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2024 · Week 13 · FBS · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 13 backtest · FBS · 62 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
39–2363%
ATS vs close
32–3052%
Model margin MAE
12.6
Market margin MAE
12.1
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Massachusetts @ GeorgiaFinal 21–59
Model
pred Georgia 43.0 · actual Georgia 38
winner Georgia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia -42.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 5.0 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
UTEP @ TennesseeFinal 0–56
Model
pred Tennessee 39.7 · actual Tennessee 56
winner Tennessee ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UTEP +41.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.3 · mkt 14.5 · mkt closer
Vanderbilt @ LSUFinal 17–24
Model
pred LSU 21.3 · actual LSU 7
winner LSU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned LSU -9.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.3 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Kentucky @ TexasFinal 14–31
Model
pred Texas 20.0 · actual Texas 17
winner Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas -18.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 3.0 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Army @ Notre DameFinal 14–49
Model
pred Notre Dame 18.9 · actual Notre Dame 35
winner Notre Dame ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Notre Dame -14.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 16.1 · mkt 20.5 · closer
Wake Forest @ MiamiFinal 14–42
Model
pred Miami 18.3 · actual Miami 28
winner Miami ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Wake Forest +23.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 9.7 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
Temple @ UTSAFinal 27–51
Model
pred UTSA 18.0 · actual UTSA 24
winner UTSA ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UTSA -16.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.0 · mkt 7.5 · closer
Northwestern @ MichiganFinal 6–50
Model
pred Michigan 16.6 · actual Michigan 44
winner Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Michigan -10.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 27.4 · mkt 33.5 · closer
Stanford @ CaliforniaFinal 21–24
Model
pred California 15.8 · actual California 3
winner California ✓
ATS vs close
leaned California -15.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.8 · mkt 12.0 · mkt closer
Cincinnati @ Kansas StateFinal 15–41
Model
pred Kansas State 15.3 · actual Kansas State 26
winner Kansas State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kansas State -7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.7 · mkt 18.5 · closer
Louisiana Tech @ ArkansasFinal 14–35
Model
pred Arkansas 15.3 · actual Arkansas 21
winner Arkansas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana Tech +23.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.7 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Indiana @ Ohio StateFinal 15–38
Model
pred Ohio State 14.3 · actual Ohio State 23
winner Ohio State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ohio State -10.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.7 · mkt 12.5 · closer
Georgia State @ Texas StateFinal 52–44
Model
pred Texas State 14.2 · actual Georgia State 8
winner Texas State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia State +23.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 22.2 · mkt 31.0 · closer
NC State @ Georgia TechFinal 29–30
Model
pred Georgia Tech 12.9 · actual Georgia Tech 1
winner Georgia Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia Tech -7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.9 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
Ohio @ ToledoFinal 24–7
Model
pred Toledo 12.3 · actual Ohio 17
winner Toledo ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Toledo -1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 29.3 · mkt 18.5 · mkt closer
Tulsa @ South FloridaFinal 30–63
Model
pred South Florida 10.8 · actual South Florida 33
winner South Florida ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Tulsa +17.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 22.2 · mkt 16.0 · mkt closer
Sam Houston @ Jacksonville StateFinal 11–21
Model
pred Jacksonville State 10.7 · actual Jacksonville State 10
winner Jacksonville State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Jacksonville State -5.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.7 · mkt 4.5 · closer
UL Monroe @ Arkansas StateFinal 21–28
Model
pred Arkansas State 10.4 · actual Arkansas State 7
winner Arkansas State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arkansas State -3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.4 · mkt 4.0 · closer
Colorado State @ Fresno StateFinal 22–28
Model
pred Fresno State 10.2 · actual Fresno State 6
winner Fresno State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Fresno State -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.2 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Troy @ LouisianaFinal 30–51
Model
pred Louisiana 9.6 · actual Louisiana 21
winner Louisiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana -7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 11.4 · mkt 13.5 · closer
UConn @ SyracuseFinal 24–31
Model
pred Syracuse 7.6 · actual Syracuse 7
winner Syracuse ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UConn +10.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.6 · mkt 3.0 · closer
Western Kentucky @ LibertyFinal 21–38
Model
pred Liberty 6.9 · actual Liberty 17
winner Liberty ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Liberty -1.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.1 · mkt 16.0 · closer
Charlotte @ Florida AtlanticFinal 39–27
Model
pred Florida Atlantic 6.9 · actual Charlotte 12
winner Florida Atlantic ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Florida Atlantic +3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.9 · mkt 9.0 · mkt closer
Purdue @ Michigan StateFinal 17–24
Model
pred Michigan State 6.7 · actual Michigan State 7
winner Michigan State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Purdue +14.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.3 · mkt 7.0 · closer
Georgia Southern @ Coastal CarolinaFinal 26–6
Model
pred Coastal Carolina 5.2 · actual Georgia Southern 20
winner Coastal Carolina ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Coastal Carolina -2.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 25.2 · mkt 22.0 · mkt closer
Buffalo @ Eastern MichiganFinal 37–20
Model
pred Eastern Michigan 5.0 · actual Buffalo 17
winner Eastern Michigan ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Eastern Michigan -1.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 22.0 · mkt 18.0 · mkt closer
New Mexico State @ Middle TennesseeFinal 36–21
Model
pred Middle Tennessee 4.6 · actual New Mexico State 15
winner Middle Tennessee ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Middle Tennessee -3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.6 · mkt 18.5 · mkt closer
UCF @ West VirginiaFinal 21–31
Model
pred West Virginia 4.4 · actual West Virginia 10
winner West Virginia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned West Virginia +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.6 · mkt 13.0 · closer
San Diego State @ Utah StateFinal 20–41
Model
pred Utah State 3.7 · actual Utah State 21
winner Utah State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San Diego State +5.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.3 · mkt 16.0 · mkt closer
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma StateFinal 56–48
Model
pred Oklahoma State 3.2 · actual Texas Tech 8
winner Oklahoma State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma State +5.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.2 · mkt 3.0 · mkt closer
Pittsburgh @ LouisvilleFinal 9–37
Model
pred Louisville 3.0 · actual Louisville 28
winner Louisville ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Pittsburgh +7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 25.0 · mkt 20.5 · mkt closer
Arizona @ TCUFinal 28–49
Model
pred TCU 2.9 · actual TCU 21
winner TCU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arizona +10.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.1 · mkt 10.5 · mkt closer
Northern Illinois @ Miami (OH)Final 9–20
Model
pred Miami (OH) 2.8 · actual Miami (OH) 11
winner Miami (OH) ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Miami (OH) -1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.2 · mkt 9.5 · closer
Marshall @ Old DominionFinal 42–35
Model
pred Old Dominion 2.8 · actual Marshall 7
winner Old Dominion ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Marshall +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.8 · mkt 10.0 · closer
Akron @ Kent StateFinal 38–17
Model
pred Kent State 2.5 · actual Akron 21
winner Kent State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Kent State +10.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 23.5 · mkt 10.5 · mkt closer
Illinois @ RutgersFinal 38–31
Model
pred Rutgers 2.0 · actual Illinois 7
winner Rutgers ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Illinois +2.3Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.0 · mkt 9.3 · closer
East Carolina @ North TexasFinal 40–28
Model
pred North Texas 1.1 · actual East Carolina 12
winner North Texas ✗
ATS vs close
leaned East Carolina +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 13.1 · mkt 14.5 · closer
BYU @ Arizona StateFinal 23–28
Model
pred Arizona State 0.6 · actual Arizona State 5
winner Arizona State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned BYU +3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 4.4 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Wisconsin @ NebraskaFinal 25–44
Model
pred Wisconsin 0.2 · actual Nebraska 19
winner Wisconsin ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Wisconsin +1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.2 · mkt 17.5 · mkt closer
Virginia Tech @ DukeFinal 28–31
Model
pred Virginia Tech 0.3 · actual Duke 3
winner Virginia Tech ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Duke +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.3 · mkt 5.5 · closer
UNLV @ San José StateFinal 27–16
Model
pred UNLV 0.9 · actual UNLV 11
winner UNLV ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San José State +7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.1 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
Baylor @ HoustonFinal 20–10
Model
pred Baylor 1.5 · actual Baylor 10
winner Baylor ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Houston +7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.5 · mkt 3.0 · mkt closer
Air Force @ NevadaFinal 22–19
Model
pred Air Force 1.9 · actual Air Force 3
winner Air Force ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Air Force +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.1 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Washington State @ Oregon StateFinal 38–41
Model
pred Washington State 2.3 · actual Oregon State 3
winner Washington State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State +11.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.3 · mkt 14.0 · closer
James Madison @ App StateFinal 20–34
Model
pred James Madison 2.6 · actual App State 14
winner James Madison ✗
ATS vs close
leaned App State +7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 16.6 · mkt 21.0 · closer
Iowa @ MarylandFinal 29–13
Model
pred Iowa 2.7 · actual Iowa 16
winner Iowa ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Maryland +4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.3 · mkt 12.0 · mkt closer
Iowa State @ UtahFinal 31–28
Model
pred Iowa State 3.7 · actual Iowa State 3
winner Iowa State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Utah +6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.7 · mkt 3.5 · closer
Texas A&M @ AuburnFinal 41–43
Model
pred Texas A&M 3.7 · actual Auburn 2
winner Texas A&M ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Texas A&M -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 5.7 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
USC @ UCLAFinal 19–13
Model
pred USC 5.6 · actual USC 6
winner USC ✓
ATS vs close
leaned USC -4.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.4 · mkt 1.5 · closer
Western Michigan @ Central MichiganFinal 14–16
Model
pred Western Michigan 5.7 · actual Central Michigan 2
winner Western Michigan ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Central Michigan +6.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.7 · mkt 8.0 · closer
Colorado @ KansasFinal 21–37
Model
pred Colorado 6.2 · actual Kansas 16
winner Colorado ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado -1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 22.2 · mkt 17.5 · mkt closer
Rice @ UABFinal 14–40
Model
pred Rice 6.3 · actual UAB 26
winner Rice ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UAB +7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 32.3 · mkt 33.0 · closer
North Carolina @ Boston CollegeFinal 21–41
Model
pred North Carolina 9.2 · actual Boston College 20
winner North Carolina ✗
ATS vs close
leaned North Carolina -2.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 29.2 · mkt 22.0 · mkt closer
Florida International @ Kennesaw StateFinal 26–27
Model
pred Florida International 9.3 · actual Kennesaw State 1
winner Florida International ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Florida International -9.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.3 · mkt 10.0 · mkt closer
Alabama @ OklahomaFinal 3–24
Model
pred Alabama 10.5 · actual Oklahoma 21
winner Alabama ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma +14.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 31.5 · mkt 35.0 · closer
Bowling Green @ Ball StateFinal 38–13
Model
pred Bowling Green 10.6 · actual Bowling Green 25
winner Bowling Green ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ball State +12.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.4 · mkt 12.5 · mkt closer
Missouri @ Mississippi StateFinal 39–20
Model
pred Missouri 14.6 · actual Missouri 19
winner Missouri ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Missouri -9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.4 · mkt 9.5 · closer
Ole Miss @ FloridaFinal 17–24
Model
pred Ole Miss 15.5 · actual Florida 7
winner Ole Miss ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Ole Miss -13.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 22.5 · mkt 20.0 · mkt closer
Boise State @ WyomingFinal 17–13
Model
pred Boise State 16.8 · actual Boise State 4
winner Boise State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Wyoming +22.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 12.8 · mkt 18.0 · closer
SMU @ VirginiaFinal 33–7
Model
pred SMU 17.0 · actual SMU 26
winner SMU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned SMU -10.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.0 · mkt 15.5 · closer
Penn State @ MinnesotaFinal 26–25
Model
pred Penn State 18.4 · actual Penn State 1
winner Penn State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Penn State -11.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.4 · mkt 10.0 · mkt closer
South Alabama @ Southern MissFinal 35–14
Model
pred South Alabama 23.3 · actual South Alabama 21
winner South Alabama ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Southern Miss +24.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.3 · mkt 3.0 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.