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CFB Betting Edge

2024 · Week 4 · FBS · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 4 backtest · FBS · 54 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
34–2063%
ATS vs close
24–3044%
Model margin MAE
13.3
Market margin MAE
12.4
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Kent State @ Penn StateFinal 0–56
Model
pred Penn State 48.6 · actual Penn State 56
winner Penn State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kent State +49.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.4 · mkt 7.0 · mkt closer
UL Monroe @ TexasFinal 3–51
Model
pred Texas 36.7 · actual Texas 48
winner Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UL Monroe +43.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.3 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
Marshall @ Ohio StateFinal 14–49
Model
pred Ohio State 34.7 · actual Ohio State 35
winner Ohio State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Marshall +39.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.3 · mkt 4.0 · closer
Miami (OH) @ Notre DameFinal 3–28
Model
pred Notre Dame 32.6 · actual Notre Dame 25
winner Notre Dame ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Notre Dame -27.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.6 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Georgia Southern @ Ole MissFinal 13–52
Model
pred Ole Miss 30.5 · actual Ole Miss 39
winner Ole Miss ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia Southern +35.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.5 · mkt 4.0 · mkt closer
Bowling Green @ Texas A&MFinal 20–26
Model
pred Texas A&M 27.9 · actual Texas A&M 6
winner Texas A&M ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas A&M -21.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 21.9 · mkt 15.0 · mkt closer
Akron @ South CarolinaFinal 7–50
Model
pred South Carolina 27.1 · actual South Carolina 43
winner South Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned South Carolina -25.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 15.9 · mkt 18.0 · closer
Vanderbilt @ MissouriFinal 27–30
Model
pred Missouri 26.5 · actual Missouri 3
winner Missouri ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Missouri -18.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 23.5 · mkt 15.0 · mkt closer
Charlotte @ IndianaFinal 14–52
Model
pred Indiana 23.9 · actual Indiana 38
winner Indiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Charlotte +28.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.1 · mkt 9.5 · mkt closer
Rice @ ArmyFinal 14–37
Model
pred Army 21.1 · actual Army 23
winner Army ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Army -7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.9 · mkt 15.5 · closer
UCLA @ LSUFinal 17–34
Model
pred LSU 20.8 · actual LSU 17
winner LSU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UCLA +21.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.8 · mkt 4.5 · closer
Georgia Tech @ LouisvilleFinal 19–31
Model
pred Louisville 20.4 · actual Louisville 12
winner Louisville ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Louisville -8.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.4 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
NC State @ ClemsonFinal 35–59
Model
pred Clemson 19.6 · actual Clemson 24
winner Clemson ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Clemson -17.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.4 · mkt 6.5 · closer
Ohio @ KentuckyFinal 6–41
Model
pred Kentucky 19.0 · actual Kentucky 35
winner Kentucky ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ohio +21.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.0 · mkt 13.5 · mkt closer
Arkansas State @ Iowa StateFinal 7–52
Model
pred Iowa State 15.5 · actual Iowa State 45
winner Iowa State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arkansas State +20.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 29.5 · mkt 24.5 · mkt closer
James Madison @ North CarolinaFinal 70–50
Model
pred North Carolina 14.6 · actual James Madison 20
winner North Carolina ✗
ATS vs close
leaned North Carolina -11.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 34.6 · mkt 31.0 · mkt closer
Purdue @ Oregon StateFinal 21–38
Model
pred Oregon State 13.6 · actual Oregon State 17
winner Oregon State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State -1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.4 · mkt 15.5 · closer
East Carolina @ LibertyFinal 24–35
Model
pred Liberty 13.0 · actual Liberty 11
winner Liberty ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Liberty -7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.0 · mkt 3.5 · closer
Virginia @ Coastal CarolinaFinal 43–24
Model
pred Coastal Carolina 12.5 · actual Virginia 19
winner Coastal Carolina ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Coastal Carolina +3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 31.5 · mkt 15.5 · mkt closer
Buffalo @ Northern IllinoisFinal 23–20
Model
pred Northern Illinois 12.3 · actual Buffalo 3
winner Northern Illinois ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Buffalo +13.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 15.3 · mkt 16.0 · closer
Northwestern @ WashingtonFinal 5–24
Model
pred Washington 11.7 · actual Washington 19
winner Washington ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Northwestern +12.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.3 · mkt 7.0 · mkt closer
Tulane @ LouisianaFinal 41–33
Model
pred Louisiana 11.7 · actual Tulane 8
winner Louisiana ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana +1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.7 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
Utah @ Oklahoma StateFinal 22–19
Model
pred Oklahoma State 11.6 · actual Utah 3
winner Oklahoma State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma State +1.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.6 · mkt 2.0 · mkt closer
Illinois @ NebraskaFinal 31–24
Model
pred Nebraska 10.5 · actual Illinois 7
winner Nebraska ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Nebraska -9.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.5 · mkt 16.0 · mkt closer
Southern Miss @ Jacksonville StateFinal 7–44
Model
pred Jacksonville State 10.4 · actual Jacksonville State 37
winner Jacksonville State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Jacksonville State -6.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 26.6 · mkt 31.0 · closer
Arkansas @ AuburnFinal 24–14
Model
pred Auburn 9.0 · actual Arkansas 10
winner Auburn ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Auburn -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.0 · mkt 12.5 · mkt closer
New Mexico State @ Sam HoustonFinal 11–31
Model
pred Sam Houston 7.2 · actual Sam Houston 20
winner Sam Houston ✓
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico State +15.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.8 · mkt 5.0 · mkt closer
Michigan State @ Boston CollegeFinal 19–23
Model
pred Boston College 6.9 · actual Boston College 4
winner Boston College ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Boston College -4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 2.9 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
TCU @ SMUFinal 42–66
Model
pred SMU 6.5 · actual SMU 24
winner SMU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned SMU +1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 17.5 · mkt 25.5 · closer
Houston @ CincinnatiFinal 0–34
Model
pred Cincinnati 6.3 · actual Cincinnati 34
winner Cincinnati ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Cincinnati -4.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 27.7 · mkt 30.0 · closer
Wyoming @ North TexasFinal 17–44
Model
pred North Texas 6.1 · actual North Texas 27
winner North Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Wyoming +7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.9 · mkt 20.0 · mkt closer
Stanford @ SyracuseFinal 26–24
Model
pred Syracuse 5.4 · actual Stanford 2
winner Syracuse ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Stanford +9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.4 · mkt 11.5 · closer
Arizona State @ Texas TechFinal 22–30
Model
pred Texas Tech 3.3 · actual Texas Tech 8
winner Texas Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arizona State +4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 4.7 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
Iowa @ MinnesotaFinal 31–14
Model
pred Minnesota 3.0 · actual Iowa 17
winner Minnesota ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Minnesota +3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.0 · mkt 14.0 · mkt closer
Ball State @ Central MichiganFinal 34–37
Model
pred Central Michigan 2.4 · actual Central Michigan 3
winner Central Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ball State +6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.6 · mkt 3.5 · closer
Tulsa @ Louisiana TechFinal 23–20
Model
pred Louisiana Tech 1.5 · actual Tulsa 3
winner Louisiana Tech ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Tulsa +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.5 · mkt 5.5 · closer
UTEP @ Colorado StateFinal 17–27
Model
pred Colorado State 1.4 · actual Colorado State 10
winner Colorado State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UTEP +8.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.6 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Utah State @ TempleFinal 29–45
Model
pred Temple 1.4 · actual Temple 16
winner Temple ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Temple +6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.6 · mkt 22.5 · closer
San José State @ Washington StateFinal 52–54
Model
pred Washington State 1.0 · actual Washington State 2
winner Washington State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San José State +13.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.0 · mkt 11.0 · closer
South Alabama @ App StateFinal 48–14
Model
pred App State 0.8 · actual South Alabama 34
winner App State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned South Alabama +7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 34.8 · mkt 41.5 · closer
Rutgers @ Virginia TechFinal 26–23
Model
pred Virginia Tech 0.1 · actual Rutgers 3
winner Virginia Tech ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Rutgers +3.3Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.1 · mkt 6.3 · closer
Memphis @ NavyFinal 44–56
Model
pred Navy 0.0 · actual Navy 12
winner Navy ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Navy +8.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 12.0 · mkt 20.5 · closer
Baylor @ ColoradoFinal 31–38
Model
pred Colorado 0.0 · actual Colorado 7
winner Colorado ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Baylor +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.0 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
Kansas State @ BYUFinal 9–38
Model
pred Kansas State 1.7 · actual BYU 29
winner Kansas State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned BYU +7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 30.7 · mkt 36.5 · closer
Florida @ Mississippi StateFinal 45–28
Model
pred Florida 3.9 · actual Florida 17
winner Florida ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Mississippi State +6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.1 · mkt 10.5 · mkt closer
Kansas @ West VirginiaFinal 28–32
Model
pred Kansas 4.0 · actual West Virginia 4
winner Kansas ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Kansas +1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.0 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
California @ Florida StateFinal 9–14
Model
pred California 4.4 · actual Florida State 5
winner California ✗
ATS vs close
leaned California +3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 9.4 · mkt 2.0 · mkt closer
Tennessee @ OklahomaFinal 25–15
Model
pred Tennessee 4.9 · actual Tennessee 10
winner Tennessee ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma +6.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 5.1 · mkt 4.0 · mkt closer
Florida Atlantic @ UConnFinal 14–48
Model
pred Florida Atlantic 6.6 · actual UConn 34
winner Florida Atlantic ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Florida Atlantic +1.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 40.6 · mkt 33.0 · mkt closer
USC @ MichiganFinal 24–27
Model
pred USC 7.3 · actual Michigan 3
winner USC ✗
ATS vs close
leaned USC -4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.3 · mkt 7.0 · mkt closer
Toledo @ Western KentuckyFinal 21–26
Model
pred Toledo 10.6 · actual Western Kentucky 5
winner Toledo ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Toledo -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 15.6 · mkt 7.5 · mkt closer
Fresno State @ New MexicoFinal 38–21
Model
pred Fresno State 21.1 · actual Fresno State 17
winner Fresno State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Fresno State -12.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.1 · mkt 5.0 · closer
Miami @ South FloridaFinal 50–15
Model
pred Miami 24.2 · actual Miami 35
winner Miami ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Miami -16.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.8 · mkt 18.5 · closer
Duke @ Middle TennesseeFinal 45–17
Model
pred Duke 24.5 · actual Duke 28
winner Duke ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Duke -14.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.5 · mkt 13.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.