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2024 · Week 14 · FBS · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 14 backtest · FBS · 67 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
47–2070%
ATS vs close
32–33 · 2P49%
Model margin MAE
12.9
Market margin MAE
11.7
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Maryland @ Penn StateFinal 7–44
Model
pred Penn State 29.3 · actual Penn State 37
winner Penn State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Penn State -26.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.7 · mkt 11.0 · closer
Mississippi State @ Ole MissFinal 14–26
Model
pred Ole Miss 17.6 · actual Ole Miss 12
winner Ole Miss ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Mississippi State +26.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.6 · mkt 14.0 · closer
Kent State @ BuffaloFinal 7–43
Model
pred Buffalo 16.6 · actual Buffalo 36
winner Buffalo ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kent State +23.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.4 · mkt 12.5 · mkt closer
Washington @ OregonFinal 21–49
Model
pred Oregon 16.4 · actual Oregon 28
winner Oregon ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Washington +17.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.6 · mkt 10.5 · mkt closer
Kennesaw State @ Louisiana TechFinal 0–33
Model
pred Louisiana Tech 16.2 · actual Louisiana Tech 33
winner Louisiana Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana Tech -10.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 16.8 · mkt 22.5 · closer
Auburn @ AlabamaFinal 14–28
Model
pred Alabama 15.8 · actual Alabama 14
winner Alabama ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Alabama -11.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.8 · mkt 3.0 · closer
Southern Miss @ TroyFinal 20–52
Model
pred Troy 15.6 · actual Troy 32
winner Troy ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Southern Miss +17.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.4 · mkt 14.5 · mkt closer
Purdue @ IndianaFinal 0–66
Model
pred Indiana 15.5 · actual Indiana 66
winner Indiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Purdue +28.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 50.5 · mkt 37.5 · mkt closer
South Carolina @ ClemsonFinal 17–14
Model
pred Clemson 15.2 · actual South Carolina 3
winner Clemson ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Clemson -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.2 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
Georgia Tech @ GeorgiaFinal 42–44
Model
pred Georgia 15.0 · actual Georgia 2
winner Georgia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia Tech +17.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 13.0 · mkt 15.5 · closer
Wyoming @ Washington StateFinal 15–14
Model
pred Washington State 14.7 · actual Wyoming 1
winner Washington State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Wyoming +18.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 15.7 · mkt 19.5 · closer
Ball State @ OhioFinal 21–42
Model
pred Ohio 14.2 · actual Ohio 21
winner Ohio ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ball State +17.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 6.8 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
Virginia @ Virginia TechFinal 17–37
Model
pred Virginia Tech 13.7 · actual Virginia Tech 20
winner Virginia Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Virginia Tech -4.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.3 · mkt 15.5 · closer
Oregon State @ Boise StateFinal 18–34
Model
pred Boise State 13.7 · actual Boise State 16
winner Boise State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State +17.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.3 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Michigan @ Ohio StateFinal 13–10
Model
pred Ohio State 12.6 · actual Michigan 3
winner Ohio State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Michigan +20.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 15.6 · mkt 23.0 · closer
Arkansas @ MissouriFinal 21–28
Model
pred Missouri 12.6 · actual Missouri 7
winner Missouri ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Missouri -3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.6 · mkt 4.0 · mkt closer
Kansas State @ Iowa StateFinal 21–29
Model
pred Iowa State 11.2 · actual Iowa State 8
winner Iowa State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa State -2.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.2 · mkt 6.0 · closer
Houston @ BYUFinal 18–30
Model
pred BYU 11.0 · actual BYU 12
winner BYU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Houston +12.0Push
margin err: model 1.0 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
NC State @ North CarolinaFinal 35–30
Model
pred North Carolina 10.0 · actual NC State 5
winner North Carolina ✗
ATS vs close
leaned North Carolina -2.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 15.0 · mkt 7.0 · mkt closer
Nevada @ UNLVFinal 14–38
Model
pred UNLV 10.0 · actual UNLV 24
winner UNLV ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Nevada +17.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.0 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
Nebraska @ IowaFinal 10–13
Model
pred Iowa 9.3 · actual Iowa 3
winner Iowa ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa -3.0Push
margin err: model 6.3 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
UTSA @ ArmyFinal 24–29
Model
pred Army 9.2 · actual Army 5
winner Army ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Army -6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 4.2 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Central Michigan @ Northern IllinoisFinal 16–24
Model
pred Northern Illinois 9.2 · actual Northern Illinois 8
winner Northern Illinois ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Central Michigan +13.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.2 · mkt 5.5 · closer
California @ SMUFinal 6–38
Model
pred SMU 8.5 · actual SMU 32
winner SMU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned California +12.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 23.5 · mkt 19.5 · mkt closer
Pittsburgh @ Boston CollegeFinal 23–34
Model
pred Boston College 7.4 · actual Boston College 11
winner Boston College ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Boston College -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.6 · mkt 7.5 · closer
Eastern Michigan @ Western MichiganFinal 18–26
Model
pred Western Michigan 7.0 · actual Western Michigan 8
winner Western Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Western Michigan -6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.0 · mkt 1.5 · closer
Marshall @ James MadisonFinal 35–33
Model
pred James Madison 6.9 · actual Marshall 2
winner James Madison ✗
ATS vs close
leaned James Madison -3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.9 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
UTEP @ New Mexico StateFinal 42–35
Model
pred New Mexico State 6.9 · actual UTEP 7
winner New Mexico State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico State -3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.9 · mkt 10.5 · mkt closer
Utah State @ Colorado StateFinal 37–42
Model
pred Colorado State 6.8 · actual Colorado State 5
winner Colorado State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado State -5.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 1.8 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Old Dominion @ Arkansas StateFinal 40–32
Model
pred Arkansas State 6.5 · actual Old Dominion 8
winner Arkansas State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Arkansas State +5.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.5 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Oklahoma @ LSUFinal 17–37
Model
pred LSU 4.9 · actual LSU 20
winner LSU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma +6.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 15.1 · mkt 14.0 · mkt closer
Minnesota @ WisconsinFinal 24–7
Model
pred Wisconsin 4.8 · actual Minnesota 17
winner Wisconsin ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Wisconsin +1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 21.8 · mkt 15.5 · mkt closer
Arizona State @ ArizonaFinal 49–7
Model
pred Arizona 4.4 · actual Arizona State 42
winner Arizona ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Arizona +7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 46.4 · mkt 34.5 · mkt closer
Stanford @ San José StateFinal 31–34
Model
pred San José State 4.3 · actual San José State 3
winner San José State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San José State -2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.3 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
New Mexico @ Hawai'iFinal 30–38
Model
pred Hawai'i 4.0 · actual Hawai'i 8
winner Hawai'i ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Hawai'i +6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.0 · mkt 14.5 · closer
Middle Tennessee @ Florida InternationalFinal 24–35
Model
pred Florida International 3.6 · actual Florida International 11
winner Florida International ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Middle Tennessee +9.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.4 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Memphis @ TulaneFinal 34–24
Model
pred Tulane 3.4 · actual Memphis 10
winner Tulane ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Memphis +12.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 13.4 · mkt 22.5 · closer
Navy @ East CarolinaFinal 34–20
Model
pred East Carolina 2.7 · actual Navy 14
winner East Carolina ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Navy +2.8Cover ✓
margin err: model 16.7 · mkt 16.8 · closer
West Virginia @ Texas TechFinal 15–52
Model
pred Texas Tech 2.6 · actual Texas Tech 37
winner Texas Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas Tech -2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 34.4 · mkt 34.5 · closer
Fresno State @ UCLAFinal 13–20
Model
pred UCLA 2.3 · actual UCLA 7
winner UCLA ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Fresno State +7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.7 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Utah @ UCFFinal 28–14
Model
pred UCF 1.4 · actual Utah 14
winner UCF ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Utah +10.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 15.4 · mkt 24.0 · closer
Florida Atlantic @ TulsaFinal 63–16
Model
pred Tulsa 0.2 · actual Florida Atlantic 47
winner Tulsa ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Florida Atlantic +1.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 47.2 · mkt 48.0 · closer
App State @ Georgia SouthernFinal 20–29
Model
pred Georgia Southern 0.2 · actual Georgia Southern 9
winner Georgia Southern ✓
ATS vs close
leaned App State +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.8 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
Jacksonville State @ Western KentuckyFinal 17–19
Model
pred Western Kentucky 0.1 · actual Western Kentucky 2
winner Western Kentucky ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Western Kentucky +0.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.9 · mkt 2.5 · closer
Oklahoma State @ ColoradoFinal 0–52
Model
pred Oklahoma State 0.2 · actual Colorado 52
winner Oklahoma State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma State +15.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 52.2 · mkt 37.0 · mkt closer
Louisville @ KentuckyFinal 41–14
Model
pred Louisville 0.6 · actual Louisville 27
winner Louisville ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kentucky +4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 26.4 · mkt 23.0 · mkt closer
Air Force @ San Diego StateFinal 31–20
Model
pred Air Force 0.8 · actual Air Force 11
winner Air Force ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San Diego State +6.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.2 · mkt 5.0 · mkt closer
Texas State @ South AlabamaFinal 45–38
Model
pred Texas State 1.4 · actual Texas State 7
winner Texas State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned South Alabama +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 5.6 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
Miami (OH) @ Bowling GreenFinal 28–12
Model
pred Miami (OH) 1.7 · actual Miami (OH) 16
winner Miami (OH) ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Miami (OH) +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.3 · mkt 19.0 · closer
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia StateFinal 48–27
Model
pred Coastal Carolina 2.2 · actual Coastal Carolina 21
winner Coastal Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Coastal Carolina +0.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 18.8 · mkt 21.5 · closer
UAB @ CharlotteFinal 27–29
Model
pred UAB 2.9 · actual Charlotte 2
winner UAB ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UAB +1.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 4.9 · mkt 1.0 · mkt closer
Illinois @ NorthwesternFinal 38–28
Model
pred Illinois 3.9 · actual Illinois 10
winner Illinois ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Northwestern +9.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 6.1 · mkt 1.0 · mkt closer
Texas @ Texas A&MFinal 17–7
Model
pred Texas 4.1 · actual Texas 10
winner Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas A&M +4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 5.9 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
Liberty @ Sam HoustonFinal 18–20
Model
pred Liberty 4.6 · actual Sam Houston 2
winner Liberty ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Liberty -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 6.6 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
Rutgers @ Michigan StateFinal 41–14
Model
pred Rutgers 5.3 · actual Rutgers 27
winner Rutgers ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Rutgers +1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 21.7 · mkt 28.5 · closer
TCU @ CincinnatiFinal 20–13
Model
pred TCU 6.5 · actual TCU 7
winner TCU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned TCU -2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.5 · mkt 4.5 · closer
Florida @ Florida StateFinal 31–11
Model
pred Florida 7.1 · actual Florida 20
winner Florida ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Florida State +17.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.9 · mkt 3.0 · mkt closer
Kansas @ BaylorFinal 17–45
Model
pred Kansas 7.7 · actual Baylor 28
winner Kansas ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Kansas -1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 35.7 · mkt 29.5 · mkt closer
North Texas @ TempleFinal 24–17
Model
pred North Texas 8.4 · actual North Texas 7
winner North Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Temple +11.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.4 · mkt 4.0 · closer
South Florida @ RiceFinal 28–35
Model
pred South Florida 9.3 · actual Rice 7
winner South Florida ✗
ATS vs close
leaned South Florida -5.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.3 · mkt 12.5 · mkt closer
UConn @ MassachusettsFinal 47–42
Model
pred UConn 10.8 · actual UConn 5
winner UConn ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UConn -9.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 5.8 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
Notre Dame @ USCFinal 49–35
Model
pred Notre Dame 11.4 · actual Notre Dame 14
winner Notre Dame ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Notre Dame -7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.6 · mkt 7.0 · closer
Miami @ SyracuseFinal 38–42
Model
pred Miami 12.4 · actual Syracuse 4
winner Miami ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Miami -12.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.4 · mkt 16.0 · mkt closer
Duke @ Wake ForestFinal 23–17
Model
pred Duke 13.4 · actual Duke 6
winner Duke ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Duke -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.4 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Louisiana @ UL MonroeFinal 37–23
Model
pred Louisiana 15.0 · actual Louisiana 14
winner Louisiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana -8.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.0 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Tennessee @ VanderbiltFinal 36–23
Model
pred Tennessee 16.2 · actual Tennessee 13
winner Tennessee ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Tennessee -9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.2 · mkt 3.5 · closer
Toledo @ AkronFinal 14–21
Model
pred Toledo 17.8 · actual Akron 7
winner Toledo ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Toledo -9.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.8 · mkt 16.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.