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CFB Betting Edge

2024 · Week 15 · FBS · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 15 backtest · FBS · 9 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
4–544%
ATS vs close
3–633%
Model margin MAE
21.4
Market margin MAE
20.6
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Marshall @ LouisianaFinal 31–3
Model
pred Louisiana 10.4 · actual Marshall 28
winner Louisiana ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana -5.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 38.4 · mkt 33.0 · mkt closer
UNLV @ Boise StateFinal 7–21
Model
pred Boise State 8.8 · actual Boise State 14
winner Boise State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Boise State -4.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.2 · mkt 10.0 · closer
Ohio @ Miami (OH)Final 38–3
Model
pred Miami (OH) 6.1 · actual Ohio 35
winner Miami (OH) ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Miami (OH) -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 41.1 · mkt 37.5 · mkt closer
Georgia @ TexasFinal 22–19
Model
pred Texas 4.6 · actual Georgia 3
winner Texas ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Texas -3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.6 · mkt 6.0 · mkt closer
Tulane @ ArmyFinal 14–35
Model
pred Army 4.5 · actual Army 21
winner Army ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Army +5.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 16.5 · mkt 26.0 · closer
Western Kentucky @ Jacksonville StateFinal 12–52
Model
pred Jacksonville State 4.3 · actual Jacksonville State 40
winner Jacksonville State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Western Kentucky +4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 35.7 · mkt 35.5 · mkt closer
Clemson @ SMUFinal 34–31
Model
pred Clemson 1.9 · actual Clemson 3
winner Clemson ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Clemson +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.1 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Iowa State @ Arizona StateFinal 19–45
Model
pred Iowa State 3.4 · actual Arizona State 26
winner Iowa State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa State -1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 29.4 · mkt 27.5 · mkt closer
Penn State @ OregonFinal 37–45
Model
pred Penn State 9.2 · actual Oregon 8
winner Penn State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Penn State +3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.2 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.