CFB
›

CFB Betting Edge

2024 · Week 2 · FBS · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS IndependentsBig SkyMVFC
Season202620252024
Week123456789101112131415
Week 2 backtest · FBS · 51 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
34–1767%
ATS vs close
24–26 · 1P48%
Model margin MAE
14.2
Market margin MAE
12.7
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Western Michigan @ Ohio StateFinal 0–56
Model
pred Ohio State 44.9 · actual Ohio State 56
winner Ohio State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ohio State -37.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 11.1 · mkt 18.5 · closer
Buffalo @ MissouriFinal 0–38
Model
pred Missouri 42.2 · actual Missouri 38
winner Missouri ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Missouri -34.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.2 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
Bowling Green @ Penn StateFinal 27–34
Model
pred Penn State 41.9 · actual Penn State 7
winner Penn State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Penn State -35.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 34.9 · mkt 28.0 · mkt closer
Eastern Michigan @ WashingtonFinal 9–30
Model
pred Washington 40.9 · actual Washington 21
winner Washington ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Washington -25.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.9 · mkt 4.0 · mkt closer
Northern Illinois @ Notre DameFinal 16–14
Model
pred Notre Dame 34.4 · actual Northern Illinois 2
winner Notre Dame ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Notre Dame -28.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 36.4 · mkt 30.0 · mkt closer
South Florida @ AlabamaFinal 16–42
Model
pred Alabama 30.5 · actual Alabama 26
winner Alabama ✓
ATS vs close
leaned South Florida +31.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.5 · mkt 5.0 · closer
Sam Houston @ UCFFinal 14–45
Model
pred UCF 27.8 · actual UCF 31
winner UCF ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UCF -21.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.2 · mkt 9.5 · closer
Charlotte @ North CarolinaFinal 20–38
Model
pred North Carolina 27.5 · actual North Carolina 18
winner North Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned North Carolina -21.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 9.5 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
Utah State @ USCFinal 0–48
Model
pred USC 26.2 · actual USC 48
winner USC ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Utah State +29.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 21.8 · mkt 18.5 · mkt closer
Middle Tennessee @ Ole MissFinal 3–52
Model
pred Ole Miss 24.6 · actual Ole Miss 49
winner Ole Miss ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Middle Tennessee +42.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.4 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
Boise State @ OregonFinal 34–37
Model
pred Oregon 21.8 · actual Oregon 3
winner Oregon ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon -18.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.8 · mkt 15.0 · mkt closer
App State @ ClemsonFinal 20–66
Model
pred Clemson 21.4 · actual Clemson 46
winner Clemson ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Clemson -16.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 24.6 · mkt 29.5 · closer
Houston @ OklahomaFinal 12–16
Model
pred Oklahoma 20.7 · actual Oklahoma 4
winner Oklahoma ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Houston +27.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 16.7 · mkt 23.5 · closer
Akron @ RutgersFinal 17–49
Model
pred Rutgers 20.3 · actual Rutgers 32
winner Rutgers ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Akron +24.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.7 · mkt 7.5 · mkt closer
Marshall @ Virginia TechFinal 14–31
Model
pred Virginia Tech 20.1 · actual Virginia Tech 17
winner Virginia Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Marshall +20.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.1 · mkt 3.5 · closer
Jacksonville State @ LouisvilleFinal 14–49
Model
pred Louisville 16.8 · actual Louisville 35
winner Louisville ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Jacksonville State +29.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.2 · mkt 6.0 · mkt closer
Colorado @ NebraskaFinal 10–28
Model
pred Nebraska 15.5 · actual Nebraska 18
winner Nebraska ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Nebraska -6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.5 · mkt 11.5 · closer
Massachusetts @ ToledoFinal 23–38
Model
pred Toledo 15.4 · actual Toledo 15
winner Toledo ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Massachusetts +17.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.4 · mkt 2.5 · closer
BYU @ SMUFinal 18–15
Model
pred SMU 15.3 · actual BYU 3
winner SMU ✗
ATS vs close
leaned SMU -12.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.3 · mkt 15.5 · mkt closer
Michigan State @ MarylandFinal 27–24
Model
pred Maryland 14.3 · actual Michigan State 3
winner Maryland ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Maryland -8.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.3 · mkt 11.0 · mkt closer
South Carolina @ KentuckyFinal 31–6
Model
pred Kentucky 14.2 · actual South Carolina 25
winner Kentucky ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Kentucky -9.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 39.2 · mkt 34.5 · mkt closer
Temple @ NavyFinal 11–38
Model
pred Navy 11.1 · actual Navy 27
winner Navy ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Temple +11.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 15.9 · mkt 15.5 · mkt closer
San José State @ Air ForceFinal 17–7
Model
pred Air Force 10.9 · actual San José State 10
winner Air Force ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Air Force -3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.9 · mkt 13.0 · mkt closer
California @ AuburnFinal 21–14
Model
pred Auburn 9.1 · actual California 7
winner Auburn ✗
ATS vs close
leaned California +12.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 16.1 · mkt 19.5 · closer
Arkansas @ Oklahoma StateFinal 31–39
Model
pred Oklahoma State 8.9 · actual Oklahoma State 8
winner Oklahoma State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arkansas +10.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.9 · mkt 2.0 · closer
Sacramento State @ Fresno StateFinal 30–46
Model
pred Fresno State 8.5 · actual Fresno State 16
winner Fresno State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Sacramento State +18.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.5 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Missouri State @ Ball StateFinal 34–42
Model
pred Ball State 8.5 · actual Ball State 8
winner Ball State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ball State -2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.5 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Baylor @ UtahFinal 12–23
Model
pred Utah 8.4 · actual Utah 11
winner Utah ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Baylor +14.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.6 · mkt 3.5 · closer
Tulsa @ Arkansas StateFinal 24–28
Model
pred Arkansas State 8.0 · actual Arkansas State 4
winner Arkansas State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Tulsa +9.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.0 · mkt 5.0 · closer
Troy @ MemphisFinal 17–38
Model
pred Memphis 7.9 · actual Memphis 21
winner Memphis ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Troy +18.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.1 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Mississippi State @ Arizona StateFinal 23–30
Model
pred Arizona State 5.2 · actual Arizona State 7
winner Arizona State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Mississippi State +6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 1.8 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Pittsburgh @ CincinnatiFinal 28–27
Model
pred Cincinnati 5.2 · actual Pittsburgh 1
winner Cincinnati ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Cincinnati -2.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 6.2 · mkt 3.0 · mkt closer
Louisiana @ Kennesaw StateFinal 34–10
Model
pred Kennesaw State 5.0 · actual Louisiana 24
winner Kennesaw State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Kennesaw State +14.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 29.0 · mkt 9.5 · mkt closer
Virginia @ Wake ForestFinal 31–30
Model
pred Wake Forest 3.7 · actual Virginia 1
winner Wake Forest ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Wake Forest +1.0Push
margin err: model 4.7 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
Army @ Florida AtlanticFinal 24–7
Model
pred Florida Atlantic 2.0 · actual Army 17
winner Florida Atlantic ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Florida Atlantic -1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.0 · mkt 18.5 · mkt closer
Iowa State @ IowaFinal 20–19
Model
pred Iowa 2.0 · actual Iowa State 1
winner Iowa ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa State +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.0 · mkt 4.0 · closer
Georgia Tech @ SyracuseFinal 28–31
Model
pred Syracuse 1.9 · actual Syracuse 3
winner Syracuse ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Syracuse +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.1 · mkt 6.0 · closer
Texas @ MichiganFinal 31–12
Model
pred Texas 1.2 · actual Texas 19
winner Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Michigan +6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.8 · mkt 12.5 · mkt closer
East Carolina @ Old DominionFinal 20–14
Model
pred East Carolina 2.7 · actual East Carolina 6
winner East Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned East Carolina +1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.3 · mkt 7.5 · closer
Georgia Southern @ NevadaFinal 20–17
Model
pred Georgia Southern 3.0 · actual Georgia Southern 3
winner Georgia Southern ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia Southern +1.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.0 · mkt 4.0 · closer
Central Michigan @ Florida InternationalFinal 16–52
Model
pred Central Michigan 3.1 · actual Florida International 36
winner Central Michigan ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Florida International +3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 39.1 · mkt 39.5 · closer
UTSA @ Texas StateFinal 10–49
Model
pred UTSA 4.1 · actual Texas State 39
winner UTSA ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UTSA +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 43.1 · mkt 36.5 · mkt closer
Kansas @ IllinoisFinal 17–23
Model
pred Kansas 4.9 · actual Illinois 6
winner Kansas ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Kansas -4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.9 · mkt 10.5 · mkt closer
Duke @ NorthwesternFinal 26–20
Model
pred Duke 5.6 · actual Duke 6
winner Duke ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Duke +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.4 · mkt 8.5 · closer
South Alabama @ OhioFinal 20–27
Model
pred South Alabama 6.2 · actual Ohio 7
winner South Alabama ✗
ATS vs close
leaned South Alabama -1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.2 · mkt 8.5 · mkt closer
Texas Tech @ Washington StateFinal 16–37
Model
pred Texas Tech 6.3 · actual Washington State 21
winner Texas Tech ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Texas Tech -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 27.3 · mkt 23.5 · mkt closer
Tennessee @ NC StateFinal 51–10
Model
pred Tennessee 6.5 · actual Tennessee 41
winner Tennessee ✓
ATS vs close
leaned NC State +10.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 34.5 · mkt 31.0 · mkt closer
Kansas State @ TulaneFinal 34–27
Model
pred Kansas State 8.5 · actual Kansas State 7
winner Kansas State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Tulane +9.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.5 · mkt 2.0 · closer
Liberty @ New Mexico StateFinal 30–24
Model
pred Liberty 10.6 · actual Liberty 6
winner Liberty ✓
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico State +22.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.6 · mkt 16.0 · closer
UAB @ UL MonroeFinal 6–32
Model
pred UAB 12.0 · actual UL Monroe 26
winner UAB ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UAB -11.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 38.0 · mkt 37.0 · mkt closer
Oregon State @ San Diego StateFinal 21–0
Model
pred Oregon State 15.8 · actual Oregon State 21
winner Oregon State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State -5.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.2 · mkt 15.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.