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CFB Betting Edge

2024 · Week 5 · FBS · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 5 backtest · FBS · 53 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
38–1473%
ATS vs close
28–21 · 2P57%
Model margin MAE
11.8
Market margin MAE
11.9
→ model's margins were closer than the market
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Mississippi State @ TexasFinal 13–35
Model
pred Texas 28.3 · actual Texas 22
winner Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Mississippi State +37.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.3 · mkt 15.0 · closer
Kentucky @ Ole MissFinal 20–17
Model
pred Ole Miss 24.3 · actual Kentucky 3
winner Ole Miss ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Ole Miss -15.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 27.3 · mkt 18.0 · mkt closer
Middle Tennessee @ MemphisFinal 7–24
Model
pred Memphis 24.2 · actual Memphis 17
winner Memphis ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Middle Tennessee +27.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.2 · mkt 10.0 · closer
Ball State @ James MadisonFinal 7–63
Model
pred James Madison 22.9 · actual James Madison 56
winner James Madison ✓
ATS vs close
leaned James Madison -22.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 33.1 · mkt 34.0 · closer
South Alabama @ LSUFinal 10–42
Model
pred LSU 22.3 · actual LSU 32
winner LSU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned LSU -21.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.7 · mkt 11.0 · closer
Illinois @ Penn StateFinal 7–21
Model
pred Penn State 20.5 · actual Penn State 14
winner Penn State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Penn State -19.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 6.5 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
Stanford @ ClemsonFinal 14–40
Model
pred Clemson 20.1 · actual Clemson 26
winner Clemson ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Stanford +24.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 5.9 · mkt 2.0 · mkt closer
Akron @ OhioFinal 10–30
Model
pred Ohio 18.4 · actual Ohio 20
winner Ohio ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ohio -8.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.6 · mkt 12.0 · closer
Massachusetts @ Miami (OH)Final 20–23
Model
pred Miami (OH) 17.6 · actual Miami (OH) 3
winner Miami (OH) ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Miami (OH) -15.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.6 · mkt 12.5 · mkt closer
Virginia Tech @ MiamiFinal 34–38
Model
pred Miami 14.7 · actual Miami 4
winner Miami ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Virginia Tech +17.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.7 · mkt 13.5 · closer
Western Kentucky @ Boston CollegeFinal 20–21
Model
pred Boston College 13.6 · actual Boston College 1
winner Boston College ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Boston College -7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.6 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
Florida State @ SMUFinal 16–42
Model
pred SMU 12.9 · actual SMU 26
winner SMU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned SMU -6.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 13.1 · mkt 20.0 · closer
Georgia @ AlabamaFinal 34–41
Model
pred Alabama 9.6 · actual Alabama 7
winner Alabama ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Alabama +2.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.6 · mkt 9.0 · closer
Wisconsin @ USCFinal 21–38
Model
pred USC 8.6 · actual USC 17
winner USC ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Wisconsin +13.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.4 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
UL Monroe @ TroyFinal 13–9
Model
pred Troy 8.5 · actual UL Monroe 4
winner Troy ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Troy -6.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.5 · mkt 10.0 · mkt closer
Arkansas @ Texas A&MFinal 17–21
Model
pred Texas A&M 7.9 · actual Texas A&M 4
winner Texas A&M ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas A&M -6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 3.9 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Minnesota @ MichiganFinal 24–27
Model
pred Michigan 7.8 · actual Michigan 3
winner Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Minnesota +10.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.8 · mkt 7.5 · closer
Old Dominion @ Bowling GreenFinal 30–27
Model
pred Bowling Green 7.7 · actual Old Dominion 3
winner Bowling Green ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Old Dominion +11.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.7 · mkt 14.0 · closer
Louisville @ Notre DameFinal 24–31
Model
pred Notre Dame 7.6 · actual Notre Dame 7
winner Notre Dame ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Notre Dame -6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.6 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Colorado @ UCFFinal 48–21
Model
pred UCF 7.6 · actual Colorado 27
winner UCF ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado +12.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 34.6 · mkt 39.5 · closer
Tulsa @ North TexasFinal 20–52
Model
pred North Texas 6.8 · actual North Texas 32
winner North Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Tulsa +7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 25.2 · mkt 25.0 · mkt closer
Louisiana Tech @ Florida InternationalFinal 10–17
Model
pred Florida International 6.3 · actual Florida International 7
winner Florida International ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Florida International +2.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.7 · mkt 9.0 · closer
UTSA @ East CarolinaFinal 20–30
Model
pred East Carolina 4.8 · actual East Carolina 10
winner East Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned East Carolina -2.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.2 · mkt 8.0 · closer
Washington @ RutgersFinal 18–21
Model
pred Rutgers 4.8 · actual Rutgers 3
winner Rutgers ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Rutgers -1.3Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.8 · mkt 1.7 · mkt closer
North Carolina @ DukeFinal 20–21
Model
pred Duke 4.6 · actual Duke 1
winner Duke ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Duke +1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.6 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
South Florida @ TulaneFinal 10–45
Model
pred Tulane 4.5 · actual Tulane 35
winner Tulane ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Tulane -4.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 30.5 · mkt 31.0 · closer
Western Michigan @ MarshallFinal 20–27
Model
pred Marshall 4.4 · actual Marshall 7
winner Marshall ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Marshall -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.6 · mkt 3.5 · closer
Buffalo @ UConnFinal 3–47
Model
pred UConn 4.2 · actual UConn 44
winner UConn ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Buffalo +6.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 39.8 · mkt 38.0 · mkt closer
Charlotte @ RiceFinal 21–20
Model
pred Rice 3.8 · actual Charlotte 1
winner Rice ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Charlotte +4.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.8 · mkt 5.0 · closer
Arizona @ UtahFinal 23–10
Model
pred Utah 3.7 · actual Arizona 13
winner Utah ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Arizona +7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 16.7 · mkt 20.5 · closer
Georgia Southern @ Georgia StateFinal 38–21
Model
pred Georgia State 3.6 · actual Georgia Southern 17
winner Georgia State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia State -3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.6 · mkt 20.5 · mkt closer
New Mexico @ New Mexico StateFinal 50–40
Model
pred New Mexico State 2.9 · actual New Mexico 10
winner New Mexico State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico State +9.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.9 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Cincinnati @ Texas TechFinal 41–44
Model
pred Texas Tech 2.7 · actual Texas Tech 3
winner Texas Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Cincinnati +3.0Push
margin err: model 0.3 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
San Diego State @ Central MichiganFinal 21–22
Model
pred Central Michigan 2.5 · actual Central Michigan 1
winner Central Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
model matched the close — no lean
margin err: model 1.5 · mkt 1.5 · tie
TCU @ KansasFinal 38–27
Model
pred Kansas 2.4 · actual TCU 11
winner Kansas ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Kansas -1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.4 · mkt 12.5 · mkt closer
Northern Illinois @ NC StateFinal 17–24
Model
pred NC State 1.9 · actual NC State 7
winner NC State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Northern Illinois +7.0Push
margin err: model 5.1 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
Washington State @ Boise StateFinal 24–45
Model
pred Boise State 0.8 · actual Boise State 21
winner Boise State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Washington State +6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.2 · mkt 14.5 · mkt closer
Maryland @ IndianaFinal 28–42
Model
pred Indiana 0.4 · actual Indiana 14
winner Indiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Maryland +7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.6 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
Navy @ UABFinal 41–18
Model
pred UAB 0.3 · actual Navy 23
winner UAB ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UAB +4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 23.3 · mkt 18.5 · mkt closer
Fresno State @ UNLVFinal 14–59
Model
pred Fresno State 1.7 · actual UNLV 45
winner Fresno State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Fresno State +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 46.7 · mkt 42.5 · mkt closer
BYU @ BaylorFinal 34–28
Model
pred BYU 2.5 · actual BYU 6
winner BYU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned BYU +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.5 · mkt 9.0 · closer
Oklahoma State @ Kansas StateFinal 20–42
Model
pred Oklahoma State 2.8 · actual Kansas State 22
winner Oklahoma State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma State +6.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.8 · mkt 16.0 · mkt closer
Liberty @ App StateFinal 0–0
Model
pred Liberty 3.7 · actual tie
winner Liberty · tie
ATS vs close
no closing line
Oklahoma @ AuburnFinal 27–21
Model
pred Oklahoma 6.3 · actual Oklahoma 6
winner Oklahoma ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma +2.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.3 · mkt 8.0 · closer
Air Force @ WyomingFinal 19–31
Model
pred Air Force 6.9 · actual Wyoming 12
winner Air Force ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Air Force -4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.9 · mkt 16.0 · mkt closer
Louisiana @ Wake ForestFinal 41–38
Model
pred Louisiana 7.3 · actual Louisiana 3
winner Louisiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.3 · mkt 6.0 · closer
Texas State @ Sam HoustonFinal 39–40
Model
pred Texas State 7.5 · actual Sam Houston 1
winner Texas State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Sam Houston +11.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.5 · mkt 12.0 · closer
Eastern Michigan @ Kent StateFinal 52–33
Model
pred Eastern Michigan 9.3 · actual Eastern Michigan 19
winner Eastern Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kent State +14.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 9.7 · mkt 5.0 · mkt closer
Iowa State @ HoustonFinal 20–0
Model
pred Iowa State 12.3 · actual Iowa State 20
winner Iowa State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Houston +16.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.7 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
Nebraska @ PurdueFinal 28–10
Model
pred Nebraska 14.7 · actual Nebraska 18
winner Nebraska ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Nebraska -10.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.3 · mkt 8.0 · closer
Oregon @ UCLAFinal 34–13
Model
pred Oregon 17.6 · actual Oregon 21
winner Oregon ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UCLA +23.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.4 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Army @ TempleFinal 42–14
Model
pred Army 19.0 · actual Army 28
winner Army ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Army -11.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.0 · mkt 17.0 · closer
Ohio State @ Michigan StateFinal 38–7
Model
pred Ohio State 26.7 · actual Ohio State 31
winner Ohio State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ohio State -23.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.3 · mkt 7.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.