CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 6 · FBS · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 6 backtest · FBS · 49 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
31–1863%
ATS vs close
18–29 · 2P38%
Model margin MAE
13.5
Market margin MAE
11.9
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Michigan State @ OregonFinal 10–31
Model
pred Oregon 35.5 · actual Oregon 21
winner Oregon ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon -22.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.5 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Utah State @ Boise StateFinal 30–62
Model
pred Boise State 23.6 · actual Boise State 32
winner Boise State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Utah State +28.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.4 · mkt 4.0 · mkt closer
UCLA @ Penn StateFinal 11–27
Model
pred Penn State 23.2 · actual Penn State 16
winner Penn State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UCLA +29.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.2 · mkt 13.5 · closer
Temple @ UConnFinal 20–29
Model
pred UConn 20.5 · actual UConn 9
winner UConn ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UConn -17.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.5 · mkt 8.5 · mkt closer
Iowa @ Ohio StateFinal 7–35
Model
pred Ohio State 19.8 · actual Ohio State 28
winner Ohio State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ohio State -17.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.2 · mkt 11.0 · closer
Colorado State @ Oregon StateFinal 31–39
Model
pred Oregon State 18.4 · actual Oregon State 8
winner Oregon State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State -10.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.4 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Auburn @ GeorgiaFinal 13–31
Model
pred Georgia 16.0 · actual Georgia 18
winner Georgia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Auburn +21.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.0 · mkt 3.0 · closer
Baylor @ Iowa StateFinal 21–43
Model
pred Iowa State 14.2 · actual Iowa State 22
winner Iowa State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa State -13.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.8 · mkt 9.0 · closer
Purdue @ WisconsinFinal 6–52
Model
pred Wisconsin 13.7 · actual Wisconsin 46
winner Wisconsin ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Wisconsin -12.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 32.3 · mkt 34.0 · closer
Nevada @ San José StateFinal 31–35
Model
pred San José State 13.4 · actual San José State 4
winner San José State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San José State -7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 9.4 · mkt 3.0 · mkt closer
Massachusetts @ Northern IllinoisFinal 20–34
Model
pred Northern Illinois 11.4 · actual Northern Illinois 14
winner Northern Illinois ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Massachusetts +14.0Push
margin err: model 2.6 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
Miami (OH) @ ToledoFinal 20–30
Model
pred Toledo 11.0 · actual Toledo 10
winner Toledo ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Toledo -4.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.0 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Houston @ TCUFinal 30–19
Model
pred TCU 10.6 · actual Houston 11
winner TCU ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Houston +16.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 21.6 · mkt 27.5 · closer
Syracuse @ UNLVFinal 44–41
Model
pred UNLV 9.8 · actual Syracuse 3
winner UNLV ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UNLV -5.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.8 · mkt 8.5 · mkt closer
Old Dominion @ Coastal CarolinaFinal 37–45
Model
pred Coastal Carolina 9.0 · actual Coastal Carolina 8
winner Coastal Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Coastal Carolina -4.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.0 · mkt 4.0 · closer
West Virginia @ Oklahoma StateFinal 38–14
Model
pred Oklahoma State 6.2 · actual West Virginia 24
winner Oklahoma State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma State -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 30.2 · mkt 26.5 · mkt closer
Wake Forest @ NC StateFinal 34–30
Model
pred NC State 6.0 · actual Wake Forest 4
winner NC State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned NC State -4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.0 · mkt 8.0 · mkt closer
Rutgers @ NebraskaFinal 7–14
Model
pred Nebraska 5.0 · actual Nebraska 7
winner Nebraska ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Rutgers +6.3Miss ✗
margin err: model 2.0 · mkt 0.7 · mkt closer
Pittsburgh @ North CarolinaFinal 34–24
Model
pred North Carolina 4.1 · actual Pittsburgh 10
winner North Carolina ✗
ATS vs close
leaned North Carolina +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.1 · mkt 7.5 · mkt closer
Hawai'i @ San Diego StateFinal 24–27
Model
pred San Diego State 3.7 · actual San Diego State 3
winner San Diego State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San Diego State -1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.7 · mkt 1.5 · closer
Western Michigan @ Ball StateFinal 45–42
Model
pred Ball State 3.3 · actual Western Michigan 3
winner Ball State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Ball State +10.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.3 · mkt 7.0 · closer
Duke @ Georgia TechFinal 14–24
Model
pred Georgia Tech 2.2 · actual Georgia Tech 10
winner Georgia Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Duke +10.0Push
margin err: model 7.8 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
SMU @ LouisvilleFinal 34–27
Model
pred Louisville 1.3 · actual SMU 7
winner Louisville ✗
ATS vs close
leaned SMU +6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.3 · mkt 13.5 · closer
Boston College @ VirginiaFinal 14–24
Model
pred Virginia 0.3 · actual Virginia 10
winner Virginia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Boston College +2.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 9.7 · mkt 8.0 · mkt closer
App State @ MarshallFinal 37–52
Model
pred App State 1.1 · actual Marshall 15
winner App State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned App State +3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.1 · mkt 12.0 · mkt closer
Texas Tech @ ArizonaFinal 28–22
Model
pred Texas Tech 1.5 · actual Texas Tech 6
winner Texas Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas Tech +6.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.5 · mkt 12.0 · closer
Kansas @ Arizona StateFinal 31–35
Model
pred Kansas 1.9 · actual Arizona State 4
winner Kansas ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Kansas +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 5.9 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
South Alabama @ Arkansas StateFinal 16–18
Model
pred South Alabama 1.9 · actual Arkansas State 2
winner South Alabama ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Arkansas State +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.9 · mkt 4.5 · closer
Michigan @ WashingtonFinal 17–27
Model
pred Michigan 1.9 · actual Washington 10
winner Michigan ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Michigan +1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.9 · mkt 8.5 · mkt closer
Texas State @ TroyFinal 38–17
Model
pred Texas State 3.2 · actual Texas State 21
winner Texas State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Troy +14.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.8 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
UCF @ FloridaFinal 13–24
Model
pred UCF 3.3 · actual Florida 11
winner UCF ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UCF -1.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.3 · mkt 12.0 · mkt closer
Navy @ Air ForceFinal 34–7
Model
pred Navy 4.2 · actual Navy 27
winner Navy ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Air Force +10.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 22.8 · mkt 17.0 · mkt closer
Missouri @ Texas A&MFinal 10–41
Model
pred Missouri 6.2 · actual Texas A&M 31
winner Missouri ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Missouri +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 37.2 · mkt 28.5 · mkt closer
East Carolina @ CharlotteFinal 24–55
Model
pred East Carolina 7.8 · actual Charlotte 31
winner East Carolina ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Charlotte +9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 38.8 · mkt 40.5 · closer
Tennessee @ ArkansasFinal 14–19
Model
pred Tennessee 9.0 · actual Arkansas 5
winner Tennessee ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Arkansas +14.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.0 · mkt 19.0 · closer
Sam Houston @ UTEPFinal 41–21
Model
pred Sam Houston 9.4 · actual Sam Houston 20
winner Sam Houston ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UTEP +10.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.6 · mkt 10.0 · mkt closer
Ole Miss @ South CarolinaFinal 27–3
Model
pred Ole Miss 9.7 · actual Ole Miss 24
winner Ole Miss ✓
ATS vs close
leaned South Carolina +10.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.3 · mkt 14.0 · mkt closer
Indiana @ NorthwesternFinal 41–24
Model
pred Indiana 10.0 · actual Indiana 17
winner Indiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Northwestern +12.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.0 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
Miami @ CaliforniaFinal 39–38
Model
pred Miami 10.1 · actual Miami 1
winner Miami ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Miami -10.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 9.1 · mkt 9.0 · mkt closer
Army @ TulsaFinal 49–7
Model
pred Army 11.8 · actual Army 42
winner Army ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Tulsa +13.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 30.2 · mkt 28.5 · mkt closer
Clemson @ Florida StateFinal 29–13
Model
pred Clemson 11.8 · actual Clemson 16
winner Clemson ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Florida State +16.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.2 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
USC @ MinnesotaFinal 17–24
Model
pred USC 11.9 · actual Minnesota 7
winner USC ✗
ATS vs close
leaned USC -8.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.9 · mkt 15.5 · mkt closer
James Madison @ UL MonroeFinal 19–21
Model
pred James Madison 12.4 · actual UL Monroe 2
winner James Madison ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UL Monroe +16.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.4 · mkt 18.5 · closer
Virginia Tech @ StanfordFinal 31–7
Model
pred Virginia Tech 13.7 · actual Virginia Tech 24
winner Virginia Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Virginia Tech -9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.3 · mkt 14.5 · closer
Tulane @ UABFinal 71–20
Model
pred Tulane 15.8 · actual Tulane 51
winner Tulane ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UAB +19.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 35.2 · mkt 31.5 · mkt closer
Jacksonville State @ Kennesaw StateFinal 63–24
Model
pred Jacksonville State 16.6 · actual Jacksonville State 39
winner Jacksonville State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kennesaw State +17.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 22.4 · mkt 21.5 · mkt closer
Louisiana @ Southern MissFinal 23–13
Model
pred Louisiana 18.2 · actual Louisiana 10
winner Louisiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana -17.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.2 · mkt 7.5 · mkt closer
Bowling Green @ AkronFinal 27–20
Model
pred Bowling Green 19.5 · actual Bowling Green 7
winner Bowling Green ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Bowling Green -16.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.5 · mkt 9.5 · mkt closer
Alabama @ VanderbiltFinal 35–40
Model
pred Alabama 32.1 · actual Vanderbilt 5
winner Alabama ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Alabama -23.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 37.1 · mkt 28.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.