CFB Betting Edge
2024 · Week 1 · FBS · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 1 backtest · FBS · 41 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
29–1271%
ATS vs close
22–1954%
Model margin MAE
14.1
Market margin MAE
13.2
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Temple @ OklahomaFinal 3–51
Model
pred Oklahoma 39.3 · actual Oklahoma 48
winner Oklahoma ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Temple +43.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.7 · mkt 5.0 · mkt closer
Akron @ Ohio StateFinal 6–52
Model
pred Ohio State 38.7 · actual Ohio State 46
winner Ohio State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Akron +49.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.3 · mkt 3.5 · mkt closer
Colorado State @ TexasFinal 0–52
Model
pred Texas 38.4 · actual Texas 52
winner Texas ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Texas -35.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 13.6 · mkt 17.0 · closer
Western Kentucky @ AlabamaFinal 0–63
Model
pred Alabama 35.2 · actual Alabama 63
winner Alabama ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Alabama -34.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 27.8 · mkt 29.0 · closer
Fresno State @ MichiganFinal 10–30
Model
pred Michigan 30.2 · actual Michigan 20
winner Michigan ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Michigan -21.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.2 · mkt 1.0 · mkt closer
New Mexico @ ArizonaFinal 39–61
Model
pred Arizona 27.7 · actual Arizona 22
winner Arizona ✓
ATS vs close
leaned New Mexico +29.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.7 · mkt 7.0 · closer
Kennesaw State @ UTSAFinal 16–28
Model
pred UTSA 27.1 · actual UTSA 12
winner UTSA ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UTSA -24.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 15.1 · mkt 12.0 · mkt closer
Kent State @ PittsburghFinal 24–55
Model
pred Pittsburgh 25.1 · actual Pittsburgh 31
winner Pittsburgh ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Pittsburgh -23.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.9 · mkt 7.5 · closer
UTEP @ NebraskaFinal 7–40
Model
pred Nebraska 22.7 · actual Nebraska 33
winner Nebraska ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UTEP +27.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.3 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
Western Michigan @ WisconsinFinal 14–28
Model
pred Wisconsin 21.5 · actual Wisconsin 14
winner Wisconsin ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Western Michigan +24.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.5 · mkt 10.0 · closer
North Dakota State @ ColoradoFinal 26–31
Model
pred Colorado 20.7 · actual Colorado 5
winner Colorado ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Colorado -9.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 15.7 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
UConn @ MarylandFinal 7–50
Model
pred Maryland 20.7 · actual Maryland 43
winner Maryland ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Maryland -19.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 22.3 · mkt 24.0 · closer
Georgia State @ Georgia TechFinal 12–35
Model
pred Georgia Tech 18.9 · actual Georgia Tech 23
winner Georgia Tech ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia State +20.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 4.1 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Southern Miss @ KentuckyFinal 0–31
Model
pred Kentucky 18.3 · actual Kentucky 31
winner Kentucky ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Southern Miss +25.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.7 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
Florida International @ IndianaFinal 7–31
Model
pred Indiana 17.9 · actual Indiana 24
winner Indiana ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Florida International +25.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.1 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Sacramento State @ San José StateFinal 24–42
Model
pred San José State 16.6 · actual San José State 18
winner San José State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned San José State -2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.4 · mkt 15.5 · closer
Nevada @ TroyFinal 28–26
Model
pred Troy 15.2 · actual Nevada 2
winner Troy ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Troy -7.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.2 · mkt 9.5 · mkt closer
Old Dominion @ South CarolinaFinal 19–23
Model
pred South Carolina 15.0 · actual South Carolina 4
winner South Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Old Dominion +20.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 11.0 · mkt 16.5 · closer
Boston College @ Florida StateFinal 28–13
Model
pred Florida State 14.4 · actual Boston College 15
winner Florida State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Boston College +16.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 29.4 · mkt 31.5 · closer
North Texas @ South AlabamaFinal 52–38
Model
pred South Alabama 12.3 · actual North Texas 14
winner South Alabama ✗
ATS vs close
leaned South Alabama -6.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 26.3 · mkt 20.0 · mkt closer
Florida Atlantic @ Michigan StateFinal 10–16
Model
pred Michigan State 11.2 · actual Michigan State 6
winner Michigan State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Florida Atlantic +12.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.2 · mkt 6.0 · closer
Ohio @ SyracuseFinal 22–38
Model
pred Syracuse 9.6 · actual Syracuse 16
winner Syracuse ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ohio +17.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.4 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Sam Houston @ RiceFinal 34–14
Model
pred Rice 8.9 · actual Sam Houston 20
winner Rice ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Sam Houston +9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 28.9 · mkt 29.5 · closer
Clemson @ GeorgiaFinal 3–34
Model
pred Georgia 8.1 · actual Georgia 31
winner Georgia ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Clemson +10.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 22.9 · mkt 20.5 · mkt closer
Coastal Carolina @ Jacksonville StateFinal 55–27
Model
pred Jacksonville State 6.1 · actual Coastal Carolina 28
winner Jacksonville State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Jacksonville State -3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 34.1 · mkt 31.5 · mkt closer
USC @ LSUFinal 27–20
Model
pred LSU 5.8 · actual USC 7
winner LSU ✗
ATS vs close
leaned LSU -4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.8 · mkt 11.0 · mkt closer
UNLV @ HoustonFinal 27–7
Model
pred Houston 5.7 · actual UNLV 20
winner Houston ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Houston -2.3Miss ✗
margin err: model 25.7 · mkt 22.3 · mkt closer
Miami (OH) @ NorthwesternFinal 6–13
Model
pred Northwestern 3.8 · actual Northwestern 7
winner Northwestern ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Northwestern -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.2 · mkt 3.5 · closer
Wyoming @ Arizona StateFinal 7–48
Model
pred Arizona State 3.7 · actual Arizona State 41
winner Arizona State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Wyoming +6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 37.3 · mkt 34.5 · mkt closer
Miami @ FloridaFinal 41–17
Model
pred Florida 1.4 · actual Miami 24
winner Florida ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Florida +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 25.4 · mkt 21.5 · mkt closer
Eastern Michigan @ MassachusettsFinal 28–14
Model
pred Massachusetts 0.8 · actual Eastern Michigan 14
winner Massachusetts ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Eastern Michigan +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 14.8 · mkt 16.5 · closer
Notre Dame @ Texas A&MFinal 23–13
Model
pred Texas A&M 0.5 · actual Notre Dame 10
winner Texas A&M ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Notre Dame +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 10.5 · mkt 12.5 · closer
North Carolina @ MinnesotaFinal 19–17
Model
pred North Carolina 6.1 · actual North Carolina 2
winner North Carolina ✓
ATS vs close
leaned North Carolina -1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.1 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
Boise State @ Georgia SouthernFinal 56–45
Model
pred Boise State 8.6 · actual Boise State 11
winner Boise State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Georgia Southern +12.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.4 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
TCU @ StanfordFinal 34–27
Model
pred TCU 8.7 · actual TCU 7
winner TCU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned TCU -8.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 1.7 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Penn State @ West VirginiaFinal 34–12
Model
pred Penn State 12.9 · actual Penn State 22
winner Penn State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Penn State -7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.1 · mkt 14.5 · closer
Virginia Tech @ VanderbiltFinal 27–34
Model
pred Virginia Tech 13.8 · actual Vanderbilt 7
winner Virginia Tech ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Virginia Tech -13.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 20.8 · mkt 20.5 · mkt closer
Florida State @ Georgia TechFinal 21–24
Model
pred Florida State 14.1 · actual Georgia Tech 3
winner Florida State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Florida State -10.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 17.1 · mkt 13.5 · mkt closer
James Madison @ CharlotteFinal 30–7
Model
pred James Madison 15.1 · actual James Madison 23
winner James Madison ✓
ATS vs close
leaned James Madison -7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.9 · mkt 16.0 · closer
UCLA @ Hawai'iFinal 16–13
Model
pred UCLA 16.3 · actual UCLA 3
winner UCLA ✓
ATS vs close
leaned UCLA -13.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.3 · mkt 10.5 · mkt closer
SMU @ NevadaFinal 29–24
Model
pred SMU 20.9 · actual SMU 5
winner SMU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Nevada +27.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 15.9 · mkt 22.5 · closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.