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2024 · Week 3 · FBS · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 3 backtest · FBS · 52 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
40–1277%
ATS vs close
26–25 · 1P51%
Model margin MAE
14.4
Market margin MAE
13.4
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Kent State @ TennesseeFinal 0–71
Model
pred Tennessee 48.9 · actual Tennessee 71
winner Tennessee ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kent State +49.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 22.1 · mkt 21.5 · mkt closer
UTSA @ TexasFinal 7–56
Model
pred Texas 30.4 · actual Texas 49
winner Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UTSA +35.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.6 · mkt 13.5 · mkt closer
Louisiana Tech @ NC StateFinal 20–30
Model
pred NC State 29.2 · actual NC State 10
winner NC State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned NC State -20.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.2 · mkt 10.5 · mkt closer
UTEP @ LibertyFinal 10–28
Model
pred Liberty 28.6 · actual Liberty 18
winner Liberty ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Liberty -23.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.6 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
UConn @ DukeFinal 21–26
Model
pred Duke 27.5 · actual Duke 5
winner Duke ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Duke -17.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 22.5 · mkt 12.0 · mkt closer
Boston College @ MissouriFinal 21–27
Model
pred Missouri 27.3 · actual Missouri 6
winner Missouri ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Missouri -14.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 21.3 · mkt 8.5 · mkt closer
New Mexico @ AuburnFinal 19–45
Model
pred Auburn 26.9 · actual Auburn 26
winner Auburn ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Auburn -25.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.9 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Ball State @ MiamiFinal 0–62
Model
pred Miami 26.3 · actual Miami 62
winner Miami ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ball State +36.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 35.7 · mkt 25.5 · mkt closer
Kennesaw State @ San José StateFinal 10–31
Model
pred San José State 26.2 · actual San José State 21
winner San José State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San José State -17.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.2 · mkt 4.0 · mkt closer
Tulane @ OklahomaFinal 19–34
Model
pred Oklahoma 23.2 · actual Oklahoma 15
winner Oklahoma ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma -13.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.2 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Central Michigan @ IllinoisFinal 9–30
Model
pred Illinois 21.7 · actual Illinois 21
winner Illinois ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Illinois -21.0Push
margin err: model 0.7 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
San Diego State @ CaliforniaFinal 10–31
Model
pred California 21.5 · actual California 21
winner California ✓
ATS vs close
leaned California -18.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.5 · mkt 2.5 · closer
North Texas @ Texas TechFinal 21–66
Model
pred Texas Tech 16.9 · actual Texas Tech 45
winner Texas Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas Tech -10.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 28.1 · mkt 34.5 · closer
Arkansas State @ MichiganFinal 18–28
Model
pred Michigan 16.5 · actual Michigan 10
winner Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arkansas State +22.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.5 · mkt 12.0 · closer
Troy @ IowaFinal 21–38
Model
pred Iowa 13.0 · actual Iowa 17
winner Iowa ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Troy +23.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.0 · mkt 6.5 · closer
UAB @ ArkansasFinal 27–37
Model
pred Arkansas 12.6 · actual Arkansas 10
winner Arkansas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UAB +23.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.6 · mkt 13.5 · closer
New Mexico State @ Fresno StateFinal 0–48
Model
pred Fresno State 10.8 · actual Fresno State 48
winner Fresno State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico State +20.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 37.2 · mkt 28.0 · mkt closer
Nevada @ MinnesotaFinal 0–27
Model
pred Minnesota 10.7 · actual Minnesota 27
winner Minnesota ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Nevada +17.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.3 · mkt 10.0 · mkt closer
App State @ East CarolinaFinal 21–19
Model
pred East Carolina 8.9 · actual App State 2
winner East Carolina ✗
ATS vs close
leaned East Carolina +1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.9 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Air Force @ BaylorFinal 3–31
Model
pred Baylor 7.7 · actual Baylor 28
winner Baylor ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Air Force +17.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.3 · mkt 11.0 · mkt closer
Rice @ HoustonFinal 7–33
Model
pred Houston 6.9 · actual Houston 26
winner Houston ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Houston -4.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 19.1 · mkt 21.5 · closer
Jacksonville State @ Eastern MichiganFinal 34–37
Model
pred Eastern Michigan 6.8 · actual Eastern Michigan 3
winner Eastern Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Eastern Michigan +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.8 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Memphis @ Florida StateFinal 20–12
Model
pred Florida State 6.3 · actual Memphis 8
winner Florida State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Memphis +7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.3 · mkt 15.0 · closer
West Virginia @ PittsburghFinal 34–38
Model
pred Pittsburgh 6.2 · actual Pittsburgh 4
winner Pittsburgh ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Pittsburgh +2.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.2 · mkt 6.0 · closer
UNLV @ KansasFinal 23–20
Model
pred Kansas 4.5 · actual UNLV 3
winner Kansas ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UNLV +9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.5 · mkt 12.5 · closer
Arizona State @ Texas StateFinal 31–28
Model
pred Texas State 4.2 · actual Arizona State 3
winner Texas State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Texas State -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.2 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
Washington State @ WashingtonFinal 24–19
Model
pred Washington 3.6 · actual Washington State 5
winner Washington ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Washington State +5.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.6 · mkt 10.5 · closer
Western Kentucky @ Middle TennesseeFinal 49–21
Model
pred Middle Tennessee 3.4 · actual Western Kentucky 28
winner Middle Tennessee ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Middle Tennessee +7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 31.4 · mkt 20.5 · mkt closer
Cincinnati @ Miami (OH)Final 27–16
Model
pred Miami (OH) 3.3 · actual Cincinnati 11
winner Miami (OH) ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Miami (OH) +3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.3 · mkt 8.0 · mkt closer
UCF @ TCUFinal 35–34
Model
pred TCU 3.2 · actual UCF 1
winner TCU ✗
ATS vs close
leaned TCU -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 4.2 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
Hawai'i @ Sam HoustonFinal 13–31
Model
pred Sam Houston 0.2 · actual Sam Houston 18
winner Sam Houston ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Hawai'i +4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.8 · mkt 14.0 · mkt closer
Florida International @ Florida AtlanticFinal 20–38
Model
pred Florida International 0.9 · actual Florida Atlantic 18
winner Florida International ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Florida International +3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.9 · mkt 14.5 · mkt closer
LSU @ South CarolinaFinal 36–33
Model
pred LSU 2.1 · actual LSU 3
winner LSU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned South Carolina +6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.9 · mkt 3.5 · closer
Arizona @ Kansas StateFinal 7–31
Model
pred Arizona 2.7 · actual Kansas State 24
winner Arizona ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Arizona +7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 26.7 · mkt 17.0 · mkt closer
Texas A&M @ FloridaFinal 33–20
Model
pred Texas A&M 4.1 · actual Texas A&M 13
winner Texas A&M ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas A&M -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.9 · mkt 9.5 · closer
Indiana @ UCLAFinal 42–13
Model
pred Indiana 4.3 · actual Indiana 29
winner Indiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Indiana -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 24.7 · mkt 25.5 · closer
Vanderbilt @ Georgia StateFinal 32–36
Model
pred Vanderbilt 5.5 · actual Georgia State 4
winner Vanderbilt ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia State +9.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.5 · mkt 13.0 · closer
Toledo @ Mississippi StateFinal 41–17
Model
pred Toledo 7.8 · actual Toledo 24
winner Toledo ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Toledo +10.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 16.2 · mkt 34.5 · closer
Oregon @ Oregon StateFinal 49–14
Model
pred Oregon 8.1 · actual Oregon 35
winner Oregon ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State +18.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 26.9 · mkt 17.0 · mkt closer
South Florida @ Southern MissFinal 49–24
Model
pred South Florida 10.8 · actual South Florida 25
winner South Florida ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Southern Miss +11.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.2 · mkt 13.5 · mkt closer
Virginia Tech @ Old DominionFinal 37–17
Model
pred Virginia Tech 14.0 · actual Virginia Tech 20
winner Virginia Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Old Dominion +15.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 6.0 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
Oklahoma State @ TulsaFinal 45–10
Model
pred Oklahoma State 14.1 · actual Oklahoma State 35
winner Oklahoma State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Tulsa +17.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.9 · mkt 17.5 · mkt closer
Colorado @ Colorado StateFinal 28–9
Model
pred Colorado 14.2 · actual Colorado 19
winner Colorado ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado -7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.8 · mkt 11.5 · closer
Massachusetts @ BuffaloFinal 3–34
Model
pred Massachusetts 14.7 · actual Buffalo 31
winner Massachusetts ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Massachusetts +3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 45.7 · mkt 27.5 · mkt closer
Maryland @ VirginiaFinal 27–13
Model
pred Maryland 14.8 · actual Maryland 14
winner Maryland ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Maryland +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.8 · mkt 16.5 · closer
Coastal Carolina @ TempleFinal 28–20
Model
pred Coastal Carolina 16.0 · actual Coastal Carolina 8
winner Coastal Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Temple +17.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.0 · mkt 9.5 · closer
BYU @ WyomingFinal 34–14
Model
pred BYU 19.0 · actual BYU 20
winner BYU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned BYU -9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.0 · mkt 10.5 · closer
Alabama @ WisconsinFinal 42–10
Model
pred Alabama 19.4 · actual Alabama 32
winner Alabama ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Alabama -15.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 12.6 · mkt 16.5 · closer
Notre Dame @ PurdueFinal 66–7
Model
pred Notre Dame 20.4 · actual Notre Dame 59
winner Notre Dame ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Notre Dame -7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 38.6 · mkt 51.5 · closer
Ole Miss @ Wake ForestFinal 40–6
Model
pred Ole Miss 21.3 · actual Ole Miss 34
winner Ole Miss ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ole Miss -20.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 12.7 · mkt 13.5 · closer
Utah @ Utah StateFinal 38–21
Model
pred Utah 23.7 · actual Utah 17
winner Utah ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Utah -20.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 6.7 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
Georgia @ KentuckyFinal 13–12
Model
pred Georgia 24.7 · actual Georgia 1
winner Georgia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia -22.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 23.7 · mkt 21.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.