CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 11 · FBS · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 11 backtest · FBS · 50 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
35–1570%
ATS vs close
28–21 · 1P57%
Model margin MAE
11.2
Market margin MAE
11.2
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Purdue @ Ohio StateFinal 0–45
Model
pred Ohio State 29.6 · actual Ohio State 45
winner Ohio State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Purdue +37.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 15.4 · mkt 7.5 · mkt closer
Nevada @ Boise StateFinal 21–28
Model
pred Boise State 25.8 · actual Boise State 7
winner Boise State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Boise State -23.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.8 · mkt 16.5 · mkt closer
Temple @ TulaneFinal 6–52
Model
pred Tulane 24.9 · actual Tulane 46
winner Tulane ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Temple +25.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 21.1 · mkt 20.5 · mkt closer
Florida @ TexasFinal 17–49
Model
pred Texas 20.1 · actual Texas 32
winner Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Florida +23.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.9 · mkt 9.0 · mkt closer
Washington @ Penn StateFinal 6–35
Model
pred Penn State 19.3 · actual Penn State 29
winner Penn State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Penn State -13.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.7 · mkt 15.5 · closer
Maryland @ OregonFinal 18–39
Model
pred Oregon 18.7 · actual Oregon 21
winner Oregon ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Maryland +24.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.3 · mkt 3.0 · closer
Utah State @ Washington StateFinal 28–49
Model
pred Washington State 18.0 · actual Washington State 21
winner Washington State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Utah State +20.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 3.0 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Florida State @ Notre DameFinal 3–52
Model
pred Notre Dame 17.3 · actual Notre Dame 49
winner Notre Dame ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Florida State +25.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 31.7 · mkt 23.5 · mkt closer
Rice @ MemphisFinal 20–27
Model
pred Memphis 14.5 · actual Memphis 7
winner Memphis ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Memphis -7.0Push
margin err: model 7.5 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
Georgia State @ James MadisonFinal 7–38
Model
pred James Madison 12.7 · actual James Madison 31
winner James Madison ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia State +14.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.3 · mkt 16.5 · mkt closer
Mississippi State @ TennesseeFinal 14–33
Model
pred Tennessee 11.6 · actual Tennessee 19
winner Tennessee ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Mississippi State +26.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.4 · mkt 7.5 · closer
Florida Atlantic @ East CarolinaFinal 14–49
Model
pred East Carolina 9.6 · actual East Carolina 35
winner East Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned East Carolina -7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 25.4 · mkt 27.5 · closer
Kennesaw State @ UTEPFinal 35–43
Model
pred UTEP 8.7 · actual UTEP 8
winner UTEP ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UTEP -4.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.7 · mkt 3.5 · closer
Georgia @ Ole MissFinal 10–28
Model
pred Ole Miss 8.3 · actual Ole Miss 18
winner Ole Miss ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ole Miss +2.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.7 · mkt 20.0 · closer
Arkansas State @ LouisianaFinal 19–55
Model
pred Louisiana 7.7 · actual Louisiana 36
winner Louisiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arkansas State +14.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 28.3 · mkt 22.0 · mkt closer
Oklahoma @ MissouriFinal 23–30
Model
pred Missouri 7.3 · actual Missouri 7
winner Missouri ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Missouri +3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.3 · mkt 10.5 · closer
Navy @ South FloridaFinal 28–7
Model
pred South Florida 7.1 · actual Navy 21
winner South Florida ✗
ATS vs close
leaned South Florida +4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 28.1 · mkt 16.5 · mkt closer
New Mexico @ San Diego StateFinal 21–16
Model
pred San Diego State 6.5 · actual New Mexico 5
winner San Diego State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned San Diego State -1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.5 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
Syracuse @ Boston CollegeFinal 31–37
Model
pred Boston College 5.6 · actual Boston College 6
winner Boston College ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Boston College -3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.4 · mkt 3.0 · closer
BYU @ UtahFinal 22–21
Model
pred Utah 4.8 · actual BYU 1
winner Utah ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Utah +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.8 · mkt 2.0 · mkt closer
San José State @ Oregon StateFinal 24–13
Model
pred Oregon State 4.1 · actual San José State 11
winner Oregon State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon State -3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 15.1 · mkt 14.0 · mkt closer
UCF @ Arizona StateFinal 31–35
Model
pred Arizona State 3.9 · actual Arizona State 4
winner Arizona State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Arizona State -2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.1 · mkt 1.5 · closer
Oklahoma State @ TCUFinal 13–38
Model
pred TCU 3.7 · actual TCU 25
winner TCU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma State +10.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 21.3 · mkt 14.5 · mkt closer
Virginia @ PittsburghFinal 24–19
Model
pred Pittsburgh 2.4 · actual Virginia 5
winner Pittsburgh ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Virginia +7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.4 · mkt 12.5 · closer
Northern Illinois @ Western MichiganFinal 42–28
Model
pred Western Michigan 1.3 · actual Northern Illinois 14
winner Western Michigan ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Western Michigan +2.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 15.3 · mkt 12.0 · mkt closer
West Virginia @ CincinnatiFinal 31–24
Model
pred Cincinnati 0.6 · actual West Virginia 7
winner Cincinnati ✗
ATS vs close
leaned West Virginia +5.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.6 · mkt 12.5 · closer
Colorado @ Texas TechFinal 41–27
Model
pred Texas Tech 0.5 · actual Colorado 14
winner Texas Tech ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Texas Tech +4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.5 · mkt 9.5 · mkt closer
App State @ Coastal CarolinaFinal 24–38
Model
pred Coastal Carolina 0.0 · actual Coastal Carolina 14
winner Coastal Carolina ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Coastal Carolina +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.0 · mkt 16.5 · closer
Michigan @ IndianaFinal 15–20
Model
pred Michigan 1.4 · actual Indiana 5
winner Michigan ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Michigan +14.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.4 · mkt 9.5 · closer
Duke @ NC StateFinal 29–19
Model
pred Duke 1.5 · actual Duke 10
winner Duke ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Duke +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.5 · mkt 13.0 · closer
Iowa @ UCLAFinal 17–20
Model
pred Iowa 1.6 · actual UCLA 3
winner Iowa ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UCLA +6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.6 · mkt 9.5 · closer
Clemson @ Virginia TechFinal 24–14
Model
pred Clemson 2.4 · actual Clemson 10
winner Clemson ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Virginia Tech +5.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.6 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
Fresno State @ Air ForceFinal 28–36
Model
pred Fresno State 2.6 · actual Air Force 8
winner Fresno State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Air Force +9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.6 · mkt 17.5 · closer
UConn @ UABFinal 31–23
Model
pred UConn 4.1 · actual UConn 8
winner UConn ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UAB +7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 3.9 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Iowa State @ KansasFinal 36–45
Model
pred Iowa State 5.2 · actual Kansas 9
winner Iowa State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa State -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.2 · mkt 11.5 · mkt closer
Miami @ Georgia TechFinal 23–28
Model
pred Miami 5.8 · actual Georgia Tech 5
winner Miami ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia Tech +9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.8 · mkt 14.5 · closer
Minnesota @ RutgersFinal 19–26
Model
pred Minnesota 6.1 · actual Rutgers 7
winner Minnesota ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Rutgers +6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 13.1 · mkt 13.5 · closer
UNLV @ Hawai'iFinal 29–27
Model
pred UNLV 7.7 · actual UNLV 2
winner UNLV ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Hawai'i +12.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.7 · mkt 10.5 · closer
Marshall @ Southern MissFinal 37–3
Model
pred Marshall 8.5 · actual Marshall 34
winner Marshall ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Southern Miss +13.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 25.5 · mkt 20.5 · mkt closer
Alabama @ LSUFinal 42–13
Model
pred Alabama 8.9 · actual Alabama 29
winner Alabama ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Alabama -2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 20.1 · mkt 26.5 · closer
Bowling Green @ Central MichiganFinal 23–13
Model
pred Bowling Green 9.2 · actual Bowling Green 10
winner Bowling Green ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Central Michigan +15.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.8 · mkt 5.5 · closer
California @ Wake ForestFinal 46–36
Model
pred California 9.6 · actual California 10
winner California ✓
ATS vs close
leaned California -7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.4 · mkt 3.0 · closer
South Carolina @ VanderbiltFinal 28–7
Model
pred South Carolina 10.1 · actual South Carolina 21
winner South Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned South Carolina -6.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.9 · mkt 15.0 · closer
Army @ North TexasFinal 14–3
Model
pred Army 10.2 · actual Army 11
winner Army ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Army -6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.8 · mkt 4.5 · closer
Ohio @ Kent StateFinal 41–0
Model
pred Ohio 10.6 · actual Ohio 41
winner Ohio ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kent State +20.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 30.4 · mkt 20.5 · mkt closer
Jacksonville State @ Louisiana TechFinal 44–37
Model
pred Jacksonville State 11.0 · actual Jacksonville State 7
winner Jacksonville State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Jacksonville State -10.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 4.0 · mkt 3.0 · mkt closer
Texas State @ UL MonroeFinal 38–17
Model
pred Texas State 12.4 · actual Texas State 21
winner Texas State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas State -9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.6 · mkt 11.5 · closer
Liberty @ Middle TennesseeFinal 37–17
Model
pred Liberty 13.2 · actual Liberty 20
winner Liberty ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Liberty -12.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.8 · mkt 7.5 · closer
Miami (OH) @ Ball StateFinal 27–21
Model
pred Miami (OH) 15.3 · actual Miami (OH) 6
winner Miami (OH) ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Miami (OH) -13.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 9.3 · mkt 7.0 · mkt closer
Western Kentucky @ New Mexico StateFinal 41–28
Model
pred Western Kentucky 15.6 · actual Western Kentucky 13
winner Western Kentucky ✓
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico State +18.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.6 · mkt 5.0 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.