CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 9 · Sun Belt · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Full Slate — Sun Belt · Week 9 · 6 games
Troy @ James MadisonJames Madison 86%
Model
James Madison -15.4 · mkt James Madison —
proj Troy 21.0 · James Madison 36.4
Total
proj 57.3
Marshall @ Old DominionOld Dominion 72%
Model
Old Dominion -8.1 · mkt Old Dominion —
proj Marshall 21.5 · Old Dominion 29.6
Total
proj 51.1
App State @ Georgia SouthernGeorgia Southern 70%
Model
Georgia Southern -7.6 · mkt Georgia Southern —
proj App State 26.0 · Georgia Southern 33.6
Total
proj 59.6
Louisiana Tech @ South AlabamaSouth Alabama 56%
Model
South Alabama -2.1 · mkt South Alabama —
proj Louisiana Tech 27.7 · South Alabama 29.9
Total
proj 57.6
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia StateCoastal Carolina 52%
Model
Coastal Carolina -0.7 · mkt Coastal Carolina —
proj Coastal Carolina 27.7 · Georgia State 27.1
Total
proj 54.8
Southern Miss @ UL MonroeSouthern Miss 75%
Model
Southern Miss -9.7 · mkt Southern Miss —
proj Southern Miss 35.2 · UL Monroe 25.5
Total
proj 60.7
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.