CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 6 · Sun Belt · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Sun Belt · Week 6 · 6 games
Coastal Carolina @ MarshallMarshall 75%
Model
Marshall -9.5 · mkt Marshall —
proj Coastal Carolina 22.1 · Marshall 31.7
Total
proj 53.8
Southern Miss @ TroyTroy 71%
Model
Troy -7.7 · mkt Troy —
proj Southern Miss 24.6 · Troy 32.2
Total
proj 56.8
Louisiana @ Louisiana TechLouisiana Tech 69%
Model
Louisiana Tech -7.1 · mkt Louisiana Tech —
proj Louisiana 22.8 · Louisiana Tech 29.9
Total
proj 52.8
South Alabama @ Arkansas StateArkansas State 68%
Model
Arkansas State -6.6 · mkt Arkansas State —
proj South Alabama 23.9 · Arkansas State 30.5
Total
proj 54.3
James Madison @ Georgia SouthernJames Madison 85%
Model
James Madison -15.0 · mkt James Madison —
proj James Madison 35.2 · Georgia Southern 20.2
Total
proj 55.4
Old Dominion @ App StateOld Dominion 87%
Model
Old Dominion -16.0 · mkt Old Dominion —
proj Old Dominion 34.9 · App State 18.8
Total
proj 53.7
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.