CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 8 · Sun Belt · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Sun Belt · Week 8 · 6 games
South Alabama @ MarshallMarshall 80%
Model
Marshall -11.9 · mkt Marshall —
proj South Alabama 20.9 · Marshall 32.8
Total
proj 53.7
Georgia State @ Arkansas StateArkansas State 74%
Model
Arkansas State -9.3 · mkt Arkansas State —
proj Georgia State 24.8 · Arkansas State 34.1
Total
proj 58.9
Louisiana @ Southern MissSouthern Miss 61%
Model
Southern Miss -3.8 · mkt Southern Miss —
proj Louisiana 24.6 · Southern Miss 28.4
Total
proj 53.1
Old Dominion @ Louisiana TechOld Dominion 55%
Model
Old Dominion -1.6 · mkt Old Dominion —
proj Old Dominion 28.0 · Louisiana Tech 26.4
Total
proj 54.4
James Madison @ App StateJames Madison 88%
Model
James Madison -16.6 · mkt James Madison —
proj James Madison 35.0 · App State 18.5
Total
proj 53.5
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.