CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 10 · FBS · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 10 backtest · FBS · 48 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
27–2156%
ATS vs close
18–28 · 1P39%
Model margin MAE
14.9
Market margin MAE
13.5
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Kennesaw State @ Western KentuckyFinal 14–31
Model
pred Western Kentucky 23.2 · actual Western Kentucky 17
winner Western Kentucky ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kennesaw State +23.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.2 · mkt 6.5 · closer
San Diego State @ Boise StateFinal 24–56
Model
pred Boise State 21.2 · actual Boise State 32
winner Boise State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San Diego State +24.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.8 · mkt 7.5 · mkt closer
Air Force @ ArmyFinal 3–20
Model
pred Army 19.2 · actual Army 17
winner Army ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Army -18.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 2.2 · mkt 1.0 · mkt closer
Kentucky @ TennesseeFinal 18–28
Model
pred Tennessee 17.3 · actual Tennessee 10
winner Tennessee ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Kentucky +17.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.3 · mkt 7.5 · closer
Louisville @ ClemsonFinal 33–21
Model
pred Clemson 15.4 · actual Louisville 12
winner Clemson ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Clemson -11.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 27.4 · mkt 23.0 · mkt closer
Massachusetts @ Mississippi StateFinal 20–45
Model
pred Mississippi State 15.0 · actual Mississippi State 25
winner Mississippi State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Massachusetts +19.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.0 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
UL Monroe @ MarshallFinal 23–28
Model
pred Marshall 14.7 · actual Marshall 5
winner Marshall ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Marshall -10.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 9.7 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
Hawai'i @ Fresno StateFinal 21–20
Model
pred Fresno State 14.1 · actual Hawai'i 1
winner Fresno State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Fresno State -12.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 15.1 · mkt 13.5 · mkt closer
Texas Tech @ Iowa StateFinal 23–22
Model
pred Iowa State 13.5 · actual Texas Tech 1
winner Iowa State ✗
ATS vs close
model matched the close — no lean
margin err: model 14.5 · mkt 14.5 · tie
Florida @ GeorgiaFinal 20–34
Model
pred Georgia 13.1 · actual Georgia 14
winner Georgia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Florida +14.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.9 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Vanderbilt @ AuburnFinal 17–7
Model
pred Auburn 10.8 · actual Vanderbilt 10
winner Auburn ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Auburn -7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.8 · mkt 17.5 · mkt closer
Duke @ MiamiFinal 31–53
Model
pred Miami 10.7 · actual Miami 22
winner Miami ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Duke +21.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.3 · mkt 1.0 · mkt closer
Georgia Southern @ South AlabamaFinal 34–30
Model
pred South Alabama 9.8 · actual Georgia Southern 4
winner South Alabama ✗
ATS vs close
leaned South Alabama -5.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.8 · mkt 9.5 · mkt closer
Stanford @ NC StateFinal 28–59
Model
pred NC State 8.7 · actual NC State 31
winner NC State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Stanford +9.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 22.3 · mkt 21.5 · mkt closer
Wyoming @ New MexicoFinal 49–45
Model
pred New Mexico 7.9 · actual Wyoming 4
winner New Mexico ✗
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico -7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.9 · mkt 11.5 · mkt closer
Louisiana @ Texas StateFinal 23–17
Model
pred Texas State 6.1 · actual Louisiana 6
winner Texas State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Texas State -4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.1 · mkt 10.0 · mkt closer
Pittsburgh @ SMUFinal 25–48
Model
pred SMU 5.5 · actual SMU 23
winner SMU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Pittsburgh +7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.5 · mkt 16.0 · mkt closer
Jacksonville State @ LibertyFinal 31–21
Model
pred Liberty 5.3 · actual Jacksonville State 10
winner Liberty ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Liberty -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 15.3 · mkt 12.5 · mkt closer
Arizona State @ Oklahoma StateFinal 42–21
Model
pred Oklahoma State 4.3 · actual Arizona State 21
winner Oklahoma State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Oklahoma State +5.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 25.3 · mkt 16.0 · mkt closer
New Mexico State @ Florida InternationalFinal 13–34
Model
pred Florida International 4.0 · actual Florida International 21
winner Florida International ✓
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico State +7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.0 · mkt 14.0 · mkt closer
Georgia State @ UConnFinal 27–34
Model
pred UConn 3.9 · actual UConn 7
winner UConn ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia State +7.0Push
margin err: model 3.1 · mkt 0.0 · mkt closer
Old Dominion @ App StateFinal 20–28
Model
pred App State 3.4 · actual App State 8
winner App State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned App State +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.6 · mkt 10.5 · closer
Ohio State @ Penn StateFinal 20–13
Model
pred Penn State 3.3 · actual Ohio State 7
winner Penn State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Penn State +3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.3 · mkt 4.0 · mkt closer
Middle Tennessee @ UTEPFinal 20–13
Model
pred UTEP 2.9 · actual Middle Tennessee 7
winner UTEP ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UTEP -2.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 9.9 · mkt 9.0 · mkt closer
Wisconsin @ IowaFinal 10–42
Model
pred Iowa 2.6 · actual Iowa 32
winner Iowa ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Iowa -2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 29.4 · mkt 29.5 · closer
Louisiana Tech @ Sam HoustonFinal 3–9
Model
pred Sam Houston 2.3 · actual Sam Houston 6
winner Sam Houston ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Louisiana Tech +10.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.7 · mkt 4.5 · closer
TCU @ BaylorFinal 34–37
Model
pred Baylor 1.9 · actual Baylor 3
winner Baylor ✓
ATS vs close
leaned TCU +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 1.1 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
UCLA @ NebraskaFinal 27–20
Model
pred Nebraska 1.9 · actual UCLA 7
winner Nebraska ✗
ATS vs close
leaned UCLA +7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.9 · mkt 14.5 · closer
Coastal Carolina @ TroyFinal 24–38
Model
pred Coastal Carolina 0.7 · actual Troy 14
winner Coastal Carolina ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Troy +4.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.7 · mkt 18.0 · closer
Navy @ RiceFinal 10–24
Model
pred Navy 0.8 · actual Rice 14
winner Navy ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Rice +12.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.8 · mkt 26.5 · closer
USC @ WashingtonFinal 21–26
Model
pred USC 1.0 · actual Washington 5
winner USC ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Washington +2.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.0 · mkt 7.0 · closer
North Carolina @ Florida StateFinal 35–11
Model
pred North Carolina 1.3 · actual North Carolina 24
winner North Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Florida State +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 22.7 · mkt 21.5 · mkt closer
South Florida @ Florida AtlanticFinal 44–21
Model
pred South Florida 1.7 · actual South Florida 23
winner South Florida ✓
ATS vs close
leaned South Florida -1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 21.3 · mkt 21.5 · closer
Oregon @ MichiganFinal 38–17
Model
pred Oregon 1.7 · actual Oregon 21
winner Oregon ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Michigan +14.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 19.3 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
Buffalo @ AkronFinal 41–30
Model
pred Buffalo 1.7 · actual Buffalo 11
winner Buffalo ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Buffalo -1.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.3 · mkt 10.0 · closer
Minnesota @ IllinoisFinal 25–17
Model
pred Minnesota 3.3 · actual Minnesota 8
winner Minnesota ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Minnesota -2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.7 · mkt 5.5 · closer
Arizona @ UCFFinal 12–56
Model
pred Arizona 3.5 · actual UCF 44
winner Arizona ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Arizona +6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 47.5 · mkt 37.5 · mkt closer
Colorado State @ NevadaFinal 38–21
Model
pred Colorado State 4.1 · actual Colorado State 17
winner Colorado State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado State -2.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 12.9 · mkt 15.0 · closer
Tulsa @ UABFinal 21–59
Model
pred Tulsa 6.6 · actual UAB 38
winner Tulsa ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Tulsa +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 44.6 · mkt 35.5 · mkt closer
Texas A&M @ South CarolinaFinal 20–44
Model
pred Texas A&M 6.7 · actual South Carolina 24
winner Texas A&M ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Texas A&M -3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 30.7 · mkt 27.0 · mkt closer
Memphis @ UTSAFinal 36–44
Model
pred Memphis 7.3 · actual UTSA 8
winner Memphis ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Memphis -7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 15.3 · mkt 15.0 · mkt closer
Northwestern @ PurdueFinal 26–20
Model
pred Northwestern 7.5 · actual Northwestern 6
winner Northwestern ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Northwestern +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.5 · mkt 9.0 · closer
Indiana @ Michigan StateFinal 47–10
Model
pred Indiana 9.0 · actual Indiana 37
winner Indiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Indiana -7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 28.0 · mkt 29.5 · closer
Kansas State @ HoustonFinal 19–24
Model
pred Kansas State 9.1 · actual Houston 5
winner Kansas State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Houston +12.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.1 · mkt 17.5 · closer
Toledo @ Eastern MichiganFinal 29–28
Model
pred Toledo 10.8 · actual Toledo 1
winner Toledo ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Toledo -10.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 9.8 · mkt 9.0 · mkt closer
Virginia Tech @ SyracuseFinal 31–38
Model
pred Virginia Tech 11.4 · actual Syracuse 7
winner Virginia Tech ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Virginia Tech -3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 18.4 · mkt 10.5 · mkt closer
Tulane @ CharlotteFinal 34–3
Model
pred Tulane 13.1 · actual Tulane 31
winner Tulane ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Charlotte +14.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.9 · mkt 16.5 · mkt closer
Ole Miss @ ArkansasFinal 63–31
Model
pred Ole Miss 13.9 · actual Ole Miss 32
winner Ole Miss ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ole Miss -8.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 18.1 · mkt 24.0 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.