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CFB Betting Edge

2024 · Week 7 · FBS · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 7 backtest · FBS · 52 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
40–1277%
ATS vs close
21–28 · 3P43%
Model margin MAE
13.2
Market margin MAE
10.9
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Mississippi State @ GeorgiaFinal 31–41
Model
pred Georgia 30.9 · actual Georgia 10
winner Georgia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Mississippi State +34.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 20.9 · mkt 24.0 · closer
South Carolina @ AlabamaFinal 25–27
Model
pred Alabama 28.2 · actual Alabama 2
winner Alabama ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Alabama -21.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 26.2 · mkt 19.0 · mkt closer
Stanford @ Notre DameFinal 7–49
Model
pred Notre Dame 26.7 · actual Notre Dame 42
winner Notre Dame ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Notre Dame -22.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 15.3 · mkt 19.5 · closer
Florida International @ LibertyFinal 24–31
Model
pred Liberty 18.8 · actual Liberty 7
winner Liberty ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Liberty -15.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.8 · mkt 8.5 · mkt closer
Arkansas State @ Texas StateFinal 9–41
Model
pred Texas State 17.1 · actual Texas State 32
winner Texas State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas State -13.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.9 · mkt 18.5 · closer
Florida @ TennesseeFinal 17–23
Model
pred Tennessee 16.9 · actual Tennessee 6
winner Tennessee ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Tennessee -14.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.9 · mkt 8.0 · mkt closer
Akron @ Western MichiganFinal 24–34
Model
pred Western Michigan 15.8 · actual Western Michigan 10
winner Western Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Western Michigan -9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.8 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
UAB @ ArmyFinal 10–44
Model
pred Army 15.5 · actual Army 34
winner Army ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UAB +27.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.5 · mkt 7.0 · mkt closer
Purdue @ IllinoisFinal 49–50
Model
pred Illinois 15.3 · actual Illinois 1
winner Illinois ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Purdue +22.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.3 · mkt 21.5 · closer
UTEP @ Western KentuckyFinal 17–44
Model
pred Western Kentucky 13.3 · actual Western Kentucky 27
winner Western Kentucky ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UTEP +19.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.7 · mkt 8.0 · mkt closer
Vanderbilt @ KentuckyFinal 20–13
Model
pred Kentucky 12.7 · actual Vanderbilt 7
winner Kentucky ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Kentucky -12.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.7 · mkt 19.5 · mkt closer
Northwestern @ MarylandFinal 37–10
Model
pred Maryland 12.1 · actual Northwestern 27
winner Maryland ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Maryland -11.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 39.1 · mkt 38.0 · mkt closer
New Mexico State @ Jacksonville StateFinal 13–54
Model
pred Jacksonville State 11.0 · actual Jacksonville State 41
winner Jacksonville State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico State +21.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 30.0 · mkt 20.0 · mkt closer
Coastal Carolina @ James MadisonFinal 7–39
Model
pred James Madison 7.4 · actual James Madison 32
winner James Madison ✓
ATS vs close
leaned James Madison -7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 24.6 · mkt 25.0 · closer
App State @ LouisianaFinal 24–34
Model
pred Louisiana 7.0 · actual Louisiana 10
winner Louisiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned App State +10.0Push
margin err: model 3.0 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
Washington State @ Fresno StateFinal 25–17
Model
pred Fresno State 6.1 · actual Washington State 8
winner Fresno State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Fresno State +3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.1 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
California @ PittsburghFinal 15–17
Model
pred Pittsburgh 4.6 · actual Pittsburgh 2
winner Pittsburgh ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Pittsburgh -3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 2.6 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Southern Miss @ UL MonroeFinal 21–38
Model
pred UL Monroe 4.4 · actual UL Monroe 17
winner UL Monroe ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Southern Miss +4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.6 · mkt 12.5 · mkt closer
Marshall @ Georgia SouthernFinal 23–24
Model
pred Georgia Southern 4.3 · actual Georgia Southern 1
winner Georgia Southern ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia Southern -1.0Push
margin err: model 3.3 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
Middle Tennessee @ Louisiana TechFinal 21–48
Model
pred Louisiana Tech 4.2 · actual Louisiana Tech 27
winner Louisiana Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Middle Tennessee +5.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 22.8 · mkt 22.0 · mkt closer
UTSA @ RiceFinal 27–29
Model
pred Rice 2.5 · actual Rice 2
winner Rice ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Rice +3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.5 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Air Force @ New MexicoFinal 37–52
Model
pred New Mexico 2.1 · actual New Mexico 15
winner New Mexico ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Air Force +7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.9 · mkt 8.0 · mkt closer
Wisconsin @ RutgersFinal 42–7
Model
pred Rutgers 2.1 · actual Wisconsin 35
winner Rutgers ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Rutgers -1.3Miss ✗
margin err: model 37.1 · mkt 36.3 · mkt closer
Miami (OH) @ Eastern MichiganFinal 38–14
Model
pred Eastern Michigan 1.8 · actual Miami (OH) 24
winner Eastern Michigan ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Eastern Michigan +3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 25.8 · mkt 21.0 · mkt closer
Arizona @ BYUFinal 19–41
Model
pred BYU 1.4 · actual BYU 22
winner BYU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arizona +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.6 · mkt 19.5 · mkt closer
Georgia Tech @ North CarolinaFinal 41–34
Model
pred North Carolina 1.0 · actual Georgia Tech 7
winner North Carolina ✗
ATS vs close
leaned North Carolina +3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.0 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
Utah @ Arizona StateFinal 19–27
Model
pred Arizona State 0.9 · actual Arizona State 8
winner Arizona State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arizona State +5.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.1 · mkt 13.5 · closer
North Texas @ Florida AtlanticFinal 41–37
Model
pred North Texas 0.5 · actual North Texas 4
winner North Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Florida Atlantic +5.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.5 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Louisville @ VirginiaFinal 24–20
Model
pred Louisville 0.6 · actual Louisville 4
winner Louisville ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Virginia +7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.4 · mkt 3.0 · mkt closer
Old Dominion @ Georgia StateFinal 21–14
Model
pred Old Dominion 0.6 · actual Old Dominion 7
winner Old Dominion ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Old Dominion +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.4 · mkt 10.0 · closer
Northern Illinois @ Bowling GreenFinal 17–7
Model
pred Northern Illinois 0.9 · actual Northern Illinois 10
winner Northern Illinois ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Northern Illinois +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.1 · mkt 13.0 · closer
Cincinnati @ UCFFinal 19–13
Model
pred Cincinnati 1.0 · actual Cincinnati 6
winner Cincinnati ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Cincinnati +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.0 · mkt 8.5 · closer
Ohio @ Central MichiganFinal 27–25
Model
pred Ohio 1.2 · actual Ohio 2
winner Ohio ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Central Michigan +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.8 · mkt 1.0 · closer
Syracuse @ NC StateFinal 24–17
Model
pred Syracuse 1.7 · actual Syracuse 7
winner Syracuse ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Syracuse -1.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.3 · mkt 6.0 · closer
Kansas State @ ColoradoFinal 31–28
Model
pred Kansas State 2.9 · actual Kansas State 3
winner Kansas State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado +3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.1 · mkt 0.5 · closer
Minnesota @ UCLAFinal 21–17
Model
pred Minnesota 3.2 · actual Minnesota 4
winner Minnesota ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UCLA +3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 0.8 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
San Diego State @ WyomingFinal 27–24
Model
pred San Diego State 3.4 · actual San Diego State 3
winner San Diego State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San Diego State +1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.4 · mkt 4.5 · closer
Ole Miss @ LSUFinal 26–29
Model
pred Ole Miss 4.4 · actual LSU 3
winner Ole Miss ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Ole Miss -4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.4 · mkt 7.0 · mkt closer
Washington @ IowaFinal 16–40
Model
pred Washington 4.8 · actual Iowa 24
winner Washington ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Washington +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 28.8 · mkt 21.5 · mkt closer
Ohio State @ OregonFinal 31–32
Model
pred Ohio State 5.7 · actual Oregon 1
winner Ohio State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Ohio State -3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 6.7 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
Iowa State @ West VirginiaFinal 28–16
Model
pred Iowa State 7.2 · actual Iowa State 12
winner Iowa State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa State -3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.8 · mkt 9.0 · closer
San José State @ Colorado StateFinal 24–31
Model
pred San José State 9.6 · actual Colorado State 7
winner San José State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned San José State +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.6 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
Ball State @ Kent StateFinal 37–35
Model
pred Ball State 10.0 · actual Ball State 2
winner Ball State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ball State -3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.0 · mkt 1.0 · mkt closer
UNLV @ Utah StateFinal 50–34
Model
pred UNLV 10.5 · actual UNLV 16
winner UNLV ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Utah State +18.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.5 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Texas @ OklahomaFinal 34–3
Model
pred Texas 11.4 · actual Texas 31
winner Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma +17.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.6 · mkt 14.0 · mkt closer
Memphis @ South FloridaFinal 21–3
Model
pred Memphis 11.9 · actual Memphis 18
winner Memphis ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Memphis -10.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.1 · mkt 8.0 · closer
Oregon State @ NevadaFinal 37–42
Model
pred Oregon State 17.0 · actual Nevada 5
winner Oregon State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State -3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 22.0 · mkt 8.0 · mkt closer
Boise State @ Hawai'iFinal 28–7
Model
pred Boise State 18.0 · actual Boise State 21
winner Boise State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Hawai'i +21.0Push
margin err: model 3.0 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
Penn State @ USCFinal 33–30
Model
pred Penn State 21.8 · actual Penn State 3
winner Penn State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Penn State -3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.8 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Clemson @ Wake ForestFinal 49–14
Model
pred Clemson 23.0 · actual Clemson 35
winner Clemson ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Clemson -21.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 12.0 · mkt 14.0 · closer
Missouri @ MassachusettsFinal 45–3
Model
pred Missouri 24.9 · actual Missouri 42
winner Missouri ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Massachusetts +27.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.1 · mkt 15.0 · mkt closer
Toledo @ BuffaloFinal 15–30
Model
pred Toledo 25.3 · actual Buffalo 15
winner Toledo ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Toledo -10.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 40.3 · mkt 25.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.