CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 7 · Sun Belt · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Sun Belt · Week 7 · 6 games
Georgia State @ James MadisonJames Madison 98%
Model
James Madison -28.5 · mkt James Madison —
proj Georgia State 13.9 · James Madison 42.4
Total
proj 56.2
Georgia Southern @ Old DominionOld Dominion 79%
Model
Old Dominion -11.4 · mkt Old Dominion —
proj Georgia Southern 23.1 · Old Dominion 34.5
Total
proj 57.6
Arkansas State @ Southern MissSouthern Miss 59%
Model
Southern Miss -3.2 · mkt Southern Miss —
proj Arkansas State 26.9 · Southern Miss 30.1
Total
proj 57.0
App State @ Coastal CarolinaCoastal Carolina 53%
Model
Coastal Carolina -1.2 · mkt Coastal Carolina —
proj App State 27.7 · Coastal Carolina 28.9
Total
proj 56.6
Troy @ LouisianaLouisiana 51%
Model
Louisiana -0.3 · mkt Louisiana —
proj Troy 26.9 · Louisiana 27.2
Total
proj 54.1
Louisiana Tech @ UL MonroeLouisiana Tech 74%
Model
Louisiana Tech -9.2 · mkt Louisiana Tech —
proj Louisiana Tech 34.9 · UL Monroe 25.8
Total
proj 60.7
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.