CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 5 · Sun Belt · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllSECBig TenBig 12ACCPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAFBS Independents
Full Slate — Sun Belt · Week 5 · 6 games
Marshall @ James MadisonJames Madison 79%
Model
James Madison -11.5 · mkt James Madison —
proj Marshall 23.0 · James Madison 34.5
Total
proj 57.4
UL Monroe @ South AlabamaSouth Alabama 78%
Model
South Alabama -10.9 · mkt South Alabama —
proj UL Monroe 21.4 · South Alabama 32.2
Total
proj 53.6
Arkansas State @ LouisianaLouisiana 58%
Model
Louisiana -2.9 · mkt Louisiana —
proj Arkansas State 26.9 · Louisiana 29.7
Total
proj 56.6
Army @ Louisiana TechArmy 54%
Model
Army -1.5 · mkt Army —
proj Army 26.4 · Louisiana Tech 24.9
Total
proj 51.3
Georgia Southern @ Coastal CarolinaGeorgia Southern 58%
Model
Georgia Southern -2.8 · mkt Georgia Southern —
proj Georgia Southern 27.7 · Coastal Carolina 25.0
Total
proj 52.7
Old Dominion @ Georgia StateOld Dominion 89%
Model
Old Dominion -17.1 · mkt Old Dominion —
proj Old Dominion 37.9 · Georgia State 20.8
Total
proj 58.7
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.