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2024 · Week 12 · FBS · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 12 backtest · FBS · 54 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
38–1670%
ATS vs close
26–2848%
Model margin MAE
13.2
Market margin MAE
12.2
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
UL Monroe @ AuburnFinal 14–48
Model
pred Auburn 30.4 · actual Auburn 34
winner Auburn ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Auburn -24.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.6 · mkt 9.5 · closer
New Mexico State @ Texas A&MFinal 3–38
Model
pred Texas A&M 29.9 · actual Texas A&M 35
winner Texas A&M ✓
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico State +38.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.1 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
Kent State @ Miami (OH)Final 7–34
Model
pred Miami (OH) 21.6 · actual Miami (OH) 27
winner Miami (OH) ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kent State +30.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.4 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
UAB @ MemphisFinal 18–53
Model
pred Memphis 20.4 · actual Memphis 35
winner Memphis ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Memphis -16.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.6 · mkt 18.5 · closer
Virginia @ Notre DameFinal 14–35
Model
pred Notre Dame 20.2 · actual Notre Dame 21
winner Notre Dame ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Virginia +21.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.8 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Akron @ Northern IllinoisFinal 16–29
Model
pred Northern Illinois 19.2 · actual Northern Illinois 13
winner Northern Illinois ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Northern Illinois -14.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 6.2 · mkt 1.0 · mkt closer
Southern Miss @ Texas StateFinal 3–58
Model
pred Texas State 18.0 · actual Texas State 55
winner Texas State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Southern Miss +27.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 37.0 · mkt 27.5 · mkt closer
Nebraska @ USCFinal 20–28
Model
pred USC 14.8 · actual USC 8
winner USC ✓
ATS vs close
leaned USC -6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.8 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Boston College @ SMUFinal 28–38
Model
pred SMU 13.5 · actual SMU 10
winner SMU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Boston College +19.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.5 · mkt 9.0 · closer
Louisiana Tech @ Western KentuckyFinal 12–7
Model
pred Western Kentucky 13.4 · actual Louisiana Tech 5
winner Western Kentucky ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Western Kentucky -11.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.4 · mkt 16.5 · mkt closer
Florida International @ Jacksonville StateFinal 31–34
Model
pred Jacksonville State 12.9 · actual Jacksonville State 3
winner Jacksonville State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Jacksonville State -12.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 9.9 · mkt 9.5 · mkt closer
San Diego State @ UNLVFinal 20–41
Model
pred UNLV 12.5 · actual UNLV 21
winner UNLV ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San Diego State +21.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.5 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Central Michigan @ ToledoFinal 10–37
Model
pred Toledo 11.6 · actual Toledo 27
winner Toledo ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Central Michigan +15.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 15.4 · mkt 12.0 · mkt closer
Wake Forest @ North CarolinaFinal 24–31
Model
pred North Carolina 10.8 · actual North Carolina 7
winner North Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned North Carolina -10.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 3.8 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
Cincinnati @ Iowa StateFinal 17–34
Model
pred Iowa State 10.6 · actual Iowa State 17
winner Iowa State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa State -7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.4 · mkt 10.0 · closer
Arizona State @ Kansas StateFinal 24–14
Model
pred Kansas State 10.0 · actual Arizona State 10
winner Kansas State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Kansas State -7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.0 · mkt 17.5 · mkt closer
Syracuse @ CaliforniaFinal 33–25
Model
pred California 10.0 · actual Syracuse 8
winner California ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Syracuse +10.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 18.0 · mkt 18.5 · closer
UCLA @ WashingtonFinal 19–31
Model
pred Washington 9.4 · actual Washington 12
winner Washington ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Washington -5.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.6 · mkt 7.0 · closer
Wyoming @ Colorado StateFinal 10–24
Model
pred Colorado State 8.4 · actual Colorado State 14
winner Colorado State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Wyoming +8.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 5.6 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
Western Michigan @ Bowling GreenFinal 13–31
Model
pred Bowling Green 7.6 · actual Bowling Green 18
winner Bowling Green ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Western Michigan +9.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.4 · mkt 8.5 · mkt closer
Eastern Michigan @ OhioFinal 10–35
Model
pred Ohio 7.5 · actual Ohio 25
winner Ohio ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Eastern Michigan +10.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.5 · mkt 14.5 · mkt closer
South Alabama @ LouisianaFinal 24–22
Model
pred Louisiana 7.0 · actual South Alabama 2
winner Louisiana ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana -6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 9.0 · mkt 8.5 · mkt closer
Utah @ ColoradoFinal 24–49
Model
pred Colorado 6.3 · actual Colorado 25
winner Colorado ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Utah +13.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.7 · mkt 11.5 · mkt closer
Missouri @ South CarolinaFinal 30–34
Model
pred South Carolina 5.7 · actual South Carolina 4
winner South Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Missouri +10.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.7 · mkt 6.5 · closer
Rutgers @ MarylandFinal 31–17
Model
pred Maryland 4.8 · actual Rutgers 14
winner Maryland ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Maryland -4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.8 · mkt 18.5 · mkt closer
Troy @ Georgia SouthernFinal 28–20
Model
pred Georgia Southern 4.3 · actual Troy 8
winner Georgia Southern ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Troy +7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 12.3 · mkt 15.0 · closer
Baylor @ West VirginiaFinal 49–35
Model
pred West Virginia 4.3 · actual Baylor 14
winner West Virginia ✗
ATS vs close
leaned West Virginia +2.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.3 · mkt 12.0 · mkt closer
Coastal Carolina @ MarshallFinal 19–31
Model
pred Marshall 3.9 · actual Marshall 12
winner Marshall ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Coastal Carolina +7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.1 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
Michigan State @ IllinoisFinal 16–38
Model
pred Illinois 3.5 · actual Illinois 22
winner Illinois ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Illinois -2.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 18.5 · mkt 20.0 · closer
Kansas @ BYUFinal 17–13
Model
pred BYU 3.4 · actual Kansas 4
winner BYU ✗
ATS vs close
leaned BYU -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.4 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
Missouri State @ North Dakota StateFinal 21–59
Model
pred North Dakota State 3.3 · actual North Dakota State 38
winner North Dakota State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Missouri State +13.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 34.7 · mkt 24.5 · mkt closer
Houston @ ArizonaFinal 3–27
Model
pred Arizona 2.8 · actual Arizona 24
winner Arizona ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arizona -1.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 21.2 · mkt 23.0 · closer
Ball State @ BuffaloFinal 48–51
Model
pred Buffalo 1.5 · actual Buffalo 3
winner Buffalo ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ball State +3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.5 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Tennessee @ GeorgiaFinal 17–31
Model
pred Georgia 1.0 · actual Georgia 14
winner Georgia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Tennessee +8.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.0 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
Arkansas State @ Georgia StateFinal 27–20
Model
pred Georgia State 0.4 · actual Arkansas State 7
winner Georgia State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Arkansas State +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.4 · mkt 9.5 · closer
Florida Atlantic @ TempleFinal 15–18
Model
pred Florida Atlantic 0.9 · actual Temple 3
winner Florida Atlantic ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Florida Atlantic +2.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 3.9 · mkt 1.0 · mkt closer
LSU @ FloridaFinal 16–27
Model
pred LSU 1.1 · actual Florida 11
winner LSU ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Florida +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 12.1 · mkt 14.0 · closer
North Texas @ UTSAFinal 27–48
Model
pred North Texas 1.6 · actual UTSA 21
winner North Texas ✗
ATS vs close
leaned North Texas +1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 22.6 · mkt 19.5 · mkt closer
Hawai'i @ Utah StateFinal 10–55
Model
pred Hawai'i 2.8 · actual Utah State 45
winner Hawai'i ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Hawai'i -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 47.8 · mkt 47.5 · mkt closer
Oregon State @ Air ForceFinal 0–28
Model
pred Oregon State 4.1 · actual Air Force 28
winner Oregon State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 32.1 · mkt 30.5 · mkt closer
East Carolina @ TulsaFinal 38–31
Model
pred East Carolina 6.1 · actual East Carolina 7
winner East Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Tulsa +16.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.9 · mkt 9.5 · closer
Boise State @ San José StateFinal 42–21
Model
pred Boise State 7.0 · actual Boise State 21
winner Boise State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San José State +14.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.0 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
James Madison @ Old DominionFinal 35–32
Model
pred James Madison 8.0 · actual James Madison 3
winner James Madison ✓
ATS vs close
leaned James Madison -1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.0 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
South Florida @ CharlotteFinal 59–24
Model
pred South Florida 9.0 · actual South Florida 35
winner South Florida ✓
ATS vs close
leaned South Florida +1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 26.0 · mkt 36.5 · closer
Tulane @ NavyFinal 35–0
Model
pred Tulane 11.0 · actual Tulane 35
winner Tulane ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Tulane -7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 24.0 · mkt 27.5 · closer
Oregon @ WisconsinFinal 16–13
Model
pred Oregon 11.4 · actual Oregon 3
winner Oregon ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Wisconsin +13.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.4 · mkt 10.5 · closer
Washington State @ New MexicoFinal 35–38
Model
pred Washington State 11.8 · actual New Mexico 3
winner Washington State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Washington State -10.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.8 · mkt 13.5 · mkt closer
Louisville @ StanfordFinal 35–38
Model
pred Louisville 16.7 · actual Stanford 3
winner Louisville ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Stanford +21.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 19.7 · mkt 24.0 · closer
Clemson @ PittsburghFinal 24–20
Model
pred Clemson 16.9 · actual Clemson 4
winner Clemson ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Clemson -12.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.9 · mkt 8.0 · mkt closer
Sam Houston @ Kennesaw StateFinal 23–17
Model
pred Sam Houston 18.1 · actual Sam Houston 6
winner Sam Houston ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kennesaw State +21.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 12.1 · mkt 15.0 · closer
Ohio State @ NorthwesternFinal 31–7
Model
pred Ohio State 21.7 · actual Ohio State 24
winner Ohio State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Northwestern +28.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.3 · mkt 4.5 · closer
Texas @ ArkansasFinal 20–10
Model
pred Texas 21.9 · actual Texas 10
winner Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas -13.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.9 · mkt 3.0 · mkt closer
Liberty @ MassachusettsFinal 35–34
Model
pred Liberty 23.5 · actual Liberty 1
winner Liberty ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Liberty -16.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 22.5 · mkt 15.5 · mkt closer
Penn State @ PurdueFinal 49–10
Model
pred Penn State 27.3 · actual Penn State 39
winner Penn State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Purdue +30.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.7 · mkt 9.0 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.