.1 · actual App State 7
winner App State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia State +7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.9 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Buffalo @ OhioFinal 16–47
Model
pred Ohio 4.9 · actual Ohio 31
winner Ohio ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ohio -4.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 26.1 · mkt 27.0 · closer
Rice @ UConnFinal 10–17
Model
pred UConn 4.8 · actual UConn 7
winner UConn ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Rice +6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 2.2 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Oregon State @ CaliforniaFinal 7–44
Model
pred California 4.4 · actual California 37
winner California ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State +13.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 32.6 · mkt 24.0 · mkt closer
San José State @ Fresno StateFinal 10–33
Model
pred Fresno State 4.4 · actual Fresno State 23
winner Fresno State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San José State +6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.6 · mkt 16.5 · mkt closer
Cincinnati @ ColoradoFinal 23–34
Model
pred Colorado 4.3 · actual Colorado 11
winner Colorado ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Cincinnati +6.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 6.7 · mkt 5.0 · mkt closer
Nevada @ Hawai'iFinal 13–34
Model
pred Hawai'i 4.0 · actual Hawai'i 21
winner Hawai'i ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Hawai'i -2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 17.0 · mkt 18.5 · closer
New Mexico @ Colorado StateFinal 6–17
Model
pred Colorado State 3.8 · actual Colorado State 11
winner Colorado State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado State -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.2 · mkt 7.5 · closer
Troy @ Arkansas StateFinal 31–34
Model
pred Arkansas State 3.8 · actual Arkansas State 3
winner Arkansas State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Troy +8.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.8 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Wake Forest @ StanfordFinal 27–24
Model
pred Stanford 2.7 · actual Wake Forest 3
winner Stanford ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Stanford +3.0Push
margin err: model 5.7 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
LSU @ Texas A&MFinal 23–38
Model
pred Texas A&M 1.5 · actual Texas A&M 15
winner Texas A&M ✓
ATS vs close
leaned LSU +2.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.5 · mkt 13.0 · mkt closer
Georgia Southern @ Old DominionFinal 19–47
Model
pred Old Dominion 1.2 · actual Old Dominion 28
winner Old Dominion ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Old Dominion +1.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 26.8 · mkt 29.0 · closer
Maryland @ MinnesotaFinal 23–48
Model
pred Minnesota 0.1 · actual Minnesota 25
winner Minnesota ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Maryland +6.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.9 · mkt 19.0 · mkt closer
Texas Tech @ TCUFinal 34–35
Model
pred Texas Tech 0.4 · actual TCU 1
winner Texas Tech ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Texas Tech +5.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.4 · mkt 4.0 · closer
Auburn @ KentuckyFinal 24–10
Model
pred Auburn 0.5 · actual Auburn 14
winner Auburn ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Auburn +2.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 13.5 · mkt 16.0 · closer
West Virginia @ ArizonaFinal 31–26
Model
pred West Virginia 0.8 · actual West Virginia 5
winner West Virginia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned West Virginia +5.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.2 · mkt 10.5 · closer
Oklahoma State @ BaylorFinal 28–38
Model
pred Oklahoma State 2.4 · actual Baylor 10
winner Oklahoma State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma State +7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.4 · mkt 3.0 · mkt closer
North Carolina @ VirginiaFinal 41–14
Model
pred North Carolina 2.4 · actual North Carolina 27
winner North Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned North Carolina +3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 24.6 · mkt 30.5 · closer
Boise State @ UNLVFinal 29–24
Model
pred Boise State 3.3 · actual Boise State 5
winner Boise State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UNLV +4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 1.7 · mkt 1.0 · mkt closer
BYU @ UCFFinal 37–24
Model
pred BYU 4.2 · actual BYU 13
winner BYU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned BYU +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.8 · mkt 15.5 · closer
Sam Houston @ Florida InternationalFinal 10–7
Model
pred Sam Houston 4.3 · actual Sam Houston 3
winner Sam Houston ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Florida International +5.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.3 · mkt 2.0 · closer
UTSA @ TulsaFinal 45–46
Model
pred UTSA 5.1 · actual Tulsa 1
winner UTSA ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Tulsa +9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.1 · mkt 10.5 · closer
Louisville @ Boston CollegeFinal 31–27
Model
pred Louisville 5.4 · actual Louisville 4
winner Louisville ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Boston College +7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.4 · mkt 3.0 · closer
Arkansas @ Mississippi StateFinal 58–25
Model
pred Arkansas 5.7 · actual Arkansas 33
winner Arkansas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Mississippi State +7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 27.3 · mkt 25.5 · mkt closer
Washington State @ San Diego StateFinal 29–26
Model
pred Washington State 7.0 · actual Washington State 3
winner Washington State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San Diego State +17.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.0 · mkt 14.0 · closer
Utah @ HoustonFinal 14–17
Model
pred Utah 7.4 · actual Houston 3
winner Utah ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Utah -4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.4 · mkt 7.5 · mkt closer
SMU @ DukeFinal 28–27
Model
pred SMU 9.0 · actual SMU 1
winner SMU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Duke +11.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.0 · mkt 10.5 · closer
Eastern Michigan @ AkronFinal 21–25
Model
pred Eastern Michigan 11.7 · actual Akron 4
winner Eastern Michigan ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Eastern Michigan -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 15.7 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
Notre Dame @ NavyFinal 51–14
Model
pred Notre Dame 12.2 · actual Notre Dame 37
winner Notre Dame ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Navy +14.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.8 · mkt 23.0 · mkt closer
Penn State @ WisconsinFinal 28–13
Model
pred Penn State 12.9 · actual Penn State 15
winner Penn State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Penn State -6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.1 · mkt 8.5 · closer
Northern Illinois @ Ball StateFinal 23–25
Model
pred Northern Illinois 13.1 · actual Ball State 2
winner Northern Illinois ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Ball State +13.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 15.1 · mkt 15.5 · closer
Tulane @ North TexasFinal 45–37
Model
pred Tulane 16.3 · actual Tulane 8
winner Tulane ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Tulane -7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.3 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Texas @ VanderbiltFinal 27–24
Model
pred Texas 22.7 · actual Texas 3
winner Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas -17.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.7 · mkt 14.0 · mkt closer
Liberty @ Kennesaw StateFinal 24–27
Model
pred Liberty 24.2 · actual Kennesaw State 3
winner Liberty ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Kennesaw State +27.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 27.2 · mkt 30.0 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.